Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This looks pretty good to me. Unless it were to turn due east or e-ne from here this would be a big hit for coastal sections. It's a hair to the left of last night's run. WX/PT 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Omg 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 971 inside the bench mark 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 euro looks pretty much similar to 0z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:18 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 971 inside the bench mark Expand Now we are cooking with peanut oil! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro looks like about 12-18" snow. I do not have precip maps but given that track, it's a historic storm for coastal sections. WX/PT 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:18 PM, Rjay said: Omg Expand Sir would you care to expand on that or will OMG do ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:19 PM, Wxoutlooksblog said: Euro looks like about 12-18" snow. I do not have precip maps but given that track, it's a historic storm for coastal sections. WX/PT Expand It's a slow long duration storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Almost an elongation of the low which could help get the precip further back west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Crawling. It stalls for like 8 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:18 PM, Wxoutlooksblog said: This looks pretty good to me. Unless it were to turn due east or e-ne from here this would be a big hit for coastal sections. It's a hair to the left of last night's run. WX/PT Expand Too bad the surface low isn't placed on that closed contour to its west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Looks perfectly fine to me for 90% of us, maybe not the well NW areas. Low really gets going a good bit E of NC but makes a sharp turn north with the bombing upper air low. Very nice phase but a bit delayed from last run. Not surprising since other models are still decently east of the Euro. Maybe some sort of compromise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:18 PM, Rjay said: Omg Expand Thats a bomb. That legit is a bomb. Holy F. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Looks like the end result is similar to the 06z control in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:21 PM, RDRY said: Too bad the surface low isn't placed on that closed contour to its west. Expand It actually might be. Models have issues resolving this type of energy and you need to do some investigative work. I would lean towards the west contours given how the storm is exploding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:21 PM, Franklin0529 said: Crawling. It stalls for like 8 hrs Expand That’s the capture from the bombing upper air and surface lows catching up to each other. No question if that happens people will get 20”+ where the heavy snow banding can set up. There will be a behemoth moist fetch in the warm Conveyor belt coming into it as well being lifted over the cold air. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:14 PM, Violentweatherfan said: January 6/7 1996 was a pure Miller A. While the Boxing Day storm may have grazed the GOM, it really developed off the Atlantic coast. With Miller A storms everyone gets snow and there really isn't much of a screw zone as there are with Miller B storms. Expand They were both miller A storms. Both had very similar 500mb setups. The difference was the incredible blocking that occurred with the 96 storm. A meteorite would have gotten stuck under that banana high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:20 PM, MJO812 said: It's a slow long duration storm Expand I think that's still a little uncertain. Certainly forward movement has slowed on all of the models. I'm just a little concerned because it's still early. The tick further left with the track and we're looking at an even bigger more intense storm. Given the bombogenesis and the current track, the intensity of the snow could be amazing....we'd be talking 1-3"/hour rates. We'll see what happens in the next 2-3 run cycles. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:20 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: Sir would you care to expand on that or will OMG do ? Expand Sick run for our subforum. Not too much else to say. Trying to work and be a weenie at the same time. 8 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Temps in the teens to low 20s with a sub 974mb storm just sitting there for 8+ hours? Sign me the eff up for that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:23 PM, North and West said: Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections. Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day. . Expand This area is still going to do well. You will be measuring snow in inches however while SNE and E LI measure in feet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:23 PM, North and West said: Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections. Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day. . Expand Excellent points--things can change radically 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Given the rapid intensification you could easily see the low do a NW jog before moving NNE/NE This happens as the surface and ULL catch up to each other. The inland cutter did something like that causing those westward shifts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 SNJ gets crushed with over 20 inches of snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:24 PM, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think that's still a little uncertain. Certainly forward movement has slowed on all of the models. I'm just a little concerned because it's still early. The tick further left with the track and we're looking at an even bigger more intense storm. Given the bombogenesis and the current track, the intensity of the snow could be amazing....we'd be talking 1-3"/hour rates. We'll see what happens in the next 2-3 run cycles. WX/PT Expand Someone is going to cook under a band of 3-5" per hour with these dynamics. Probably going to be a screw zone just West of where that sets up. The wind is also going to be factor, limiting ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 any clown maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 6:26 PM, NJwx85 said: Someone is going to cook under a band of 3-5" per hour with these dynamics. Probably going to be a screw zone just West of where that sets up. The wind is also going to be factor, limiting ratios. Expand Potentially blizzard conditions someplace. Maybe here. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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