Metasequoia Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: My first call This you having fun with us or do you really think we get shafted again like 2015? Painful memories... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I continue to be impressed with how the forward movement of the storm is slowing down on all of the models. We've gone from Saturday evening in the Gulf of Maine to Saturday evening just e of Cape Cod. This is a big improvement and changes this from potentially a 12 hour event to potentially a 17 or 18 hour event. The GFS is trending towards the ECMWF. Do not be surprised if the 18Z run changes back a hair. The most important thing now is that the Euro is consistent with itself. If we can hold the Euro, improve on the CMC and the UKMET the GFS will eventually come around fully. WX/PT Assuming the new Euro doesn’t start backing down then yea, we are probably starting to see a full GFS cave to its solution….I’d like to see what the CMC and Ukie do next like you said….don’t really care about the ICON, it ends up bowing to consensus just before an event anyway….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: This you having fun with us or do you really think we get shafted again like 2015? Painful memories... I think it's coming but wouldn't be surprised if it slipped east a bit at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GGEM looks west of its prev. 0z run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Okay, can someone just let me know if it's too soon yet to put my wetsuit and snorkel on and go lay out to on the grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: My first call Good morning Rjay. It just might be more enjoyable to start tracking you. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, yankeex777 said: GGEM looks west of its prev. 0z run... The RGEM looked very good so GGEM should be much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Cmc crushes eastern LI and eastern SNE. Further west than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Sign me up for the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc crushes eastern LI and eastern SNE. Further west than 0z. A tuck 50 miles more west would do. It's nice to see models trending more favorably for once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc crushes eastern LI and eastern SNE. Further west than 0z. That would look like a number of storms we've had over the years with my area getting 4-8 while the eastern areas get a full blown storm. I think this is what is more likely than a crush job here, though over your way a little east you might do better than that, IF it doesn't slip further east altogether, which is also on the table. At least there is something to talk about, and even the radio news is expecting some sort of snow this weekend at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc crushes eastern LI and eastern SNE. Further west than 0z. It's WAY west than 0z, no? - everybody got so fixated on the bad gfs runs that they didn't realize this went from amazing for nyc area to terrible, now it's only another 75-100 mile shift from an epic solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Slowly but surely everything trending toward euro. Trying to regain the throne?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Better interaction of the two waves and the system as a whole slowing down at our latitude. GFS/GGEM are getting there. But overall very encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think it's coming but wouldn't be surprised if it slipped east a bit at the end. I agree, I think this has very sharp cutoff/subsidence on the NW side written all over it. Still would not be surprised to ultimately see this an eastern LI/eastern NE bomb. Something like what the CMC just showed would not surprise me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I agree, I think this has very sharp cutoff/subsidence on the NW side written all over it. Still would not be surprised to ultimately see this an eastern LI/eastern NE bomb. Something like what the CMC just showed would not surprise me that's often the case with these gulf storms- Boxing day 2010, Jan 2018 had very sharp NW cutoffs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc crushes eastern LI and eastern SNE. Further west than 0z. 952 mb near the benchmark. How doesn't this bury the metro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think it's coming but wouldn't be surprised if it slipped east a bit at the end. Yeah, unfortunately we are relying on phase and phase alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Maybe for once this could work to our benefit and result in a more tucked in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GEFS look way west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Heavy lean west on the 12z gefs today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree, I think this has very sharp cutoff/subsidence on the NW side written all over it. Still would not be surprised to ultimately see this an eastern LI/eastern NE bomb. Something like what the CMC just showed would not surprise me I see that as well. The Euro is probably our best case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 952 mb near the benchmark. How doesn't this bury the metro? Because the benchmark is too far east for NYC. We need it tucked inside to get burried! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Looking at the GFS / CMC the track HAS shifted west from the 00Z runs for sure. That alone is not going to get it done at least for locations west of I95. Those two models are too late of a complete phase / bombing thus they would result in not a big deal event at all west of I95 and a so-so event for immediate metro. Central and eastern L.I. and SE NE would fare MUCH better. Make no mistake for this entire forum to meet or exceed expectations of 12"+ this has to close and capture further SW than indicated by current GFS / CMC. Long ways to go but these two solutions are possible. Main take away here is consensus is increasing for bombing low off or along the MA OR NE coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: Because the benchmark is too far east for NYC. We need it tucked inside to get burried! You also need it tucked inside to get rain over coastal sections. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Rgem at 84 hours was a little quicker with the phase and position of the trough compared to cmc. That is what I was hoping for cmc but not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 When you see the euro tick west at 1:00 pm Come back to this map and hug it for me!!!!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: You also need it tucked inside to get rain over coastal sections. WX/PT Yes.. very thin line.. have to be able to smell the rain.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yeah, unfortunately we are relying on phase and phase alone There's still room for it to come west. The ridge axis out west isn't in a bad place, and there's room for the southern energy to be more consolidated and phase faster. GEFS also just came out and went west, with several members that would send the low over Cape Cod. We'd get buried even into NYC with those. No doubt 12z so far is going in a good direction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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