LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: Except it's a decent bump west and Suffolk Co gets warning criteria snows. Only need a few bumps west to get the majority of our subforum. What's 50-100 miles in 4+ days? That location is fine for all of Long Island and eastern parts of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Man thats not a good thing, we already had Feb 1989 earlier in January, don't need it again. On the positive side, this storm also had a similar 500 pattern out west and that one worked out okay. The ridge was more amplified in this case, that was only one factor but it played a part in the end result difference. The ridge verbatim on the GFS is better than 89, the problems more originate with what is going on with the SRN stream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0224.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2009/us0302.php 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: On the positive side, this storm also had a similar 500 pattern out west and that one worked out okay. The ridge was more amplified in this case, that was only one factor but it played a part in the end result difference. The ridge verbatim on the GFS is better than 89, the problems more originate with what is going on with the SRN stream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0224.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2009/us0302.php In your opinion which was the worse bust.....Feb 1989 or Dec 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: In your opinion which was the worse bust.....Feb 1989 or Dec 1989 February 89...Dec 89 was a Miller B...models always struggled with those pre middle to late 90s...Feb 89 was largely NCEP/WFOs heavily biting on the NGM which had been out just 2 years but was weighted heavily in forecasts despite the LFM and other guidance not really ever biting on big snows back into NYC/DC/PHL. The Dec 89 event basically every model from my memory was going with 4-8 inches on the 12Z cycle that AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: February 89...Dec 89 was a Miller B...models always struggled with those pre middle to late 90s...Feb 89 was largely NCEP/WFOs heavily biting on the NGM which had been out just 2 years but was weighted heavily in forecasts despite the LFM and other guidance not really ever biting on big snows back into NYC/DC/PHL. The Dec 89 event basically every model from my memory was going with 4-8 inches on the 12Z cycle that AM There was another one that I almost forgot....weren't we supposed to get a big snowstorm on Veterans Day too....was that 1987 or 1989? Another blown call....we did get 1-2 inches which was better than getting nothing, which is what happened with the other 2 storms. But areas both to the north and south of us got a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: There was another one that I almost forgot....weren't we supposed to get a big snowstorm on Veterans Day too....was that 1987 or 1989? Another blown call....we did get 1-2 inches which was better than getting nothing, which is what happened with the other 2 storms. But areas both to the north and south of us got a lot more. 11/11/87 BOS/DCA both saw 6 plus...my recollection though was the forecast here was not for much, maybe 2-3 and we got 1. The BOS forecast was good. DCA they had a chance of flurries and they got 12-20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The energy out in the sw is less amped and a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: The energy out in the sw is less amped and a bit east. Euro looks really good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 ECMWF is fully phasing 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Euro looks really good. Through 96 compared to last run deeper trough but storm is just a hair ne of where it was, just noise really. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Indications this'll be west of 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF is fully phasing Bout to be a bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If this happens, it could be historic. WX/PT 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro is insane for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: If this happens, it could be historic. WX/PT Wow. Dream run right there!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Omg 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Barley moves for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Fantastic run!! 12+ for most everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Crawling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Damn, thought we'd have to wait til Wednesday night to be NAM'd, but Euro says why wait. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Blizzard warning material on that run!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Good god. Too bad it's not Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I need a cigarette after that run... lol 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 This one's for the weenies 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Nibor said: I need a cigarette after that run... lol Same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The fact that the Euro didn't even gesture towards a more eastern solution is comforting. Now we need to get the GFS and CMC back on board tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It is correct that this becomes a longer event. It's still moving fast but the Euro gave it another 4-6 hours on tonight's run. There's a little bit of confluence out ahead of it which is helping. The kicker low approaching the western upper Great Lakes is helping this to not come too close to us. Tomorrow and Wednesday we'll begin to find out where we're going with this event. WX/PT 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 The ole capture and crawl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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