ForestHillWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember. Hahah, now I feel old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Miller A's always have a narrow jackpot zone with a major screw zone just to the NW of wherever that sets up. See 1/26-1/27 2015 and to a certain extent 12/26/10 as examples. It doesn't get any sharper than this. This is the Boxing Day storm and if I'm not mistaken it was a Miller B not a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Miller A's always have a narrow jackpot zone with a major screw zone just to the NW of wherever that sets up. See 1/26-1/27 2015 and to a certain extent 12/26/10 as examples. It doesn't get any sharper than this. That 2015 storm prob had the sharpest cutoff I’ve ever seen. 1” of fluff here while 15 miles to my south had 18” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: This is the Boxing Day storm and if I'm not mistaken it was a Miller B not a Miller A Boxing Day was a pure Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Hahah, now I feel old. Still the greatest bust of the modern era and solidified my belief that for the most part, March storms rarely work out for the area, with a few exceptions. But this isn't March, just a lousy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, snywx said: That 2015 storm prob had the sharpest cutoff I’ve ever seen. 1” of fluff here while 15 miles to my south had 18” I think you mean 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, weatherpruf said: Still the greatest bust of the modern era and solidified my belief that for the most part, March storms rarely work out for the area, with a few exceptions. But this isn't March, just a lousy pattern. Ummm March 2018 was a month of epic storms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I think you mean 2016. Yeah.. they all the same lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Need that west trend to stop now. Some members going into CT showing up. Well if that happens it happens, nothing we could do about it anyway. However, that's the best look we've had on the EPS thus far with a very sizable cluster closer to the mean. Which is good. This thing has a ways to go. We're still not even in range for the 18z euro or nam yet lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 30 inches in Boxing Day. I'll take that again please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Ummm March 2018 was a month of epic storms Not for all of us, and I did say there are some exceptions. March 2018 was quite the anomaly; even so, only one storm produced anything of significance in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Not for all of us, and I did say there are some exceptions. March 2018 was quite the anomaly; even so, only one storm produced anything of significance in my area. wow we had close to 30 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models right now look like Juno No more like Boxing Day 2010 Go with that analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 42 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’d gladly sign for that. Epic amounts were a bit east of MBY but it was probably 18-20” here. Again it’s way too early to nail down an outcome. We had rain at the beginning here with that one, that wont be the case this time around. If that storm was all snow here it would have easily been 20 inches plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Strong storm signal. Reminds me of 1/26-1/27 2015. No one remembers that storm....the only storm from Jan 2015 that most remember is the 10 incher that was supposed to be a 30 incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Nibor said: A faster deepening of the low than what is shown on the euro would benefit our area immensely. But could also be detrimental for the coast with the phase causing a closer track to the coast. That's what makes this such a thread the needle event, so much can go wrong in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: That’s really nice. Lots of big time outcomes for 95% of us. Shows the range of outcomes well. None go west of LI which is encouraging at this stage. You actually want some to go west of LI to ensure this wont go too far east of us. I want a track between Block Island and Nantucket. How many of the ensembles go west of 40/70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember. Forecasted 2-3 feet here 5 inches 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea you can see the southwest bend in the precip tilt a lot further south this run, I'd imagine that would bend even further SW if the low bombed out faster. We want it to trend a little further west to get in on the good stuff (by good I mean 20 inches plus). Here in SW Nassau I would like it to go 100 miles further west- a track between Block Island and Nantucket would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forecasted 2-3 feet here 5 inches backside snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Warm seclusion. It's common in mature oceanic storms when the bent-back warm front wraps around the center. Thats how they develop an eye-- it's what happened in Feb 1978 Storm surge too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forecasted 2-3 feet here 5 inches Ugh. Every time that storm is mentioned I shudder. All the models were locked and loaded 48 hours before the event and then one by one they pull the rug out from me. The mother of all busts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 48 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I was in the one-inch snowhole for that storm (Allentown). WSW for 10-16 turned into a coating of pixie dust. A truly awful memory, and reading the reports in this forum of what was happening 50 miles to my east made everything ten times worse. Ugh, don't remind me of that one. Need this west trend to continue, let it rain to the east!! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: So that must be why it gave 11 inches to NYC even with a low that far east. It's probably not going to be that far east either, so expect more trending west. 12 inches plus here as is here in SW Nassau, but I want the 20 inch plus totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 not far off from 2015. the pacific is better this year though 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Just commentating after seeing Euro. Unless there's a massive regime change next day or so it seems likely we phase. In almost every instance when this occurred the storm ticked west and/or got going faster which caused a west tick (see our last big inland cutter). Having that extra wiggle room provided by the GFS/Euro is a very good thing right now. A bullseye this far out usually means we mix/changeover as storm eventually shifts too far west. This is especially true given we don't have a true -NAO block in place. This is why our largest storms were first forecast to miss our area to the south.and east. See Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2, Boxing Day 2010 and Jan 2016 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro would have a track closer to the GFS and CMC if it didn’t hang the energy back to the SW longer. The sooner this goes negative tilt, the more of a chance it will tuck or hug. We really need to thread the needle for a perfect track with a +AO and +NAO. The balance has to be just the right between the +PNA ridge and the ridge east of New England for it to substitute for a Greenland block. Plenty of days ahead to refine the track and intensity. Aren't all events thread the needle events? They could all trend slightly one way or another and cause big changes to the outcome. I've seen mixing or changing or out sea tracks with -AO and -NAO too. I'd rather have a +PNA than a -NAO or -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 as depicted right now what are the time frames is this an overnight storm or during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs This is the perfect track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: as depicted right now what are the time frames is this an overnight storm or during the day? Both, after midnight Friday night and all day Saturday and first half of Saturday night, a true 24 hour storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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