NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, snywx said: where is the rain/snow line ? looks similar to GFS almost benchmark track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, snywx said: Thats only 12z Saturday so likely still snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: where is the rain/snow line ? looks similar to GFS almost benchmark track.. Look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats only 12z Saturday so likely still snowing. Classic interior hit. The minute I hear E LI is all snow I break out the sun screen cause it’s gonna be a beautiful day with broken cirrus up here 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 CMC at 132 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is the CMC snow equiv map. The problem is it runs through Feb 3 but I believe most if not all of this is snow for Friday through Sunday. If I could I would freeze that right where it is. Most likely this will waver a lot between now and Friday but I'm okay if it doesn't I love when SE New England gets rain, especially living in the HV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: This is the CMC snow equiv map. The problem is it runs through Feb 3 but I believe most if not all of this is snow for Friday through Sunday. If I could I would freeze that right where it is. Most likely this will waver a lot between now and Friday but I'm okay if it doesn't I love when SE New England gets rain, especially living in the HV. lol 2 ft for the NYC metro area and north - a boy can dream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Welp, that would be a mixing nightmare for me down in Ocean Co. Hoping to see us all stay snow. Boxing Day was so special for that (though I lived in North Brunswick at the time, it performed beautifully where I live now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro is coming in more amped through 48 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is coming in more amped through 48 hours It's going to be strong solution and likely west of 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's going to be strong solution and likely west of 0z. Yea sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Meh. Not impressive for the city compared to GFS and CMC. Beautiful setup but the surface low is still too far east. That being said, it was a big improvement from 0z and we're just a tick away from an amazing outcome. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The Euro is pretty much a lock for 6" or more probably a foot or more especially coastal locations wind driven snow zero visibilities the whole spectrum of blizzard conditions. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro gets down sub 960 Wow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Meh. Not impressive for the city compared to GFS and CMC. Beautiful setup but the surface low is still too far east. That being said, it was a big improvement from 0z and we're just a tick away from an amazing outcome. still 5 days to go - thats a long long time in the modeling world.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro is east of GFS/CMC but west of it's last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 CMC/GFSish track with the Euro's intensity would be amazing. Nice trend on the Euro though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Euro is east of GFS/CMC but west of it's last run. which would eliminate any chance of mixing.......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro is east of GFS/CMC but west of it's last run. Yep this fun still spits out alot of snow despite the low further offshore than the cmc. Imagine if the euro shifts west. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Meh. Not impressive for the city compared to GFS and CMC. Beautiful setup but the surface low is still too far east. That being said, it was a big improvement from 0z and we're just a tick away from an amazing outcome. I wouldn't worry about verbatim at this point. We have 3 major models now showing a strong low offshore throwing back at least 6 inches of snow to the metro area. Can't ask for a better 12z suite at this point. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Tough forecast for Boston right now, Euro/Ukie camp they get clobbered, CMC/GFS camp they get change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: still 5 days to go - thats a long long time in the modeling world.... Absolutely, and the GFS has decisively outperformed the Euro this winter. My guess is the Euro is playing its catchup game where it gradually caves to the GFS as with the inland runner 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: still 5 days to go - thats a long long time in the modeling world.... The key is we are moving towards an "amazing outcome". The trend is your friend here. You would not want the European to jump too far west here as we already have a result of that with the CMC. I think the Euro places this track in an ideal spot for this time-frame. An historic storm certainly possible at this point. Just need a hair further west track, and not too much further west. WX/PT 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Remember it’s only Monday. A lot can change, thou I do think it will be stormy with snow or a changeover at the coast. Don’t forget the March storm a few years back where it had it east, then a blizzard then mainly rain and Albany get the blizzard. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Mitchel Volk said: Remember it’s only Monday. A lot can change, thou I do think it will be stormy with snow or a changeover at the coast. Don’t forget the March storm a few years back where it had it east, then a blizzard then mainly rain and Albany get the blizzard. Exactly. And there is little if any blocking here so beware. That's one of my concerns. When models start to tick left with the track we do not want to see them tick further left than what the Euro is doing (last 3 runs). WX/PT 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Exactly. And there is little if any blocking here so beware. That's one of my concerns. When models start to tick left with the track we do not want to see them tick further left than what the Euro is doing (last 3 runs). WX/PT Agree, the Euro is probably exactly where you want it 5 days out which is the best snows a little east of NYC knowing storms are more likely to trend west than east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Tough forecast for Boston right now, Euro/Ukie camp they get clobbered, CMC/GFS camp they get change to rain. For Boston or anywhere I’d just say “chance at a significant coastal storm for Saturday” and not mention precip types. Still a few days before worrying about rain or snow. Euro is a very nice solution but gets going a hair too late for the huge totals in our area. It might be holding back a little too much energy in the SW which might mean it gets going faster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: For Boston or anywhere I’d just say “chance at a significant coastal storm for Saturday” and not mention precip types. Still a few days before worrying about rain or snow. Euro is a very nice solution but gets going a hair too late for the huge totals in our area. It might be holding back a little too much energy in the SW which might mean it gets going faster. It's more about it's track then it getting going too late, but as others have said, it's in a good spot, especially since the Euro tends to trend west late in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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