weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Just read Mt. Holly's take. Thought it was a really good breakdown of the situation as it stands. Worth a read, especially the first paragraph. In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally. Definitely not out of the woods...sounds like they think we probably are gonna dodge this, but hey ya never know..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS The WAR will substitute the poor Atlantic blocking. PNA ridge out west is my biggest concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Definitely not out of the woods...sounds like they think we probably are gonna dodge this, but hey ya never know..... I took it that current guidance favors NE, but historical model bias (and current trends) suggests we're still very much in the game, and even compared to other major events. Not bad at this point IMO. The set up is clearly extremely delicate however, and it's really tough to start feeling excitement knowing how easily / quickly this could crumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: I took it that current guidance favors NE, but historical model bias suggests we're still very much in the game, and even compared to other major events. Not bad at this point IMO. Generally those storms to the east fringe my area, but sometimes if big enough can still deliver 4-8, which is a win in this kind of winter. This set up from what I am seeing with my limited understanding does not generally favor the upper central area of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I think OTS is the bigger threat than rain still but this doesn't feel like either of the last two threats. In other words it feels there are still many options on the table and I am not sure whether to be more scared of an east or west trend at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 47 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Absolutely, I would start getting comfortable after the 12z runs Thursday. For now it’s sit back and see what evolves till then. The models haven't been that bad this winter, I think by 12Z Wed we can have some confidence but sure nothing is comfortable until the storm arrives lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think OTS is the bigger threat than rain still but this doesn't feel like either of the last two threats. In other words it feels there are still many options on the table and I am not sure whether to be more scared of an east or west trend at this point. I wouldn’t be “scared” of anything yet, way too early. But any outcome is really possible here. I guess the hugger/inland scenario is a little less likely because of the trough orientation but that can’t be ruled out either if the storm bombs like crazy early on. We really have a couple more days before we can start to hone in on the outcome. But it’s high risk/high reward for sure. If it comes together right this will be a big time event with the amount of energy to work with along with the warm Atlantic relatively unscathed due to the lack of nor’easters so far this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Gfs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Big storm with some wiggle room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The timing of the phase and the axis tilt is really key. Had the latter happened a tad earlier on the GFS we go from MECS to HECS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Big storm with some wiggle room. yes as long as it doesn't come any further west - right now its a benchmark track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Gravity Wave said: The timing of the phase and the axis tilt is really key. Had the latter happened a tad earlier on the GFS we go from MECS to HECS. Might be headed that way. It was close 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Gravity Wave said: The timing of the phase and the axis tilt is really key. Had the latter happened a tad earlier on the GFS we go from MECS to HECS. Yep, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent number of ensemble members to show something like that. Lots of sub-970 lows popping up on the ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This could trend towards a Boxing Day type event, there is nothing really keeping it from going even further west. That could become a problem. It could trend too far west. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Let's see if the cmc stays the course.... maybe better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Close to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Let's see if the cmc stays the course.... maybe better So far it's been leading the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I wouldn’t be “scared” of anything yet, way too early. But any outcome is really possible here. I guess the hugger/inland scenario is a little less likely because of the trough orientation but that can’t be ruled out either if the storm bombs like crazy early on. We really have a couple more days before we can start to hone in on the outcome. But it’s high risk/high reward for sure. If it comes together right this will be a big time event with the amount of energy to work with along with the warm Atlantic relatively unscathed due to the lack of nor’easters so far this winter. I mean being scared of a weather outcome I get is a bit extreme but I more meant I don't know which way I prefer this trending. It is still kind of early but now we are inside 5 days where things start to get a bit more serious and the models have been promising enough since 0Z last night that I feel if it ends up with a big shift there will be lot of dissapointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Close to the coast Wow. Too close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Close to the coast Beautiful.. too bad it’s 120hrs out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Close to the coast Yes I'd like to west trend to halt now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 OPC 96hr prog Powerhouse at 980mb Miller A Warm SST hang in and hold on https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Boston gets heavy rain on CMC. Honestly almost looks like a further east version of the storm two weekends ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I'd love to see it develop 12-18 hours earlier, lest the best conveyor belt dynamics be relegated to NNE. That system is in its infancy there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Juliancolton said: I'd love to see it develop 12-18 hours earlier, lest the best conveyor belt dynamics be relegated to NNE. That system is in its infancy there. If it develops 12-18 hours earlier I think NYC Metro might be bringing out umbrellas but yes I could see why you'd want that up there lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I agree with what one of the Mets posted in the MA forum last night. This evolution is similar to 2/4/95 but as of now furthest east. The overall setup though most resembles that of any storm I can remember and there is some minor similarity to December 2010 but this is going to be a much faster mover than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Honestly being in the jackpot zone with rain just to the SE is not an ideal spot this far out. I would favor the interior at this point but who knows with this winter it could either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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