tim123 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:37 PM, MJO812 said: Gfs had this on the 0z Satuday run and then had a monster on the 18z run Saturday. Expand Before this last week. It had a 950 in South Central pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Lol @ the out to sea weenies yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:48 PM, Allsnow said: Lol @ the out to sea weenies yesterday Expand I wouldn't say anything yet. It still can go out to sea if it misses the phase . I don't know what's stopping this from coming more west. The position of the ridge out west is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: This threat has been dead. Who cares what one op run of a model shows Expand On 1/24/2022 at 1:22 PM, SnoSki14 said: There is wiggle room which is good. If the phase is legit which it might be then things should tick west. However the trough is further east than the inland cutter debacle, the placement of the high is much better. But a lot can go wrong this far out too. Expand It hasn't even been 24 hours dude. 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:55 PM, NEG NAO said: why would you think that last night's solution is what will verify ? This can easily not be a snowstorm here still 5 days to go to determine that....... Expand Go back to all the posts from yesterday and then get back to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:53 PM, Rjay said: It hasn't even been 24 hours dude. Expand A lot has changed in a very short time. And this way I can't lose lol 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:53 PM, Rjay said: It hasn't even been 24 hours dude. Expand What are you thinking? The threat is OTS not inland runner with this storm IMO. The flow is still very fast and a lot will depend on the +PNA ridge strength and position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:55 PM, NEG NAO said: why would you think that last night's solution is what will verify ? This can easily not be a snowstorm here still 5 days to go to determine that....... Expand Because it shows what they want it to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 11:55 PM, NEG NAO said: because of what majority of guidance is currently advertising - so you must think we are getting a snowstorm next weekend......... Expand It's still early but this is why we continue to track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:56 PM, snowman19 said: What are you thinking? The threat is OTS not inland runner with this storm IMO. The flow is still very fast and a lot will depend on the +PNA ridge strength and position Expand Yes but what's stopping a west trend ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:50 PM, eduggs said: The Euro is not close. The UK is far off, but not hopeless. GFS is a clear miss but close enough to be interesting. The CMC is nearly perfect but no wiggle room east. I feel like we're always in this position kind of hoping for a miracle. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:58 PM, Allsnow said: Expand I got weenied by alot of these people for saying it's too early to say anything . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:58 PM, MJO812 said: I got weenied by alot of these people for saying it's too early to say anything . Expand Now they will all jump into the inland solution 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:56 PM, gravitylover said: Because it shows what they want it to Expand They all literally went with the models and said ots was a big concern yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:59 PM, Allsnow said: Now they will all jump into the inland solution Expand Anything is possible this far out. Both options are on the table. All we can do it continue to track it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 @bluewave has been all over the trends so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Trending west for now, but this is still 5 days away. Very low confidence this far out for any one particular solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:59 PM, Allsnow said: Now they will all jump into the inland solution Expand OTS is much more likely. If the phasing is off this will end up much further east. And that could still play out. There's a lot of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:59 PM, Allsnow said: Now they will all jump into the inland solution Expand I think that’s the least likely possibility. If anything the threat is OTS not inland runner/cutter IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:10 PM, EasternLI said: 06z EPS Expand That’s about as beautiful of a mean you will see for a KU event for NYC to BOS. This ones very legit. The question is, is this a Nantucket mauler and we get fringed or is this a rain in the tucket and we get buried. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 2:15 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s about as beautiful of a mean you will see for a KU event for NYC to BOS. This ones very legit. The question is, is this a Nantucket mauler and we get fringed or is this a rain in the tucket and we get buried. Expand Yeah, this has solid big time potential for somewhere. It's going to be a long week good times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 2:07 PM, SnoSki14 said: OTS is much more likely. If the phasing is off this will end up much further east. And that could still play out. There's a lot of time left Expand I agree with that given the pattern... However, it must be acknowledged that if this continues to amp an inland coastal is not outside the realm of possibilities. Just a possibility, yet one which must be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:56 PM, snowman19 said: What are you thinking? The threat is OTS not inland runner with this storm IMO. The flow is still very fast and a lot will depend on the +PNA ridge strength and position Expand Wide right and inland are both still on the table even with the fast flow. If this amplifies enough there's nothing to keep it from coming west. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 2:12 PM, snowman19 said: I think that’s the least likely possibility. If anything the threat is OTS not inland runner/cutter IMO Expand Inland is real unlikely but something running right up the coast like an 87 or January 2000 is and due to the relatively stale air mass it appears will be in place you can’t really afford that sort of track here. You’d flip over pretty fast at the coast if it did 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 1:58 PM, Allsnow said: Expand We still kinda need a miracle. The setup is so delicate. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 2:48 PM, Rjay said: We still kinda need a miracle. The setup is so delicate. Expand Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just read Mt. Holly's take. Thought it was a really good breakdown of the situation as it stands. Worth a read, especially the first paragraph. In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 3:00 PM, snowman19 said: Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS Expand I think this form has zero f's to give about a DC getting in on this. Just put us in play with ENE like the big ones from the last decade and we can fight it out model run to model run. One will be standing at the end. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 2:00 PM, MJO812 said: Anything is possible this far out. Both options are on the table. All we can do it continue to track it. Expand Absolutely, I would start getting comfortable after the 12z runs Thursday. For now it’s sit back and see what evolves till then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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