Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are a lot of folks who would feel porked with 12" in a sea of 2' plus....you are full of shit if you think otherwise.

Wrong.  See my post above.  It's just snow.  No need to be jealous.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if the Euro comes in more  stable … cyclone within comparative marginal consistency for positions and pressure depths and so forth. 

This is the stage of the game where the Euro’s 4-D variable normalization system may come in handy because that’s what it’s designed to do it’s designed to stop irrelevant perturbation from causing increased error out in time. These other guidance seem to be suffering from giga motions

wow, good call for a change heh

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wrong.  See my post above.  It's just snow.  No need to be jealous.

Not wrong....I understand that you couldn't care less, and I believe you, but I think that you are the minority on this site.

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

2/13 fit everybody.  That was a fabulous storm. Hopefully this ends up distributing the snow similar to how that did. 

I'd take that again in a second. Over 30 inches in a lot of the valley was awesome...plowing 34 inches on my route was insane!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow, good call for a change heh

Finally, about time. Sheesh. (Sarcasm)

You’re on fiyah. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are a lot of folks who would feel porked with 12" in a sea of 2' plus....you are full of shit if you think otherwise.

We kid.      

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I don't remember when Luna was, but the Bronys had a party for that one.  That I remember.

 

Like people meme'd Elsa this past Summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

We kid.      

The reality is that if I get a foot here, I have 22.5" headed into February....that still blows. No one on here except Bob enjoys large snow fall deficits for several years running. I understand I am an easy target because I am so vocal about it, but many others here feel the same way, dude.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reality is that if I get a foot here, I have 22.5" headed into February....that still blows. No one on here except Bob enjoys large snow fall deficits for several years running. I understand I am an easy target because I am so vocal about it, but many others here feel the same way, dude.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not wrong....I understand that you couldn't care less, and I believe you, but I think that you are the minority on this site.

As I said, I’d prefer that over a Jan15 outside looking in result. Mar17 was like that here. We got a foot then snizzled our way to 14” as the deform goodies were NW of here but at least all day it felt like a storm was occurring. 
 

[SouthCoastMA]

I remember getting 10" of sand in Feb 2006 when we were forecasted for 18"+  and feeling like it was a huge disappointment. I definitely like to be a part of the big totals, otherwise its just ok. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least we have a worthwhile system to engage in dialogue over for once. Took this season forever to get going.

[JC-CT]

the sexual undertones this morning might be wilder than the storm itself

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember getting 10" of sand in Feb 2006 when we were forecasted for 18"+  and feeling like it was a huge disappointment. I definitely like to be a part of the big totals, otherwise its just ok. 

I remember waiting for that huge band out west to get here, and it never came...that was back before I understood deformation zones, etc...I was so jealous of W NE and NYC. Nice event, though....I had 16". 

I was in my 30s before I understood what so many high school kids on this site know now...mind blowing what the internet has done.

[ORH_wxman]

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

[Zeus]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember getting 10" of sand in Feb 2006 when we were forecasted for 18"+  and feeling like it was a huge disappointment. I definitely like to be a part of the big totals, otherwise its just ok. 

I would submit that, especially in that kind of scenario, there's something to be said for totals vs. expectations AND for the dendrites themselves. Sand/diamond dust is rarely satisfying unless you get absolutely buried. 2 to 4 inches of parachutes dancing down through naught a hint of a breeze and I'm seated at the window looking like Paul Reubens enjoying a matinee.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

I'm still surprised that the 6z GEFS look so ugly. Figured we'd see at least a bit of improvement overnight.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

Don't worry, apparently no one except me minds...its just snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

Maybe the euro/eps takes the belt back. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe the euro/eps takes the belt back. 

We all need this one 

[Baroclinic Zone]

My gut is telling me the OP Euro is too amplified and the OP GFS is not amplified enough.  EPS and GEFS are in between and where my leaning on track is right now.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

My gut is telling me the OP Euro is too amplified and the OP GFS is not amplified enough.  EPS and GEFS are in between and where my leaning on track is right now.  

 

I agree.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe the euro/eps takes the belt back. 

Yeah we'll see...the classic 70/30 compromise used to work very well...we will see if that happens this time.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe the euro/eps takes the belt back. 

Well 0z was definitely on the western envelope of its ensembles, so that would make sense

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

I would give up the 2ft totals now if I could lock in 10.5 here at this point in time.

Still very concerned about a complete miss/scraper.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I'm still surprised that the 6z GEFS look so ugly. Figured we'd see at least a bit of improvement overnight.

There are a lot of slower, left leaning members in the 06 GEFS.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm still surprised that the 6z GEFS look so ugly. Figured we'd see at least a bit of improvement overnight.

Yeah I was expecting it better too. My guess is the EPS is too amped, but it is closer to reality than the GEFS. Maybe the old 70/30 rule will restore sanity to the wx forecasting world. But knowing this year...prob not.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't worry, apparently no one except me minds...its just snow.

I don’t think most of us are implying that it’s nbd. Clearly we are here because we love it and we chase the big one because how special it is. Trust…if this goes Jan15 out here you bet your fanny I’m gonna go DIT drunken rage on something or someone around the house. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree.

I know you don't take my comments personal.  We do joke around a lot and share a passion for tracking, you moreso that I, which shows.  I'm still waiting another full day to take a big hit seriously.

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reality is that if I get a foot here, I have 22.5" headed into February....that still blows. No one on here except Bob enjoys large snow fall deficits for several years running. I understand I am an easy target because I am so vocal about it, but many others here feel the same way, dude.

Yeah... we (most of us) have a long way to go to get out of obscene ratter territory.