Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

GEFS looks slightly west of 18Z

I think the general theme is, jackpots be damned, most of SNE and CNE is happy with this storm.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think the general theme is, jackpots be damned, most of SNE and CNE is happy with this storm.

There is a nice cluster now on the 00z GEFS that is up toward ACK that was not on the 18z run

 

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There is a nice cluster now on the 00z GEFS that is up toward ACK that was not on the 18z run

 

 

That's a shotgun spread still though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think the general theme is, jackpots be damned, most of SNE and CNE is happy with this storm.

Yea. The only caveat is this kind of potential doesn’t come around often, especially for this area…so you kinda want to capitalize on it. We’re not the Chiefs down here where we can shrug off a SB loss and go after the title next season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The worst model for me is the CMC with a foot....everything else is more money.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The worse model for me is the CMC with a foot....everything else is more money.

yay 

[weathafella]

Uncle with 955 passing east of the cape.  Verbatim noon to midnight party Saturday.  Big amount of qpf.  I don’t  see any taint but I don’t have h925 on sv

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The worst model for me is the CMC with a foot....everything else is more money.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yay 

About my reaction to every other event this season, while either NNE or south of pike tag teamed me.

Deal-

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle with 955 passing east of the cape.  Verbatim noon to midnight party Saturday.  Big amount of qpf.  I don’t  see any taint but I don’t have h925 on sv

Pivotal has UK h925 temps.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Uncle with 955 passing east of the cape.  Verbatim noon to midnight party Saturday.  Big amount of qpf.  I don’t  see any taint but I don’t have h925 on sv

Insanity.  We have big dog potential for many with this storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pardon me for having negative sympathy for those potentially missing out on this after the past 4 years.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle with 955 passing east of the cape.  Verbatim noon to midnight party Saturday.  Big amount of qpf.  I don’t  see any taint but I don’t have h925 on sv

If only it was a reliable model.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If only it was a reliable model.

Its possible.....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yay 

Isn’t it comforting?

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About my reaction to every other event this season, while either NNE or south of pike tag teamed me.

Deal-

I have around 11” so far. It hasn’t been great but a 30” would suffice. Help a brother out…

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle with 955 passing east of the cape.  Verbatim noon to midnight party Saturday.  Big amount of qpf.  I don’t  see any taint but I don’t have h925 on sv

I can't see between 18Z and 0Z, but the total qpf for that 6 hrs is 1.25", and just 6" of snow, so somewhere in that time period there is some taint for our hoods.

[IowaStorm05]

25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Oh shit, here comes "still a couple inches for the cape." Kiss of death. Maybe by 06z?

I dunno if it’s just me but it seems like models predict Southeast Coast snowstorms more often than they actually materialize.

and climatologically, the snowstorm is more likely to pound inland southern New England than the coast. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Isn’t it comforting?

 

I have around 11” so far. It hasn’t been great but a 30” would suffice. Help a brother out…

I have 10" and average like 20" more than you

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If only it was a reliable model.

It’s solution is pretty close to the EPS mean so it’s not like it’s an outlier. Definitely well within the realm is solutions. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its possible.....

Sure, I agree. Overall trend seems east despite some here calling this "windshield wipers" or whatever. It may jump back, but overall 00z ops signaled a more OTS solution. Standing by for next cycle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It’s solution is pretty close to the EPS mean so it’s not like it’s an outlier. Definitely well within the realm is solutions. 

I was about to post, I won't be at all surprised if the euro looks like it.

The earlier GEM runs were BS, but that UK is doable.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I dunno if it’s just me but it seems like models predict Southeast Coast snowstorms more often than they actually materialize.

and climatologically, the snowstorm is more likely to pound inland southern New England than the coast. 

You aren't wrong. The models give SE Mass like 1,000 inches of snow a year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

You aren't wrong. The models give SE Mass like 1,000 inches of snow a year.

Well it stands to reason that the more or less snow a given spot averages, the higher or lower the percentage of modeled snowfall verifies.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s solution is pretty close to the EPS mean so it’s not like it’s an outlier. Definitely well within the realm is solutions. 

Don't tell me the UKMET people got to you too? They already convinced the US Army and USAF to use the UKMET products for their weather feeds. Insidious. How much are they paying you?

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

2001 was probably better outcome for my current location.

Two feet   northern Massachusetts

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Two feet   northern Massachusetts

I think I had more like 30" here in Methuen....I lived on Wilmington at the time, and had like 21".

[Henry's Weather]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is a nice cluster now on the 00z GEFS that is up toward ACK that was not on the 18z run

 

 

That's def a statistically significant clustering, nice to see

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Don't tell me the UKMET people got to you too? They already convinced the US Army and USAF to use the UKMET products for their weather feeds. Insidious. How much are they paying you?

They reprogrammed me. Now I’m talking to copying machines like Albert Pujols in that old sportcenter commercial. 

[codfishsnowman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I had more like 30" here in Methuen....I lived on Wilmington at the time, and had like 21".

Yes and a few places up to 3 feet in southern NH

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Yes and a few places up to 3 feet in southern NH

Legit like 12 mi north of me...I think it was around Raymond, NH, ironically enough lol