Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down. 

This reminds me of 3-5-2001 and 1-27-15 both.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Right but when they miss they often  produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual 

Canadian looks East compared to 12z

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This reminds me of 3-5-2001 and 1-27-15 both.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Of course it does. Like at best this looks like a Boston special. 

Maybe in the moment but I wouldn't make that call yet.  A track over Chatham is still very much on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty big jump east, good for ESNE though. Phineass just got nervous.

How does it feel?

Setting goal posts....I would give it another 24 hours, but tucky tucky may just be outta lucky lucky

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This reminds me of 3-5-2001 and 1-27-15 both.

2001 was probably better outcome for my current location.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Right but when they miss they often  produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual 

I would be shocked if our area doesn't see a warning event.

I don't agree with you.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Setting goal posts....I would give it another 24 hours, but tucky tucky may just be outta lucky lucky

We knew it would be. Mostly northern stream dominate systems favor the east. The west needs more southern juice but the subtle trends have been to drag it and not curl it inwards early enough. 

[dryslot]

0z Ukie is a nukie

 

[PhineasC]

GFS and CMC both ran and few posts. Tells the tale. Hopefully tomorrow improves.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We knew it would be. Mostly northern stream dominate systems favor the east. The west needs more southern juice but the subtle trends have been to drag it and not curl it inwards early enough. 

The key is to close it off just a hair sooner....I think that would place a deform waaaay west...even more than people would think. This has more S juice than JUNO did IMO.

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Canadian looks East compared to 12z

Yeah, like about 300 miles east.

[George001]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key is to close it off just a hair sooner....I think that would place a deform waaaay west...even more than people would think. This has more S juice than JUNO did IMO.

yeah there is a lot of southern energy. The more east solutions seem to be holding the energy back. Hopefully it trends towards a quicker ejection in future runs and no energy is left behind. 

 

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You're getting drunk.........lol

Yep, 00z sucked. 

[dryslot]

0z GEFS was west of the 18z run too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Selfishly....these solutions like the GFS that just get cranking around our area could really smoke eastern MA because things tend to go nuts right when the mid levels start to spike the football, so to peak.

See boxing Day back in tri state area...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key is to close it off just a hair sooner....I think that would place a deform waaaay west...even more than people would think. This has more S juice than JUNO did IMO.

It does but the small hints show a potential to be sloppy with the s stream. We’ll see what euro/eps do but it probably shifts east a tick imwo. 

[Rjay]

Uncle

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, 00z sucked. 

I really don't see anything wrong with where things are right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It does but the small hints show a potential to be sloppy with the s stream. We’ll see what euro/eps do but it probably shifts east a tick imwo. 

I think it will tick east at 12th hour...you know my thoughts on that, they usually do....but not necessarily from THIS solution, if you get my drift...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be shocked if our area doesn't see a warning event.

I don't agree with you.

Fair enough , and to be honest I hadn’t looked at it that closely at all, other than just looking at angle of approach and saying Doesn’t seem like much wiggle room . I’m hoping it hits 

surprised I have a 1/2 inch new now , looks nice 

[LSC97wxnut]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z Ukie is a nukie

 

Warm core?

[ORH_wxman]

That was def a jump west on Ukie. 

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Uncle

 

We take

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Fair enough , and to be honest I can be easily swayed Bc I hadn’t looked at it that closely at all, other than just looking at angle of approach and saying Doesn’t seem like much wiggle room 

surprised I have a 1/2 inch new now , looks nice 

Its is kind of thread the needle, you are right....but unless things really go to shit fast, I think we are honing in soon.

[bishbish777]

The CMC is pretty far east, but still hits EMA ~1.0" QPF. Not bad..lots of room for improvement too.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its is kind of thread the needle, you are right....but unless things really go to shit fast, I think we are honing in soon.

The storm is going to be nearby…we know that much. Really the only major variable right now is still how much southern stream gets incorporated. It’s the difference between maybe a scraper and a cape track roughly. That’s where the realistic goalposts are imho. 
 

If we want to get super weenie-ish about 2 standard devs you could prob extend the goalposts a little further to a whiff and maybe something tucked near BOS but that’s getting fairly low probability. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will tick east at 12th hour...you know my thoughts on that, they usually do....but not necessarily from THIS solution, if you get my drift...

I do, I gotchya. I’m gonna rock some madden on ps5 now to kill time before euro. 

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its is kind of thread the needle, you are right....but unless things really go to shit fast, I think we are honing in soon.

Tells the scale of this event: thread the needle is for historic, and we’ve seen exactly that depicted verbatim on reliable models… but lots of buffer for widespread warning+

[40/70 Benchmark]

@NorEastermass128

Congrats on the tip of the 30" weenie..nice improvement on GFS