Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

100% blaming this on the title change…

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

One of these two things are off

Those might be more mutually exclusive charts than at first guess.   The majority of that snow might have fallen/cumulative before that point of time, and then the warm layer comes in briefly but erodes away...etc...  That low is not going W of Boston imho, and that's the ball game on the warm layer west of the location probably on the next frame or the one right after.   In other words, damage done with a later of zr/pl in there.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tip   Scoots and Will .  Three trusted Mets whom we we all care about deeply and do not let us down ever.. said goalpost narrow and whiff or brush highly unlikely. Stay the course and toss the off hour Gfs suite 

Yea. Will and Scoots are worried about huggers moreso while Tip has been disrobed for a few days now telling us it’s coming. 

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Taint vs Whiff, Should be a great next few days.

Yeah, I tossed the CMC, now I'm tossing this GFS.  We'll see by 0z whether I need to toss more.  Maybe we can take a blend of the CMC and GFS...

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yeah, I tossed the CMC, now I'm tossing this GFS.  We'll see by 0z whether I need to toss more.  Maybe we can take a blend of the CMC and GFS...

Not many left after ha ha.

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not many left after ha ha.

Only speaking to individual runs... Plenty of runs left to toss.

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Will and Scoots are worried about huggers moreso while Tip has been disrobed for a few days now telling us it’s coming. 

I'll go with Tip

[Henry's Weather]

I haven't checked anything since last night's EPS run, so upon skimming through the models, we seem to be at a better or similar point to last night, small model shifts aside

[PhineasC]

Hopefully the 18z EPS shifts west noticeably. Will make it easier to toss the GFS. Any word on GEPS?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'll go with Tip

I'm with Tip.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too.

Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies.

It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too.

Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies.

It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now. 

You created this thread so it’s your job to save us. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You created this thread so it’s your job to save us. 

After the 18z GFS came out, You could here a hissing sound like somebody put a pin hole in a balloon and the air was leaking out.

[Ginx snewx]

58 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

we refer to them as happy hour runs, but to answer your question, we treat them like any other run

Lol Hooralph is an original. Boston guy now in NYC. We had some good times at GTGs

[WeatherHappens]

Saturday

Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and 11am, then snow likely after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

so it begins  lol

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GEFS is always going to follow the OP at this time frame. If the OP came west again at 0z, so would the GEFS. So the fact that the GEFS went east isn't really hugely meaningful to me. They are more useful further out in time than this.

 

40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

big jump west now big jump east.  this winter is fascinating.

We windshield wipe. Been here done this.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Hooralph is an original. Boston guy now in NYC. We had some good times at GTGs

JJ Foleys FTW. 
 

My favorite is when they politely told all of us “gentlemen, we think you may be more comfortable in our back room”…they were so diplomatic kicking us out of the main bar. 

[HalloweenGale]

2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Saturday

Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and 11am, then snow likely after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

so it begins  lol

As of now, the mid cape is torch city

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

JJ Foleys FTW. 
 

My favorite is when they politely told all of us “gentlemen, we think you may be more comfortable in our back room”…they were so diplomatic kicking us out of the main bar. 

Lol. Barry Burbank started it!! Other time at PVD when Kev and Eck were bouncing bottle tops off the bartender and we got tossed. Good times 

[Heisy]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too.

Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies.

It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now. 

18z cmc looks like it was going to split off southern stream as well. Energy is much farther west vs 12z at 84 hours 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

We windshield wipe. Been here done this.

As predictable as the rising and setting of the sun. I won’t be all in until Wednesday, and as long as this isn’t a whiff I’ll be ready to go if a high end chase opportunity presents itself. Good times ahead (I hope).

[radarman]

Much as that run sucked, I'd have to take the over on the mesoscale stuff in the hills.  Wintertime PRE... they should rip dendrites a couple hours even if they whiff the main event.

 

[Ginx snewx]

This place is definitely a place that would thrive on daytime soap opera. Reality TV got nothin on SNE division of AMWX

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z cmc looks like it was going to split off southern stream as well. Energy is much farther west vs 12z at 84 hours 

18z cmc?

[HalloweenGale]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

This place is definitely a place that would thrive on daytime soap opera. Reality TV got nothin on SNE division of AMWX

Days of Our Models, As the Storm Bombs, General Forecast Office...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'll go with Tip

Just the…

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z cmc?

Weather.us has it free (I believe)...looks like a hugger, way west

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z cmc?

Heisy = Heineken?

Hiney’s?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Weather.us has it free (I believe)...looks like a hugger, way west

Thats 12z.

[ORH_wxman]

Meteocentre has the 18z gem but it only goes out to 84h on the 18z run.