Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I disrtinctly remember Feb '13 had a couple runs where it looked like we might get 40"+ over a large area because it stalled well into Saturday afternoon. But it ended up slipping a little northeast before it did that....2015 I feel like stalled "on time" but the system was a little bit east of some of the consensus...most glaring the Euro was too far west.

RPM spat out 40" for HFD a couple times. I think once it also had 70" for BOS.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I disrtinctly remember Feb '13 had a couple runs where it looked like we might get 40"+ over a large area because it stalled well into Saturday afternoon. But it ended up slipping a little northeast before it did that....2015 I feel like stalled "on time" but the system was a little bit east of some of the consensus...most glaring the Euro was too far west.

Yeah, it was the Euro that massacred the spirits of nyc weenies

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

RPM spat out 40" for HFD a couple times. I think once it also had 70" for BOS.

to be clear, it wasn't that far off.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah, it was the Euro that massacred the spirits of nyc weenies

I find it interesting it's the other way around with the GFS and Euro at this stage.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

empirical? or anecdotal

yeah anecdotal I guess...lol

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...I feel like the lows that really go bonkers with the bombogenesis do it sooner than progged. That's all empirical from me though.

Yeah it’s very rare for them to capture at our lat. Usually it happens s of LI

[weathafella]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah, it was the Euro that massacred the spirits of nyc weenies

Luke hasn’t forgiven it...

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I disrtinctly remember Feb '13 had a couple runs where it looked like we might get 40"+ over a large area because it stalled well into Saturday afternoon. But it ended up slipping a little northeast before it did that....2015 I feel like stalled "on time" but the system was a little bit east of some of the consensus...most glaring the Euro was too far west.

How does this storm compare to that one synoptically.

I would think the +AO/NAO this time around would cause the storm to tuck in closer to the coast over time. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

to be clear, it wasn't that far off.

True. Glastonbury measured 32.5.

Hamden did actually measure 40.

[klw]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Wait until we get into the NAMs range and we get one of its crazy 36-48" solutions.

It never really fells like Winter for me until a SREF plume average comes in over 40 inches for a storm for me.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I disrtinctly remember Feb '13 had a couple runs where it looked like we might get 40"+ over a large area because it stalled well into Saturday afternoon. But it ended up slipping a little northeast before it did that....2015 I feel like stalled "on time" but the system was a little bit east of some of the consensus...most glaring the Euro was too far west.

Heh.. wasn't that that storm where the run up had a Euro cycle ( mind you, back before confidence in that model started to get rattled...so everyone had to believe it - right), back in 24" clear to western NJ ... prompting blizzard warnings and SOE statements from the mayor of NYC? 

2"    .... priceless

 

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2015 and to a lesser degree, Feb 2013 both captured a bit later and further east than modeled.

Yes they did... But when I look at the evolution at 500, my hedge would be an earlier (slightly) stall / capture. Not that it will make a big difference and not trying to suggest the storm will not be monster over a large area of eastern zones... Just right now I'd hedge a bit earlier.  Probably meaningless for many areas whether it does or doesn't.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

How does this storm compare to that one synoptically.

I would think the +AO/NAO this time around would cause the storm to tuck in closer to the coast over time. 

Feb '13 or Jan 15?

This one to me looks more like Jan 2015 as modeled right now. There's actually a lot of larger scale similarities.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That run is a Juno redux. 

Bigger precip field with this one I would think. 

[JC-CT]

EPS goes right over the benchmark, then hooks north

[weathafella]

EPS largely similar to op.

[CoastalWx]

Eps seems close to the op, probably some wrly members based on MSLP..but not bad at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Yes they did... But when I look at the evolution at 500, my hedge would be an earlier (slightly) stall / capture. Not that it will make a big difference and not trying to suggest the storm will not be monster over a large area of eastern zones... Just right now I'd hedge a bit earlier.  Probably meaningless for many areas whether it does or doesn't.

Maybe. I guess you are going more on meteorology and I am going on past experience. Like you said, I don't think it would make s huge difference here. Jeff it may...

[dryslot]

12z EPS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

EPS largely similar to op.

Figured.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Luke hasn’t forgiven it...

Yeah, Berkshires went from historic totals to pedestrian in about 12 hours.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z EPS

 

[ariof]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I disrtinctly remember Feb '13 had a couple runs where it looked like we might get 40"+ over a large area because it stalled well into Saturday afternoon. 

Feb 06 2013 12Z NAM had 50-70" in BOS-BED-BVY, and showed 30-45 right up until the start of the event. Not even a huge bust; GFS was 15-20 and the final tally in Boston was 25.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

Feb 06 2013 12Z NAM had 50-70" in BOS-BED-BVY, and showed 30-45 right up until the start of the event. Not even a huge bust; GFS was 15-20 and the final tally in Boston was 25.

PSU ewall actually stil has the loop archived if anyone wants to click....lol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2013/20130206/WRFEAST_12z/wrfeastloop.html

 

 

[hooralph]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, it was the Euro that massacred the spirits of nyc weenies

I am here for revenge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Probably will be a death band in CT...usually is.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

PSU ewall actually stil has the loop archived if anyone wants to click....lol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2013/20130206/WRFEAST_12z/wrfeastloop.html

 

 

yeah that really was a double headed freak

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Figured.

Nice looking mean. 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh.. wasn't that that storm where the run up had a Euro cycle ( mind you, back before confidence in that model started to get rattled...so everyone had to believe it - right), back in 24" clear to western NJ ... prompting blizzard warnings and SOE statements from the mayor of NYC? 

2"    .... priceless

 

Ant will be driving off a cliff if SNE gets 2' and he gets 2"

But it's a possibility. Hopefully the large nature of the storm at least drops warning snows this far west. 

[PhineasC]

Can someone post a Euro clown? I am on mobile.