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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
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The ICON has a pretty fine (approximated) resolution for a global model. From https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html: "the global ICON grid has 2,949,120 triangles, corresponding to an average area of 173 km² and thus to an effective mesh size of about 13 km."

Small scale spatial/temporal errors magnify quite significantly past 84 hours... Look at the NAM as an example. Would you trust it past hour 84?

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Just now, MegaMike said:

The ICON has a pretty fine (approximated) resolution for a global model. From https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html: "the global ICON grid has 2,949,120 triangles, corresponding to an average area of 173 km² and thus to an effective mesh size of about 13 km."

Small scale spatial/temporal errors magnify quite significantly past 84 hours... Look at the NAM as an example. Would you trust it past hour 84?

Right...most of the time, throwing out convective feedback is a copout...not with the ICON. It suffers from it every single run.

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3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pretty much our concern. You and I grab 1' for sand while places to our east pick up 2' of past and places to our west pick up 2' of dendrites.

Or it tracks up the CT Valley and it rains.... or goes back to wide east and sniff cirrus like yesterday's runs.  Plenty to be concerned about but getting a foot of snow seems like something that wouldn't be a concern at this point :lol:.

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3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Pretty much you and I's concern. We grab 1' of sand while places to our east pick up 2' of paste and places to our west pick up 2' of dendrites.

Happens to me more often than not...we average what we do bc we usually get scraps from each extreme, but seldom jackpot.

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I'm strongly suspecting this is evolving into total Megalopolis concern now that I'm seeing the 'nuances' of the last 3 cycles of the GEFs mean/spread products, and how they are cyclonically improving their circumvallate over the lower/interior M/A region... As of 12z, there are members if 978 mb abeam of the VA Cape, close enough to the coast ( then considering/knowing the ongoing jet coupling aloft at that time  ~ 114 hrs) to assume there is an explosive expansion of primitive CCB head snow over ROA-DCA ... destined to PHL-NYC-HFD-BOS-CON-PWM.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EPS didn't give off the same tenor -

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Or it tracks up the CT Valley and it rains.... or goes back to wide east and sniff cirrus like yesterday's runs.  Plenty to be concerned about but getting a foot of snow seems like something that wouldn't be a concern at this point :lol:.

Totally possible, but I don't think so.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm strongly suspecting this is evolving into total Megalopolis concern now that I'm seeing the 'nuances' of the last 3 cycles of the GEFs mean/spread products, and how they are cyclonically improving their circumvallate over the lower/interior M/A region... As of 12z, there are members if 978 mb abeam of the VA Cape, close enough to the coast ( then considering/knowing the ongoing jet coupling aloft at that time  ~ 114 hrs) to assume there is an explosive expansion of primitive CCB head snow over ROA-DCA ... destined to PHL-NYC-HFD-BOS-CON-PWM.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the EPS didn't give off the same tenor -

Too bad we can't get DC/BAL in on it too.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m most certainly not, but I’m surprised you are. You don’t live in central NH

Interior NE MA is probably in a good as spot as any right now. Far enough east to get the Ukie-Esque solutions but far enough west to still do pretty well in the hugger solutions. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally possible, but I don't think so.

I guess my point was being concerned with only getting a foot of snow and meso-scale maxes/mins seems premature given how far the models have changed in the last 12 hours alone.

I would sign on a dotted line right now for a foot of snow regardless of what people east or west get, ha.  Be interesting to see how many people would sign for that right now.

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