Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The northern stream energy that turns this north is coming in at a shallower angle of attack this run...so 12z GFS will be E of 06z unless something else offsets that

You know ...there's hidden gems about that ... It's like, this total synoptic evolution leaves something on the table because of that, YET, we still manage a 970s mb low through the Harbor with implications for 12-20 Metrowest out through the Hills/NW RI back to eastern CT, S  NH...

This has been the built in theme with this from the get-go, that it just has a ginormous upside -

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

IMHO a solution like that should be colder given the sfc high over Hudson Bay.

Not necessarily. 

[NorEastermass128]

I’m now wishing the messenger shuffles E. 

[bristolri_wx]

There’s hope for a decent storm for everyone here at this range. Can’t get a real handle on p-type issues until the high res models get into play. The fact that 500 mb looks good, and there is a storm not scooting out to sea or cutting to Toronto is enough for now at this range, even for the I95/SENE folks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Fast jet is fast.

Obscene! 

also... a classic signature

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Not necessarily. 

thanks

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure you can get much worse conditions for landing in BOS at 18z on Saturday than what a lot of guidance is showing.

SOP at BOS is that if there's something along the lines of this, BOS closes. The state issues a travel ban, they don't want people on the roads, and BOS wants the ramps empty so they can clear snow. It works exceedingly well, and the airport can get back to full ops the next day, as opposed to JFK, which usually takes a week to dig out.

So unless this goes well inland or ots, I wouldn't be surprised if this flight is proactively canceled on Friday.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

GEFS a bit more amped @ 96.

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Helpful context.  I am not jumping off any bridges over a model run 5 days out, but clearly want this to move just a bit more East over the next few days.  Rooting extremely hard for the big storm that this whole forum cashes in on.  Let the "losers" in this storm be people fighting about 10" vs 12" instead of 12" vs 0".

silly post.  if this moves east to keep it snow in hingham, a lot of folks on the northwest side are going to miss this.  Just say it out loud, " i want snow and f everyone elses snow".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'm just happy that Tip isn't telling us the HC will ruin our chances but instead, believes the ceiling is high...very high. 

[Winter Wizard]

10 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Fast jet is fast.

That's about as classic as it gets for a rapidly strengthening mid-latitude cyclone. Wouldn't sweat precipitation type issues at this stage. 

[dryslot]

This one has the look that someones going to get annihilated with hellacious rates.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

This one has the look that someones going to get annihilated with hellacious rates.

I'm hoping that Will compares this to Dec 1992

[UnitedWx]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can this be days and days of snows?

 

[George001]

The Canadian looks really good, I wonder if we would see a rain to snow type scenario with that as the low comes up the coast, due to the more tucked track it brings in some more warm air initally. However, as the low continues to deepen it creates its own cold air via dynamical cooling, changing over many areas in se mass from rain to blizzard conditions. Is this a possibility with the track and strength of the low?

[JC-CT]

uncle is in a good slp spot, but a convective mess

[SouthCoastMA]

The GEFS looks west leaning vs 6z. @120h

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

The GEFS looks west leaning vs 6z. 

And slower.

[PhineasC]

Tip always makes good threads. 

[dryslot]

Track on 12z UKIE would work for the folks on the coast as well as inland.

[SouthCoastMA]

GEFS mean still looks good for Coast, but if you look at the clusters it favors something crossing SEMASS/Cape

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gefs definitely slowing down with west leans of the mean. 

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The GEFS looks west leaning vs 6z. @120h

 more of a split camp.  some members almost miss the phase completely, others hug compared to the mean

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GEFS mean still looks good for Coast, but if you look at the clusters it favors something crossing SEMASS/Cape

Sounds like a great track. 

[Sn0waddict]

UKIE is bone dry west of the RI/CT boarder.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Track on 12z UKIE would work for the folks on the coast as well as inland.

It's kind of compact with precip....really an eastern zone special. Basically E MA/RI up to your area does well but not good for western areas.

[tim123]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Track on 12z UKIE would work for the folks on the coast as well as inland.

Don't even look at that garbage model. 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's kind of compact with precip....really an eastern zone special. Basically E MA/RI up to your area does well but not good for western areas.

Just a quick glance at where the SLP tracked is all i looked at, I don't have enough charts from SV to look at other then H5 and surface pretty much.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Don't even look at that garbage model. 

I didn't look at the ICON.

[HoarfrostHubb]

UKIE with 12-18" for Cape Cod, MA

James would enjoy this