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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

So for CT peeps - the 12z fv3 hires seems pretty well lined up to the band's current position. Looks like it has it working it back west over the next few hours to get even @Damage In Tollandand to the Tolland/Hartford county border. Unfortunately it then almost immediately starts to collapse as the surface low continues to get tugged northeast as it clearly has been. But a few hours delay in that tug could mean quite a lot.

However, it seems on the more aggressive side of st guidance with the western push.

That’s what I’ve been banking on. It will be close . Will need that to get 15+ If not .. it’s 12-13” . Probably more for you either way 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

We’ve had stretches where they all come northwest. My band last Dec was a late modeling push NW. some of the biggies have just been east lately.

Yeah, rarely (never?) does a forecast work out perfectly, so at least half the time it's a tick east.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’ve had stretches where they all come northwest. My band last Dec was a late modeling push NW. some of the biggies have just been east lately.

LOL that one still whiffed me too.

I've ended up preferring to see the models show marginal cutters/inland runners that can trend SE and turn into elevation events. That's been more reliable for me last two winters.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any new thoughts .. westward push/ pivot ? Seems like it can pivot here for a 1-3 hour period 

I don’t see anything enlightening in the last hour. I think guidance is mostly doing ok except it’s probably a bit light under the banding over E MA. 
 

You should get some outer bands in your area. You can still see a bit of a Nw push in E CT

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RI Rob

RI Rob

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS will prob have a foot like 2-3 hours from now. Lol. They must have at least 6-7 by now. I’m already over 6 and they have some serious meat to go through 

image.gif.7c32001ea850cd5b644511bf4762cc7f.gif

Is the thought that the heaviest banding currently over Weymouth will pivot into Boston?

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’ve had stretches where they all come northwest. My band last Dec was a late modeling push NW. some of the biggies have just been east lately.

This one is unusual in that the mid levels closing off (timing) and tracks were always great for the interior but the surface track worsened. You guys will still get a good storm out of this bc of the former.

It doesn’t help either that your climo raises the bar for  what is a big snowstorm event. 

My big take home is that if the flow is fast off the east coast without blocking, sell the clean phase.

At the end of the day I think a ++NAO bit us again. Not terribly, but enough to reduce this to best storm of the year, from best in 10 or 20.

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’ve had stretches where they all come northwest. My band last Dec was a late modeling push NW. some of the biggies have just been east lately.

Yea, of course the one that was modeled to hit me drifted, and this one grounds itself in Boston. MLK gets tugged NW by N Stream queef, and this chases convective tail just far enough east.

Beat goes on.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

I was referring to this. Seems like it's stuck just SE of Metro Boston. 

 

https://ibb.co/B2b90gP

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

I was referring to this. Seems like it's stuck just SE of Metro Boston. 

 

https://ibb.co/B2b90gP

 

 

The good band is over Boston but the best goods are SE.  Hard to know if it is as strong when it reaches the city.

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