Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It would be really unusual for Harvey to honk 24+ and it fizzles.   Snow is slowly increasing in intensity and we’re still 6-8 hours from the goods.   

I could see a scenario where I end up with like 15" and he nonchalantly and unceremoniously pulls a 12-18" swath down to route 128 around noon time....then Norwell CJs to 28", and every one massages his prostate all day long..."chalk another one up for Harv!". IDK...let's allow it to play out.

[MarkO]

32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't see 24"+ working our for SE MA but we'll see.

Go back to your room

[78Blizzard]

Euro held serve, even a tad better here.

[wxsniss]

Tracks somewhere between 12z and 18z, ie not as good as 18z

[CCHurricane]

I know we’re in nowcast, but for what it’s worth, 00z with what looks to be a slight bump East in QPF output when compared to 12z.

1.2 inches of QPF for everyone east of southern NH, central MA, and through Central CT.

Ratios should have any trouble being 12-15:1, and Boston points south down to Cape Cod 18-24”.

[78Blizzard]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Tracks somewhere between 12z and 18z, ie not as good as 18z

I was comparing to 12z when I said a tad better, sorry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CCHurricane said:

I know we’re in nowcast, but for what it’s worth, 00z with what looks to be a slight bump East in QPF output when compared to 12z.

1.2 inches of QPF for everyone east of southern NH, central MA, and through Central CT.

Ratios should have any trouble being 12-15:1, and Boston points south down to Cape Cod 18-24”.

That is what I was just envisioning...Boston points south approaches 24"...that's a blown forecast for him in my mind. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Why is everyone so worried in this forum? Just curious. Storm is just starting to get its act together. 

I think some need to understand when we talk it out, the possibility of what could have been, were not cancelling the event. Tracking a big one is time consuming, fun…but can be exhausting. So When the pieces are sooo close to fitting but they can’t seem to hold each other together properly… one can experience agitation, nausea, and is of high risk for a lengthy case of diarrhea. 

[CCHurricane]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It would be really unusual for Harvey to honk 24+ and it fizzles.   Snow is slowly increasing in intensity and we’re still 6-8 hours from the goods.   

Euro shows no sign of fizzle thankfully. 1.6-1.8 QPF at current temps can certainly get to 24” with ratios likely to be far better than 10:1.

He would have been much better off simply putting 18-24+, rather than such a widespread +2 feet.

[weathafella]

Euro captured a tad later but not much difference in results.

[WeatherWilly]

Live by the Euro. Die by the Euro

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I was comparing to 12z when I said a tad better, sorry.

No worries! Was anticipating the 12z-18z improvement would continue, but not to be.

Still a tug of war of lows and not sure we've stabilized. This run tugs the low almost northwest as it gets captured, but that occurs later.

[ORH_wxman]

BOS 18”

ORH 17”

PVD 18”

BDL 13”

 

first and last call. There will be a band of 20”+ on south shore and another somewhere 495 or metrowest. I don’t quite think we’re gonna do widespread 2 feet but I admittedly keep staring at H7 and doubting myself, lol. 

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro c#ptured a tad later but not much difference in results.

Euro/RAP have settled around 1.5" for us... let's hope that stabilizes. With banding and 13-15:1 ratios, that would still give us a shot at 20+

[78Blizzard]

05z RAP here has 2"/hr rates still from 21z-23z and 1"/hr from 23z-01z.  Then it tapers off.

Edit- Using the higher ratio.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS 18”

ORH 17”

PVD 18”

BDL 13”

 

first and last call. There will be a band of 20”+ on south shore and another somewhere 495 or metrowest. I don’t quite think we’re gonna do widespread 2 feet but I admittedly keep staring at H7 and doubting myself, lol. 

Tonight’s euro H7 is near perfect.   H85 inflow ain’t bad to put it mildly.   

[George001]

I’m thinking Boston gets around 40 or so. I believe the snow ratios are being underestimated, and will be 20:1 or 25:1 in that death band that’s going to set up somewhere in eastern mass, sit there and rotate. The dynamics in that early Jan storm? Amazing, but in this storm the dynamics are expected to be even stronger. We have frigid Canadian air clashing with warmer than average oceans, I saw that the contrast was something crazy like temps in 20s clashing with ocean temps near 80 down south. That is helping beef up the low to what will eventually be tropical storm strength (I do believe the low will deepen more than expected by the models, to the 950s rather than 960s). The low is also closing off and stalling, so we could see like 4-6 inches of snow an hour for like 6 straight hours under the death band. QPF maps won’t pick up on that.

[TalcottWx]

Regional radar looks extremely bullish to me. 

[CCHurricane]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m thinking Boston gets around 40 or so. I believe the snow ratios are being underestimated, and will be 20:1 or 25:1 in that death band that’s going to set up somewhere in eastern mass, sit there and rotate. The dynamics in that early Jan storm? Amazing, but in this storm the dynamics are expected to be even stronger. We have frigid Canadian air clashing with warmer than average oceans, I saw that the contrast was something crazy like temps in 20s clashing with ocean temps near 80 down south. That is helping beef up the low to what will eventually be tropical storm strength (I do believe the low will deepen more than expected by the models, to the 950s rather than 960s). The low is also closing off and stalling, so we could see like 4-6 inches of snow an hour for like 6 straight hours under the death band. QPF maps won’t pick up on that.

Channeling your inner James, go wild!

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m thinking Boston gets around 40 or so. I believe the snow ratios are being underestimated, and will be 20:1 or 25:1 in that death band that’s going to set up somewhere in eastern mass, sit there and rotate. The dynamics in that early Jan storm? Amazing, but in this storm the dynamics are expected to be even stronger. We have frigid Canadian air clashing with warmer than average oceans, I saw that the contrast was something crazy like temps in 20s clashing with ocean temps near 80 down south. That is helping beef up the low to what will eventually be tropical storm strength (I do believe the low will deepen more than expected by the models, to the 950s rather than 960s). The low is also closing off and stalling, so we could see like 4-6 inches of snow an hour for like 6 straight hours under the death band. QPF maps won’t pick up on that.

Why not just go with 40-70 for BOS to make sure you have all bases covered?

My DE place was supposed to get 10-18 but they already have 30" and there are now epicosity warnings for up to 60. I'd hate to see you bust, man.

[CCHurricane]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Regional radar looks extremely bullish to me. 

Agreed. We’ll have to wait and see whether the precip gets pulled east once the LP situation is resolved. 

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Regional radar looks extremely bullish to me. 

Agree

Guidance just yanks it east chasing that further low.

9z-15z this morning is when that further low makes it presence... will be a good nowcast

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro captured a tad later but not much difference in results.

Later, later, later for days....who could have guessed....

[George001]

Unfortunately the 0z hasn’t loaded yet on tropical tidbits, but man that temp contrast is insane. Like -20c in eastern mass to above freezing just offshore. The thermals all around that area in eastern mass are warmer, there’s gotta be an absurd amount of dynamical cooling going on there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Agree

Guidance just yanks it east chasing that further low.

9z-15z this morning is when that further low makes it presence... will be a good nowcast

 

I was just pretty much saying the same thing in the OBS thread.

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m thinking Boston gets around 40 or so. I believe the snow ratios are being underestimated, and will be 20:1 or 25:1 in that death band that’s going to set up somewhere in eastern mass, sit there and rotate. The dynamics in that early Jan storm? Amazing, but in this storm the dynamics are expected to be even stronger. We have frigid Canadian air clashing with warmer than average oceans, I saw that the contrast was something crazy like temps in 20s clashing with ocean temps near 80 down south. That is helping beef up the low to what will eventually be tropical storm strength (I do believe the low will deepen more than expected by the models, to the 950s rather than 960s). The low is also closing off and stalling, so we could see like 4-6 inches of snow an hour for like 6 straight hours under the death band. QPF maps won’t pick up on that.

Goerge, George , George.... I admire your enthusiasm. However, 40" for Boston? 4-6" per hour band that lasts 6 straight hours? Although it is not impossible, I dont think this is the storm to do this. I'm just trying to bring you down from that cloud in the sky. 

Trust me... That optimism I'll is amazing and you should never lose that, but I'm saying this to you so you won't be disappointed after the Storm is over ( trust me, where I am in central Ct, I would love to get under one of the heavy bands that sets up ), but again, staying real here as I know our chances for that are low. I'll tak e my 12" and be very happy here. You should take your 24" ( and possibly a little more ) and run with that! ;-)

[wxsniss]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Tonight’s euro H7 is near perfect.   H85 inflow ain’t bad to put it mildly.   

Yep

Should be a fun Saturday afternoon

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just pretty much saying the same thing in the OBS thread.

Was hanging out in here... I see it now, time to transfer over

Get sleep man... I think the most critical nowcast is early Saturday AM

[George001]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Goerge, George , George.... I admire your enthusiasm. However, 40" for Boston? 4-6" per hour band that lasts 6 straight hours? Although it is not impossible, I dont think this is the storm to do this. I'm just trying to bring you down from that cloud in the sky. 

Trust me... That optimism I'll is amazing and you should never lose that, but I'm saying this to you so you won't be disappointed after the Storm is over ( trust me, where I am in central Ct, I would love to get under one of the heavy bands that sets up ), but again, staying real here as I know our chances for that are low. I'll tak e my 12" and be very happy here. You should take your 24" ( and possibly a little more ) and run with that! ;-)

Yeah I could definitely be overestimating the ratios, if I am we won’t get anywhere near 40. That is in the back of my mind, and if it happens it happens. Regardless, it will be the biggest storm I’ve had since 2018 so I’m just happy it’s happening, I wouldn’t even be disappointed with 18. For most storms it takes an awful lot of mental gymnastics to convince myself that I even have a shot at 18 (I try to be objective, but sometimes my weenie goggles cloud my judgement). I have a really good feeling about this one based on what I’m seeing on the models and the observations, but we will know more tomorrow morning. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Yeah I could definitely be overestimating the ratios, if I am we won’t get anywhere near 40. That is in the back of my mind, and if it happens it happens. Regardless, it will be the biggest storm I’ve had since 2018 so I’m just happy it’s happening, I wouldn’t even be disappointed with 18. For most storms it takes an awful lot of mental gymnastics to convince myself that I even have a shot at 18 (I try to be objective, but sometimes my weenie goggles cloud my judgement). I have a really good feeling about this one based on what I’m seeing on the models and the observations, but we will know more tomorrow morning. 

Don’t stop… believin’… hold on to that feeeeeeelin’…