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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Most difficult forecast I have ever observed in multiple decades of following winter weather. Anyway, here is my view on the impending Blizzard (hopefully, maybe) of '22. For in depth look at why this forecast is so excruciatingly, if the event that you have a rather keen interest in watching paint try, have read for a glimpse into my rationale. Otherwise, should be firing up around midnight from south to north, and going (hopefully) strong throughout the day tomorrow before winding down Saturday evening. If this comes together as is should/could, it has the potential to deposit snowfall rivaling that of the Blizzard of 1978, however, confidence in an outcome of that magnitude is tempered by some odd phenomenon going on offshore (see blog). Infrastructure is likely to be paralyzed tomorrow, unless I am somewhat delusional, which is a possibility.
Now time to sleep for about 12 hours-

FINAL CALL.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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58 minutes ago, wkd said:

I liked Tip's post saying that the dual lows at this point is just a reflection of computer algorithms.  I believe there have been a lot of comments saying it looks unrealistic.  This storm's evolution should be a test of the model's capability in the relative short term.  Over the years there have been numerous times the models have shown the  "chasing the convection scenario".  It would be interesting to know the statistics on the ultimate outcome. 

Well thank you but .. I didn't really say 'algorithms'  haha.  Okay though -

I simpler terms,..the models' convection parameters might be to "too smart for their own good". They're sensitive, and the region astride the EC is a powderkeg at rest state ... pretty much at all times.  It may ( metaphorically) overwhelm the models, such that they get carried away - faux convection. 

This is an area of physics that is a little different that tracking a S/W, and propagating them through a field.  All the models can really do is set up instability - budgeting where convection fires gets down closer to chaos.  They can't really predict that, and the convection we have been seeing, what they are using to developing the dual/triple lows, may not exist in reality...  I mean there will be convection out there, but the models are creating it, and relying on the created mass to direct their results...

 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I do think leading up to these storms the NWS/TV have a hard time sort of resetting when there's a trend toward a bust or more caution flags as the event nears. Ramping up is easy but no one wants to back down. After all the trends today this does not look like the same storm I was expecting when I went today... but you wouldn't know that from watching TV or reading that BOX AFD.

I could definitely be wrong but there are far more caution flags right now than things that make me super stoked.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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4 minutes ago, hooralph said:

At his age and experience, Harvey just has no f*cks left to give. 

He’s now like Al Michaels when he will unabashedly talk about sports gambling in the middle of the broadcast…he knows he’s a legend and doesn’t give a shit about playing it safe. 
 

That said, Harvey did this in the 2/15/15 storm too. He was basically the only met who stuck to his guns on huge snows in E Ma despite model guidance trying to give us a pedestrian advisory event. Sometimes the upper air is just so overwhelming. I also think he knows that there’s the fluff factor to lean back on….if the storm ends up a bit more seaward, there’s still the exceptional ML/Deformation that will have incredible snow growth and maybe winds not quite as strong in that scenario. 

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dryslot

dryslot

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast.

 

You or eckster working?

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