Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[WalpoleJoe]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Just listened to Harvey not even a peep about backing down. 

I was surprised he didn't temper it a bit...he's the best, I hope he is right

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yet both still managed to split Tolland in half . I wish you guys were familiar with this area. It doesn’t happen like that lol. But it’s a good map IMO

It's not like half of tolland is going to get 6-12" and the other half will get 12-20". It doesnt work like that either. It's there to show a transition between ranges. The line also cuts through north haven and a lot of other towns in the NE. The line has to be somewhere and wouldn't look right if it followed town outlines. I just think its more noticeable because we have all the towns on the map itself. Snowfall maps rarely work out to be 100% perfect for every specific town, its there to show the general idea, which i think is about the same as our first call with a more SW to NE tilt.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is honest question.. in storms like this.. shouldn’t past big boys similar in scope be factored in quite a bit vs just looking at models and calling them trash and then lowering numbers ? To me .. H7 and H5 and experience tell me to stay the course 

Sure, but that means you have to factor in all the upper air patterns that match and by no means are the analogs a lock on widespread heavy snowfall. 

What these tell me is that the coast looks pretty locked in, even the bad ones still caught the coast with decent snow. But there are also a couple complete whiffs in there. I don't think that happens obviously, but it goes to show you that this type of upper air pattern can produce many different results.

[mattm4242]

I can’t imagine Harvey would keep hyping it up if he didn’t genuinely believe it, same for all the other local mets.

But the trend seems hard to ignore.

[George001]

1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

I can’t imagine Harvey would keep hyping it up if he didn’t genuinely believe it, same for all the other local mets.

But the trend seems hard to ignore.

If he’s still in, I’m still in. Models are easy to ignore when the obs suggest they are wrong (at least the QPF outputs and snow maps, the 500 mb looks better).

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?

I've been thinking that.

[Cmass495]

FWIW, Bouchard just upped his map, went 18-24 from Holden east 

[mattm4242]

Even Pete is doubling down, this was ten minutes ago.

 

[RI Rob]

Just now, mattm4242 said:

Even Pete is doubling down, this was 6 minutes ago.

https://twitter.com/PeteNBCBoston/status/1487191696110727171?s=20&t=z_lkOJjSzsqkuT1KjTNSEw

I don't understand.

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I've been thinking that.

Granted for storms that have no chance of slipping out to sea, the SSTAs will obviously be a positive factor in terms of intensification, but that might not be the case for borderline events or those that suddenly have double low configs.

[WxFreak11]

Are there any other models that NWS uses that we don’t have access to? Trying figure out why they are still gung ho with the forecast when recent model trends are looking bad. 

[Henry's Weather]

Yeah, what are these meta seeing that's increasing their confidence? Both BOX and Harvey and Bouchard

[dan11295]

I am certainly not a pro met, but it would seem upping totals at this stage is simply not supported by guidance.

.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

29 minutes ago, mostman said:

Inside 12 hours until formation and BOX is straight up tossing the models. Bold. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. 

Every forecast office up and down the coast is holding tight or shifting gradients slightly west.  Time to stop looking at models and start looking at actual satellite and radar imagery.

 

[TheSnowman]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most difficult call I have ever seen

YA?!  Try Disorganizing Gigs and meetings and hands with 40 people over 6 days Rental Cars and Flights....

 

Or Not..... all based on you guys expertise and data.   

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, WxFreak11 said:

Are there any other models that NWS uses that we don’t have access to? Trying figure out why they are still hung ho with the forecast when recent model trends are looking bad. 

[Swiscaster]

49 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Amazing discussion. One for the books. 

Unless the GFS is right.  I guess it could still be for the books in that case, but for a different reason.

[PhineasC]

I can see staying the course right now, but upping totals at this point seems foolhardy. The models are all in agreement and not likely to be that wrong this close. 

[FSUIZZY]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, what are these meta seeing that's increasing their confidence? Both BOX and Harvey and Bouchard

It feels like they all called each other up said screw the models trends. Seems more like Wishcasting but I know it's not they must know something with all their combined years doing this. I feel they are doing this for public safety reasons just incase. 

[radarman]

13 minutes ago, andyhb said:

So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?

no earlier than after it happens

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I am certainly not a pro met, but it would seem upping totals at this stage is simply not supported by guidance.

.

A forecast needs to be issued. Some of the stuff came in while they were probably issuing the forecast. For newscasters, they will have another model cycle before 11 pm to look at, as well as Radar and satellite.

They will probably issue updated forecasts this evening if trends continue and actual weather conditions warrant it.

[EastonSN+]

Gotta watch channel 6 news CT to see what they think about the latest.

[Swiscaster]

4 minutes ago, WxFreak11 said:

Are there any other models that NWS uses that we don’t have access to? Trying figure out why they are still gung ho with the forecast when recent model trends are looking bad. 

Probably just lag.  We have no lag here in these weather boards.  Ink on the model run is not even dry and we are either rigid or suicidal instantly.  They have to take time to digest the runs and prepare a product that goes through some sort of review process before it goes out to the public (I assume?).  That all takes time. 

[rockchalk83]

14 minutes ago, andyhb said:

So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?

I had been wondering this same thing for the last couple days. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

I wouldn't change a thing if I were a TV met. I'd call for a general 6-12 statewide and say west of the river could see less than 6 and east of the river could see more than 12.

 

As a matter of principle, I will stick with my personal guess of 12-18 for I-91 on east.

[WxWatcher007]

Stepped away for a few hours. Wow. This one will be wild all the way to the end. 

Chips fall mode. Let’s get it on. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

My front running "pre-snows" never showed up today.  

[George001]

Just now, dan11295 said:

I am certainly not a pro met, but it would seem upping totals at this stage is simply not supported by guidance.

.

Guidance supports more than the QPF maps indicate. I’m no met either, but from what I have read the surface is also not supported by obs, the low is more west and is deepening more than expected. I mean look at this, the 12z euro which is “bad” qpf wise has 3 CLOSED CONTOURS off the cape. Bernie Rayno said on his livestream that a good rule of thumb is 1 foot of snow for each closed contour. It starts closing off south of Long Island and continues to deepen. 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It's not like half of tolland is going to get 6-12" and the other half will get 12-20". It doesnt work like that either. It's there to show a transition between ranges. The line also cuts through north haven and a lot of other towns in the NE. The line has to be somewhere and wouldn't look right if it followed town outlines. I just think its more noticeable because we have all the towns on the map itself. Snowfall maps rarely work out to be 100% perfect for every specific town, its there to show the general idea, which i think is about the same as our first call with a more SW to NE tilt.

No I get it. But strictly from a topographic view .. if you’re draining maps and lines.. From South Windsor up thru the western half of Ellington up to western half of Somers is a much better line . Somers has Soapstone Mtn and Ellington has elevation thst borders Tolland on the E side . But if you drive over Soapstone at 1k which is like 6 minutes from me down into the center of Somers you are in the valley . 

[Henry's Weather]

Just looking at midlevels, it seems like if an eastern mesoscale low doesn't form, everyone west of the river just competely pounds. We can see that in the name, which would have been a completely crunching if not for a 6 hour periods of chasing convection. My question is, and maybe it's a dumb question: what about the upper air would suggest that the western low regains primacy after the eastern low has been favored? Especially when before the eastern low was favored in the first place, our LP was further west. It seems like an intra-run 6 hour hiccup, but all the models seem to show it to varying degrees. Why?