Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Juliancolton]

47 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

"its not resolved!  its not resolved!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob

You don't see too many dril references on here.

[Swiscaster]

I just saw 24-36” for Boston on Fox News (commence flaming) but then I come in here and it’s all gloom and doom. I’ve been thinking about chasing to Boston but is that not gonna verify for them now or something?

 

 

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Every model has been awful

The models did a great job in the long and medium range sniffing out the threat, but have struggled with the details.

[CoastalWx]

RAP actually does look pretty good at hr 21. So 15z tomorrow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Every model has been awful

Yea but the eps went tucky tucky at 6z this morning with alot of west leaners, and then shat itself at 12z. When the most reliable with apparent high scores on some h5 chart behaves like the nam, we have a problem. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Meanwhile the most reliable close in close in model the RAP keeps looking great 

Hmm, First time i hear you mention it.

[George001]

Just now, Swiscaster said:

I just saw 24-36” on Fox News (commence flaming) but then I come in here and it’s all gloom and doom. I’ve been thinking about chasing to Boston but is that not gonna verify for them now or something?

 

 

It will likely verify but a lot of posters here are farther west. In eastern mass we are good for 2ft even on the more east models.

[Henry's Weather]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Meanwhile the most reliable close in close in model the RAP keeps looking great 

FWIW, it closes off at H5 50 miles SE of Cape May. That'd be a classic solution I'd think

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

RAP actually does look pretty good at hr 21. So 15z tomorrow.

It does well in these big boys. I know Will puts a fair amount of weight on it as we close in . He mentions it quite often 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

RAP actually does look pretty good at hr 21. So 15z tomorrow.

That's a  run going there.

[TalcottWx]

I'm bullish. Shock to no one. I think this is going to be just fine. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It goes back to the question someone posed before...have models become too sensitive to farts and queefs from their higher resolution?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Are we close enough now for red taggers to choose which models initialized well and at hour 6 are closest to actual conditions?  I understand storms over a warmer than normal Atlantic may pull the surface low Eastward, but so far, in the battle of the 12Z models, which is closest at 12Z and 18Z?

[dryslot]

The 12z HRRR and the 18z HRRR end result for here anyways was no different, 1.15"-1.13" qpf

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm bullish. Shock to no one. I think this is going to be just fine. 

Even with the furthest east solutions its over a foot IYBY and in mine. Hopefully the RAP is correct, so WOR can get a foot and we can get 2

[Go Kart Mozart]

17 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

I think I'm going to break my dry January. 

I'm thinking the same thing...or at least OD on edibles.

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

A NCAR employee saying that the grid resolution of the model that beats the US's own nwp month after month after month shouldn't be used is kind of rich, tbh.

I should've been more explicit with that prompt. My bad!

That was a comment for the WRF modeling system,  but the "convective grey zone" is a problem for all modeling systems really. The Met Office acknowledges it too - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/grey-zone-project/index

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

1 minute ago, Swiscaster said:

I just saw 24-36” for Boston on Fox News (commence flaming) but then I come in here and it’s all gloom and doom. I’ve been thinking about chasing to Boston but is that not gonna verify for them now or something?

 

 

Boston is still one of the best spots to be, South Shore MA an even better spot. As others have noted, it's likely going to come down to nowcasting mesoscale features to determine whether this is a 12-18" event in eastern areas or if the more outrageous high end totals will be in the cards. If you're going to chase in Eastern MA you're going to get a good snowstorm regardless, but something historic isn't locked in at all IMO. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Georgios Big 3 NAVY Model shed the dual lows at 12z - Step it up George you need to be on this. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

FWIW, it closes off at H5 50 miles SE of Cape May. That'd be a classic solution I'd think

Kind of the evolution the globals and NAM had until today . We’ll see . These things always have surprises 

[Baroclinic Zone]

RAP vs Euro at 5h 12z tomorrow.

 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The 12z HRRR and the 18z HRRR end result for here anyways was no different, 1.15"-1.13" qpf

Pretty similar.  Good QPF in CT and eastern areas.  10:1 map before anyone loses their mind, no Kuchie Ku.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast.

Not really sure what to make of it.

You know this obviously ...but it appears that outward ejected low is entirely convective driven.. .Maybe just add that the antecedent fast mid level flow exiting the coast assisting evac?   Like it's interpreting that as the cyclogen domain space..

blah blah, but barring some exotic explanation, that above really does strain believability - all this potential just blows up into fractured elements like this.  700mb displacing here... premature lows half way to England..  Snark but just sayn'.  ha, maybe the storm got too powerful ...like a battery over-volt explodes. 

[RobertSul]

1 hour ago, msg112469 said:

Boston is going wind up with a #1 all time snowfall from this and people are ready to jump off a bridge because the NAM isn't printing 35-40" anymore. That was expected BTW. You people are out of your minds.

What do you mean by “you people”?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I also think if we can get that ULL closed off sooner the convective blob will become irrelevant.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty similar.  Good QPF in CT and eastern areas.  10:1 map before anyone loses their mind, no Kuchie Ku.

 

Sad we can't move the blob under LI and hoist it to the NW by 50-100 miles

[mattm4242]

This was after the euro, though I’m sure they had it ready to go before.

[HimoorWx]

16 minutes ago, Greg said:

I was going to say something positive that I saw but don't really want to start an arguement.

You spelled argument incorrectly, you #%*&ing moron!  There, I'll start it for you.  

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sad we can't move the blob under LI and hoist it to the NW by 50-100 miles

You may be able to, ha.  That's what I was looking at... move that north by 50 miles and CT is smoked.

As it is that run is 12-20" from like Dryslot to ORH to BDL down to SW CT.  I'm assuming 1" of QPF would register 14" of snow or so.

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, mattm4242 said:

This was after the euro, though I’m sure they had it ready to go before.

Looks fair...nothing historic, just a big snowstorm