Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think I'm too high in the Hartford area. Hard to keep 12-20" when you have a pretty notable jump east with the mid level low centers especially.

okay good, i'm not crazy for thinking that the 700mb low was not a "banding back to springfield" track. Maybe more like steve to tickling iowastorm - and then obviously pulling east from there

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

 

Oops, ignore that first quote. Not sure why it did that…

[bristolri_wx]

It’s been lightly snowing here in Newport most of the morning. That’s a good sign in my opinion. The big ones, when summarized, always start out with light rain, drizzle, flurries, etc before all hell breaks loose. Totally unscientific analysis here, but I’m not fretting the Euro changes too much at the moment but do feel bad for those on the edge…

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

It’s been lightly snowing here in Newport most of the morning. That’s a good sign in my opinion. The big ones, when summarized, always start out with light rain, drizzle, flurries, etc before all hell breaks loose. Totally unscientific analysis here, but I’m not fretting the Euro changes too much at the moment but do feel bad for those on the edge…

It’s partly sunny here now.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I think I'm too high in the Hartford area. Hard to keep 12-20" when you have a pretty notable jump east with the mid level low centers especially.

Well.. Low chance but maybe we'll have a slight correction back west at 18z ( one can hope ). Yes.. I do have a life ( dont judge ) ;-)

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

This place will be lit tonight. 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

500mb is all set up for a whopper yet the mesoscale kicks us in the face

Funny ...was looking at the 24 hr, 500 mb layout just last hour ( 12z ...). All models depicted the western N/A mid latitude ridge pretty far west.  I mean the whole eastern structure could theoretically afford a position back W of where is such by some - yet ...allowing for that, the models then find a way to stretch even more seemingly theoretically impossible.  haha awesome

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

okay good, i'm not crazy for thinking that the 700mb low was not a "banding back to springfield" track. Maybe more like steve to tickling iowastorm - and then obviously pulling east from there

Quoted 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Quoted 

Quoted for what?

Why do you find it so gddamn difficult to distinguish between reading a model output and making a forecast?

[klw]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

let's spill a bunch of oil on the atlantic east of delaware and set it on fire

Didn't you just describe the Jersey Shore?

 

 

(I grew up in NJ so I can make that joke)

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Quoted for what?

Why do you find it so gddamn difficult to distinguish between reading a model output and making a forecast?

He's poking your buttons. 

(Points out the guy whose had two meltdowns in three days) 

[Cyclone-68]

I should have seen this coming when I recently opened a new bank account and they gave me a free toaster 

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Generator and snowblower are full and have 10 gallons additional gasoline 

Liquor? If i was your wife i would need it.

[CT Rain]

The 18z HRRR is so far southeast with these double barrel lows near the convection. It's a really really odd evolution.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I need to see if my old behavioral sciences professor is still alive and send him the link for this thread. 

[78Blizzard]

29 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yeah.  You can't blame them.  If this does end up going sideways, then someone needs to figure out how we can get these models to be more in the ballpark on this type of weather event in the future.  Yes, I know "these are tools and you need to know how to use them", but at the same time, I feel confident there's highly trained mets throwing shit in their offices wondering how the hell are they supposed to forecast with so many changes to the data 6-12 hours from when the storm is supposed to start based on location.  I can't begin to imagine the amount of data that I don't have access to that there is to analyze when this is your trained profession and job to do.

This isn't me melting - I think modeling is fascinating, and it's always interesting to me when they take a dump, especially very close in to an event.  This is probably why NWS has been trying to be conservative with forecasts while we have been following along here.

I have to laugh at this.  I remember the days of on-air forecasters like Don Kent and Bob Copeland who had no access to models and had rudimentary satellite photos for their "technology", yet they managed to get most of the big storms right.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Quoted for what?

Why do you find it so gddamn difficult to distinguish between reading a model output and making a forecast?

You do this every storm when you think it’s slipping away . You did it Jan 7 and walked away with 15”. And then act amazed it snowed 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, subdude said:

This place will be lit tonight. 

Wives scrambling for the fire extinguisher as late night melts on AmWx burn so hot rooms begin to combust. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

FINAL CALL:

Im not confident in this at all, I’m hedging we get an ever so slight tick back west. Think 2 foot amounts may be hard to come by. Sharp cutoff west of ginxy 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

okay good, i'm not crazy for thinking that the 700mb low was not a "banding back to springfield" track. Maybe more like steve to tickling iowastorm - and then obviously pulling east from there

I agree with you.  Here are the 2 Euro 700mb images.

[CT Rain]

Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast.

Not really sure what to make of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

FWIW, From Bernie Rayno, great Accuweather meteorologist:

“BTW what you are seeing in modeling with minor changes is classic  WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECT..Stay in the middle and don't get pushed around. The overall pattern and snowstorm is unchanged”

Seems like sound advice.  Here out on far NW fringe of storm, I am just pulling for something memorable to play out in ENE.  Enjoy.

He and JB are weenies

[dryslot]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm salty. wait til i have a few drinks tonight

If you couldn't already tell, Many started after 0z runs last night.

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The 18z HRRR is so far southeast with these double barrel lows near the convection. It's a really really odd evolution.

It gives Long Island 2 feet of snow surprisingly.

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay...I'm changing the title of this thread...

Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted pain in the balls storm, no longer a matter of confidence - it's happening: 30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides for everyone yet no where

I don't know what's more epic. This would-be storm, or the pain in my balls.  Supposed to be tomorrow... just one day, and the models are still fumbling around humping any possible tedious nuance in order to not know what is happening.  All these advances in the technology ... might as well be 1980

[RI Rob]

I think I'm going to break my dry January. 

[Cold Miser]

23 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I feel like we lost sight of the fact it's the day of the storm. But hard not to, when there is an all time rugpull like that. All jokes aside here. I busted Phins balls and he absolutely called it. He can stay. 

 

Is it really a rugpull though?

[msg112469]

51 minutes ago, DomNH said:

It was never printing 40'' if you actually know what you're looking at. 

I'm sorry. You're right. It was the Euro, but you get the idea. It's common for snow totals to come down as you get closer to game time on large events! You should know that since I've seen you on this forum for the better part of a decade. 

The reason I posted this time around is because of the magnitude of what was possible. 

 

It doesn't look like we'll get 4 feet. We'll likely get 2 feet in the Boston area and I'm OK with that.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast.

Not really sure what to make of it.

Is the HP over Quebec causing blocking?

It almost seems like its occluding and then shunted east by confluence.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do this every storm when you think it’s slipping away . You did it Jan 7 and walked away with 15”. And then act amazed it snowed 

I really believe I'm just fine. I do think it's slipping away for some people.

You're right, I did walk away with 15" on 1/7. But most people didn't come close to that, and so it was a lonely 15". I'd much rather not jack but enjoy the social satisfaction of general euphoria when everyone is getting in on a biggie, than jack on a storm where there are more have-nots than haves.