Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's all about that stupid dual low. If guidance is off (whether weaker or barely any semblance of it) that will change the whole evolution. 

I don't understand, and we discussed the other night, why a rapidly deepening cyclone would have a dual low. It must be the got dam Hadley Cell ripping the convection NE or something that won't allow this thing to go nuclear. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'll wait until this finishes and models get the data

Tell them to look out the plane window and count how many Ls they see. 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The high rez models are going west as the globals go east. 

Great point. On air guys don't see frazzled. So, that's encouraging at least. 

[moneypitmike]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you think that's realistic, Ray?

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, RI Rob said:

Stupid question. At what point will we have a better understanding if the dual low will actually pop up? I imagine it's just a nowcasting situation?

Probably by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

I WANT ATTENTION GIVE ME ATTENTION

Hi George

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As long as any “trends” are ova 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Do you think that's realistic, Ray?

You'll see soon..lots to mull

[Zeus]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Accept! I accept! 

The contract is sealed. Please prepare and herein memorialize the 12z outputs to set forth our starting mark.

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Probably by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

Yeah I agree with this. Don't think guidance has fully resolved that feature yet.

[George001]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Hi George

Knock it all you want but if the eastern low doesn’t form, it could end up being right.

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Probably by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

Million dollar answer for a million dollar question.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is really turning into an intolerable situation for the MA offices, up through NYC ...  This series at 12z basically removed them from even winter storm warning criteria - arguably .. - yet they were cooked into believing a blizzard was en route.  They have blizzard headlines down there that frankly, don't have a prayer at verifying "IF" this 12z Euro had any say.

And if these are right solutions - the elephant in the room is that the models, et al, could not get this right at 30 hours -

although, does the GFS re-enter the discussion there? I dunno - might be right for the wrong reasons in that case... separate headache. 

Eastern LI does very well.  NYC  meets winter storm warning criteria. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

What happens if the next run moves it 50 miles west?

You’ll get more snow?

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

They did another RECON flight?

yup

[CoastalWx]

Recon won't help with the dual low issue. That is from mesoscale convective processes. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You’ll get more snow?

You hit that one out of the park!!

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

these models are showing kuchera ratios of like 18-20+ to 1 in some places. That's not happening either

Columbia Ct the capital center of EOR Ct

[JC-CT]

Just now, George001 said:

Knock it all you want but if the eastern low doesn’t form, it could end up being right.

Sure, wide swatch of 45". Why not. WHY NOT GEORGE.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

However this storm turns out, I’ll need a break after this. What a brutal few days. 

Me too.

Relax on Sunday then start worrying about what the MJO will do to me.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Recon won't help with the dual low issue. That is from mesoscale convective processes. 

Is this really something that's 50/50? The elongated crap? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Is this really something that's 50/50? The elongated crap? 

It is a real issue to resolve.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Columbia Ct the capital center of EOR Ct

and this is what?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You hit that one out of the park!!

It was hanging there like a Rod Beck floater.

[FSUIZZY]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

I think this guy has the right idea. 

 

Honestly, this guy is very knowledgeable when it comes to breaking down forecasts and models. I follow him on twitter. He puts out great videos and breakdowns on weather systems. BUT with that being said he took a leap of faith with those numbers. At least he is going to adjust them. 

[JC-CT]

16.6/1.1 isn't 16.6, btw

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Sure, wide swatch of 45". Why not. WHY NOT GEORGE.

As long as it's not Super Bowl Sunday because George will be Los Angeles watching the Pats win their 7th SB title...

[mattm4242]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

My forecast is this map, but add half a foot to these totals.

Way to lean into it.

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is really turning into an intolerable situation for the MA offices, up through NYC ...  This series at 12z basically removed them from even winter storm warning criteria - arguably .. - yet they were cooked into believing a blizzard was en route.  They have blizzard headlines down there that frankly, don't have a prayer at verifying "IF" this 12z Euro had any say.

And if these are right solutions - the elephant in the room is that the models, et al, could not get this right at 30 hours -

although, does the GFS re-enter the discussion there? I dunno - might be right for the wrong reasons in that case... separate headache. 

Yeah.  You can't blame them.  If this does end up going sideways, then someone needs to figure out how we can get these models to be more in the ballpark on this type of weather event in the future.  Yes, I know "these are tools and you need to know how to use them", but at the same time, I feel confident there's highly trained mets throwing shit in their offices wondering how the hell are they supposed to forecast with so many changes to the data 6-12 hours from when the storm is supposed to start based on location.  I can't begin to imagine the amount of data that I don't have access to that there is to analyze when this is your trained profession and job to do.

This isn't me melting - I think modeling is fascinating, and it's always interesting to me when they take a dump, especially very close in to an event.  This is probably why NWS has been trying to be conservative with forecasts while we have been following along here.

[Hoth]

What is the deal with these dual lows this year? I don’t remember this being so frequent an issue in years past,  but maybe I just wasn’t paying attention.