Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It is?

Maybe not at this lead time.  But from yesterday to today, that’s pretty sizeable but you are totally right.  It’s probably not that big a deal at this time frame.  It’s not like 36 hours out.

18z

06z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m fully expecting rain here with these recent runs 

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Maybe not at this lead time.  But from yesterday to today, that’s pretty sizeable but you are totally right.  It’s probably not that big a deal at this time frame.  It’s not like 36 hours out.

Yeah, qpf increasing each run is expected with ensemble means this far out because its slowly dropping off members that are way off the grid, plus just that it's still 5 away days. I thought the 0z mean didnt look bad either. There are more west members at 6z though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's going to gaslight a few posters as well ha ha.

TBlizz just ran off the road. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Crazy how the EURO went from relatively not interested to OP blizzard and massive ENS jump in one run. That western envelope is getting close, however, still gettin great feels for this one. It’s on like donkey Kong. JoBu has had his sacrament. 

[Heisy]

This wave has huge importance to this storm (don't hate my photo editing skills). The 6z eps/euro/control actually pushed the main wave farther west towards four corners, but this second shortwave drops down and helps ignite everything. The control is an example of what could go wrong with a late phase. It still is a decent run verbatim.

 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Next frame plz

 

[Heisy]

Worcester winning

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m fully expecting rain here with these recent runs 

Best way to keep your sanity this week.

[ORH_wxman]

[JC-CT]

I'm naming this storm Jimmy Garoppolo

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

If we are being honest with ourselves and said, if we were model developers, what would we want an ensemble mean to look like at 132 hours for a storm that verifies over or just inside the benchmark...that has to be pretty close to it.

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lmfao. Land the damn plane already! That is insane all the sub 970mb lows on the mean. Hell, there's even some sub 960mbs scattered all over the place. KU 'potential' with this one for sure 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Lmfao. Land the damn plane already! That is insane all the sub 970mb lows on the mean. Hell, there's even some sub 960mbs scattered all over the place. KU 'potential' with this one for sure 

I'm fine with it going over my head, if it's going to be a sub 950 low.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

If we are being honest with ourselves and said, if we were model developers, what would we want an ensemble mean to look like at 132 hours for a storm that verifies over or just inside the benchmark...that has to be pretty close to it.

Yeah it's pretty nice.....but if I was being perfect, for a storm this deep and this sharply stem-winding at 5+ days out, I'd want to see it a little east with fewer western inland runners. There's a clear skew west there.

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm naming this storm Jimmy Garoppolo

Dude is like 37-16; I’ll take it!

[Damage In Tolland]

And there’s your worry post Runaway. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's pretty nice.....but if I was being perfect, for a storm this deep and this sharply stem-winding at 5+ days out, I'd want to see it a little east with fewer western inland runners. There's a clear skew west there.

If you were a model developer, you would want the model to account for that bias. Please let me live in my fantasy world where perfect is good.

[Torch Tiger]

Love these inside tracks...hope these trends continue!

[Damage In Tolland]

I’ve seen posts about day 5 +. Snow breaks out Friday afternoon. So actually about 4-4.5 days 

[CoastalWx]

If it’s going to hug, get me that 949 member from yesterday so i can be in the eyewall. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And there’s your worry post Runaway. 

Yup. He is concerned for the EOR crowd.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If it’s going to hug, get me that 949 member from yesterday so i can be in the eyewall. 

 

[dryslot]

I would have much preferred to see some of these solutions a couple of days later then this but it is what it is.

[mahk_webstah]

9 hours ago, Heisy said:

Cmc actually might bring low close or over Boston this run, tough to tell exact position with these maps

I love the S isotherm

[mahk_webstah]

9 hours ago, dryslot said:

0z Ukie is 955mb in the GOM.

is that the 3rd model or the 4th that has shown sub 970 in the op?

[tim123]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I love the S isotherm

Looks like central new england

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would have much preferred to see some of these solutions a couple of days later then this but it is what it is.

It’ll end up going back east a little. This seems to always happen. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Beware the southern streamers.

[mahk_webstah]

8 hours ago, dryslot said:

looks like the timing might be slowly shifting to Saturday day and night through Sunday morn instead of Friday night into Saturday?  Stronger = slower?