Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[IowaStorm05]

My best friend is suddenly the 3km

[PhineasC]

Oh dear, RGEM looks rather lame. Solid east shift for everyone. Most of E MA doesn't even crack a foot. LOL 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Oh dear, RGEM looks rather lame. Solid east shift for everyone. Most of E MA doesn't even crack a foot. LOL 

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

already out of date. OKX has them issued for LI/SE CT, so they should be at zero now too

Yeah I refreshed and it wasn't in the system yet. lol

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

The rest of Connecticut probably won't meet the wind criteria.

Im not so sure about that. We need 35 mph for 3 hours ( amd we will have all the other criteria met )... Its possible ( although, even if we don't, it will still look like a Blizzard ). All good either way. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... this run of the NAM does little to motivate me - personally..

I mean I've seen this kind of antic from the NAM < 48 hours, where it tosses a turd cycle into the punch-bowl, only to correct a cycle or two later. 

This run appears to be just a 'slightly' unraveling of the 06z ...and immediately, we see a ... I dunno 20% reduction in the 'awe' top side.  In a philosophy that's fine, because the previous solutions were sorta kinda 'off the reservation' relative to climo to an uncomfortable extent.  That said, the "upside" aspect of this is still there - so we can't let guard down as to how much this could come back...  Side, RGEM...GGEM and Euro ... 

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS came in with a 30-bomb clear to HFD - haha

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

Is 10:1 ratio appropriate for this event tho?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

 

Is 10:1 ratio appropriate for this event tho?

No

[dendrite]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

 

Is 10:1 ratio appropriate for this event tho?

Who cares? That run was terrible.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Oh dear, RGEM looks rather lame. Solid east shift for everyone. Most of E MA doesn't even crack a foot. LOL 

Reggie looked awful lol . Was sort of comical 

[CoastalWx]

LOL, woof to that.

[TalcottWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything is on track . It changes nothing lol

Correct - people are being HUGE CLOWNS. 

[DomNH]

Just now, dendrite said:

Who cares? That run was terrible.

Lol yeah forget ratios. That verifies and weenies are swan diving off the Tobin. 

[EastonSN+]

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can't believe all the western peeps are worrying over the RGEM/NAM when it still gives E MA 2 feet.

Shit, no more 30 burger?

(Ducks and runs)

[CT Rain]

The Reggie looks like ass.

[weatherwiz]

If that verifies I will go the entire summer without making a severe weather thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... this run of the NAM does little to motivate me - personally..

I mean I've seen this kind of antic from the NAM < 48 hours, where it tosses a turd cycle into the punch-bowl, only to correct a cycle or two later. 

This run appears to be just a 'slightly' unraveling of the 06z ...and immediately, we see a ... I dunno 20% reduction in the 'awe' top side.  In a philosophy that's fine, because the previous solutions were sorta kinda 'off the reservation' relative to climo to an uncomfortable extent.  That said, the "upside" aspect of this is still there - so we can't let guard down as to how much this could come back...  Side, RGEM...GGEM and Euro ... 

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS came in with a 30-bomb clear to HFD - haha

 

[Professional Lurker]

My friend just sold his childhood collection of Kiss memorabilia for $6000!

OT, but I had a friend who collected custom guitars. Had a Gene Simmons are bass, #2/250. Gene had #1, obviously. There were cork pegs in the body. We removed one and there was a handwritten note. Kinda cool.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

[ROOSTA]

DO NOT POST SNOW MAPS THAT DON'T HAVE 3 FEET AMOUNTS.
Forum moral is dependent on nothing less.  

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I can't believe all the western peeps are worrying over the RGEM/NAM when it still gives E MA 2 feet.

It does?

[TalcottWx]

Rgem hasn't hit on a storm in 7 years. 

Seven. Years. 

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we are just obsessing over the trees in the midst of a historically expansive forest-

Yes, very much so. I don't really think this double, or elongated low is a real thing. Probably more the models dealing with the phase. I feel we've seen this before and in the end it was one cohesive LP

[mattb65]

This sounding for E MA from the 3k NAM during the height of the storm is nuts. DGZ from the surface to 500 mb.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If that verifies I will go the entire summer without making a severe weather thread

Don't threaten us with a good time...

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I think we're all in agreement that naming winter storms is a stupid practice...but I can't help but notice Ch3 in CT has gone with the name 'Bobby'. I can't think of a more underwhelming name for a storm of this magnitude. Cringeworthy.

We mused last night ... maybe "James" would be better -

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, mattb65 said:

This sounding for E MA from the 3k NAM during the height of the storm is nuts. DGZ from the surface to 500 mb.

Now post the RGEM sounding same time. LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just looking at 12z NAM more closely...that is 12-18" from ORH county points east....6-12" WOR.

Def. not that same type of storm at all....anywhere.

[bristolri_wx]

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Rgem hasn't hit on a storm in 7 years. 

Seven. Years. 

it's basically the ggem, so yeah