Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Fuji dance.

In my face.

[PhineasC]

Looks to end up basically the same here. 6-10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

That's true. My location is not Methuen, MA.

I wish I could be every bit the philanthropic, meteorological martyr that you are and Robin hood my snow to everyone else's BY, but 'alas.....

[Chrisrotary12]

It's so odd. It's like "hey my warm conveyer belt is so strong that I'm going to deepen a low to the same pressure as the parent low. Then when we get to 40 N the parent low is like "where you going? Get back here. and captures the second low."

[tiger_deF]

We should really have a nowcast thread so we can observe the development of the low and any possible signs of two lows developing

[Damage In Tolland]

No difference really in end 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

We should really have a nowcast thread so we can observe the development of the low and any possible signs of two lows developing

I think the OBS thread is for that, too

[DomNH]

That right there is why I wouldn't be comfortable completely chucking them. There is a scenario where this has a 12-15'' floor. 

[jbenedet]

Having much more of that DC to Boston snowstorm look now.

[dryslot]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

We should really have a nowcast thread so we can observe the development of the low and any possible signs of two lows developing

That's what this one is now, Obs thread already going.

[weatherwiz]

I like the slight tick east...was getting worried I might have to push totals more west in CT and really worry about subsidence

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z NAM croaks here.

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I like the slight tick east...was getting worried I might have to push totals more west in CT and really worry about subsidence

Me too.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No difference really in end 

Lopped like 40% off your QPF 

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

That right there is why I wouldn't be comfortable completely chucking them. There is a scenario where this has a 12-15'' floor. 

Upstream/downstream

Floor/ceiling

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I like the slight tick east...was getting worried I might have to push totals more west in CT and really worry about subsidence

Phew, well I'm sure everyone feels better about missing an historic snowstorm knowing that at least you don't need to make a new map.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's so odd. It's like "hey my warm conveyer belt is so strong that I'm going to deepen a low to the same pressure as the parent low. Then when we get to 40 N the parent low is like "where you going? Get back here. and captures the second low."

Ya' if just looking at surface analysis it almost looks like it jumps S at hour 30.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

All this run does is comfort ema from slotting while keeping those on the edge, on edge. 

[JC-CT]

3km is close to 18z, a little less than 0z...but the last few runs, has been more consistent than the 12km

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Everyone living and dying by the NAM lol.

[DomNH]

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

Upstream/downstream

Floor/ceiling

Without any weird meso low crap this probably has an 18'' floor for most of SNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I like the slight tick east...was getting worried I might have to push totals more west in CT and really worry about subsidence

That wouldn't be a worry at all. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

NAM looks like it snows longer in the Berkshires than Central MA.   Dry slot?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's so odd. It's like "hey my warm conveyer belt is so strong that I'm going to deepen a low to the same pressure as the parent low. Then when we get to 40 N the parent low is like "where you going? Get back here. and captures the second low."

Yea I mean the biggest impact is that we shed some of the rapid deepening early on —after hr 15 or so. Positive feedback is slowed, and therefore the H5 occlusion slows. It’s odd. Early on shows the trough going negative sooner, but then stymied by the “tropical low” wanting to kick east—misaligning the deepening and surface pressure falls.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Me too.

Sort of seems like this double barrel thing is helping us a little up here. Or it's at least not as bad for us as down south.

[dendrite]

yeah was afraid of that

[CoastalWx]

Much quicker event too. 

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.

Not an expert on the duel low scenario, but given the incredible potency of the upper levels (500 especially) I'm not sure a duel structure can last long before the surface structure gets consumed / consolidated into one very intense low???  I'm open to being schooled here, but how can a duel structure last under this upper air configuration.  As 40/70 inquired, do you have any good historic similarities?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I mean the biggest impact is that we shed some of the rapid deepening early on —after hr 15 or so. Positive feedback is slowed, and therefore the H5 occlusion slows. It’s odd. Early on shows the trough going negative sooner, but then stymied by the “tropical low” wanting to kick east—misaligning the deepening and surface pressure falls.

I don't think we will know exactly how those meso nuances of the cyclogenesis will evolve until they happen.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NAM looks like it snows longer in the Berkshires than Central MA.   Dry slot?

It has a rotting outer band long after the storm is occluding