Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/28/2022 at 1:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure how I would benefit from the dual low delaying the capture up the coast.

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You would as long as the capture wasn't too far NE...like say it was captured just east if ACK/CHH instead of south of BID....then that would help you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, is the a precedent from a high-end event exhibiting that dual low phenomenon?

[WxFreak11]

  On 1/28/2022 at 1:50 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The fun part is this storm will have small surprises right to the end.  This winter has been so bad I'm content with any decent snowfall at this point, jackpots are of no concern.

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Good post. Remember a few weeks ago when we were happy with possibly getting 3 or 4 inches of snow? Just something to make it look like winter? We’re getting that tomorrow plus some. I’m just grateful for that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 1:58 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You would as long as the capture wasn't too far NE...like say it was captured just east if ACK/CHH instead of south of BID....then that would help you.

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I am talking about further up toward NH sea coast

[dryslot]

Precip field getting stretched NE a bit on the Nam as its chasing the low offshore.

[TalcottWx]

There is going to be so much post storm analysis... 

[PhineasC]

Double barrels means double the firepower, right?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am talking about further up toward NH sea coast

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If it waits until gulf of maine, then yeah, that would limit the amounts in SNE to merely exceptional instead of "Record threatening"

[CT Valley Dryslot]

My mind is in nowcast mode.

The low is forming down south. I don't really feel compelled to hype about what the models show and more curious to see what comes our way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:01 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If it waits until gulf of maine, then yeah, that would limit the amounts in SNE to merely exceptional instead of "Record threatening"

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Yea, that is what I mean.

[TalcottWx]

OBS THREAD FOR LATER

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56711-obsdisco-the-historic-james-blizzard-of-2022/

[JC-CT]

I've never seen so much uncertainty with a storm. Will Methuen, MA get 20? Will Methuen, MA get 33? Will Methuen, MA get 13? Will subsidence set up over Methuen, MA? Will Methuen, MA be in the deformation band? If so, for how long? What direction will the winds be in Methuen, MA? What will the ratios be in Methuen, MA?

Just insanity from a forecasting perspective.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that is a change form 6z.

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:01 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

My mind is in nowcast mode.

The low is forming down south. I don't really feel compelled to hype about what the models show and more curious to see what comes our way.

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Feel compelled.

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that is a change form 6z.

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And not a good one.

[Chrisrotary12]

12z NAM is going to be a let down.

[CoastalWx]

Man H5 looks great. I dunno....I feel like the low should concentrate near the vort max or at least the other low should have a shorter life span.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:02 PM, JC-CT said:

I've never seen so much uncertainty with a storm. Will in Methuen, MA get 20? Will in Methuen, MA get 33? Will in Methuen, MA get 13? Will subsidence set up over in Methuen, MA? Will Methuen, MA in the deformation band? If so, for how long? What direction will the winds be in Methuen, MA? What will the ratios be in in Methuen, MA?

Just insanity from a forecasting perspective.

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Frustration and anxiety creeping into WOR posts.

Good sign.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Frustration and anxiety creeping into WOR posts.

Good sign.

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LOL you think i'm WOR?

[MaineJayhawk]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:02 PM, JC-CT said:

I've never seen so much uncertainty with a storm. Will in Methuen, MA get 20? Will in Methuen, MA get 33? Will in Methuen, MA get 13? Will subsidence set up over in Methuen, MA? Will Methuen, MA in the deformation band? If so, for how long? What direction will the winds be in Methuen, MA? What will the ratios be in in Methuen, MA?

Just insanity from a forecasting perspective.

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What's Will doing in Methuen?

 

[hooralph]

West trend stopped. This won't be nearly as good for NYC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:04 PM, JC-CT said:

LOL you think i'm WOR?

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IDC, frankly

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:04 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

What's Will doing in Methuen?

 

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i fixed

[CoastalWx]

Fuji dance.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/28/2022 at 2:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDC, frankly

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That's true. My location is not Methuen, MA.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/28/2022 at 10:11 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Love this tweet from Kevin W

 

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May seem "bunny" of him, but I sat nonplussed at what I was seeing last night.. And now the 06z Euro and 06Z NAM, if anything ... upped matters.

It is as though the models are trying to realize, in the short term, the higher than normal 'upside' that's been a part of this thematic arc the whole way. We've been saying that this thing had room to become a juggernaut.
 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.

[TalcottWx]

I'm surprised so many fell for day prior model burp

[Chrisrotary12]

Those 2 lows are about to fuji southeast of the islands.

[JB_Wchstr]

All of a sudden there’s two lows. What BS lol.