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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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drstuess

drstuess

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Sounds frigid

We can find some shelter from N/NNE winds down here.  Interesting and you can really see the impact on the solutions of the dual lows and the west vs eats track, Wavewatch3 ( off of the GFS) has practically has no swell ( < 2@10 SE), while Euro derived modeling is ~ 5@11

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Northof78

Northof78

Posted
Posted
On 1/22/2022 at 10:02 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a long lead heads up for a potentially strong cyclone over the eastern U.S./ .. western Atlantic, only.  That said ...it has enough presentation in the various model clusters, and persistence too, to initiate the focus. Though we are far from a deterministic forecast, this system hm has some risk upside.

Short list of notables:

-- this potential begins 7.5 days away for N GA, and perhaps exits Maine D8.5/9.   , ... It's not impossible that this system slows down ( more blw), such that it's into the 31st over the NNE/ME.  It is also potentially a larger system size. By virtue of that alone it may take more than a two periods to completely finish a location.

-- as that suggests, this may impact multiple regions from the interior SE U.S. and up along the I-95 megalopolis to SNE, NH and ME. This is a fluid interpretation/subject to change.  But when we get into multi-region, multi-faceted systems, even a moderate storm aggregates a major problem.

-- may want to check tides/ lunar, as this system may be ISE loaded and should it slow down... it may protract across more than a singe tide cycle. This type of storm, we have no observed in recent years. Unlike last January, when the super synoptic manifold entered a slowing of progression, with relaxing gradient, but no embedded mechanics, this appears attempting to do so.

Concepts:

We've been monitoring this for a week now, and thus it has established history.  Sometimes important events show up at longer leads ... and keep re-appearing - I've been wondering if we're living that.  That would be true if it hits a backyard or not...  Slowly the various ENS means have become more ominously suggestive.   The most recent runs of the GEFs and GEPs ( 18z and 12z respectively..) were still continuing along favorable trends, well established spanning multi cycles. 

image.png.6a9d32a0d7f80c0ae8f850a7970d8cb7.png

The sense here is higher than model-climate odds for a significant system. Where it tracks, I have a couple concerns

-- I am noticing the sensitivity is very related to the progressive, vs slowing ( timing this latter arrival) of the flow character.  Whenever a guidance cycle has reverted back to conserving the progressive character more so, we end up with runs more so ... like the 12z GFS and Euro.  When the subtle pattern change to slow progressivity is apparently directing a give model cycle, we get are bells wrung like the 18z GFS...  Not sure at the moment which way that will go...   I am also noticing there the flow structures over SE Canada having effects on model runs, but that may be related to those same aspects.  This about 50/50 right now. If progressivity persists, this ends up east. If this leitmotif in the ens systems to slow takes place, it would be west because N/S meridian tendencies are increasing, and the system ends up farther W.   My haunch is that the slow idea is real... how much?  It could be damned in between! ugh...  But, if we look upstream, there is an emerging -WPO/-EPO out there D6-10.  That is blocking ...native to that tendency, progressivity tends to slow, and the meridian aspect manifests.   So that's were I lean presently.. We'll see

-- Plus, there is also the S/W mechanics them selves... If there is more N/stream insert, we may see a subsume phase... vs less, like this 18z run.  18z is a purer Miller A.  Should the this slow down and trend Miller B, this is a bright signal and that would likely manifest with equal prominence to put it lightly.  But much of this is also indirectly related to above, as those are larger waves creating constructive vs destructive interference nesting. 

-- The other aspect ...which is highly experimental.. I've been noticing that the last two significant systems we've covered had a tendency to be too far E in ens means, at this range... and eventually, clusters conceded to the higher resolution/physically tested operational version.

 

Impressive thread/threat start! Congrats

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All Wet

All Wet

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Already ahead of you

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e476p2mx85518pv3k5pnc

On the subject of supermarket reports, my wife was at a Hannaford's in the Portland area and had 40 carts in front of her and a dozen behind on Thursday.   Nobody in line could figure out why everyone decided they had to do their shopping at that particular moment...

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To me looking at NAM and EURO I see this wrt banding only. 

20130209_accum.thumb.gif.e93c922d30f049140de25ea909fae504.gif

It's amazing looking at this map how similar Nemo is looking to the name and Euro outputs. This is going to be fun. The only difference I do see is that the snow will extend down to New Jersey and Delaware more and bump back into Pennsylvania

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walthsnow

walthsnow

Posted
Posted

Really appreciate all of the top-notch discussion in here. This place rocks!

Question about this storm. Is this as top tier as a Miller A can get? Are Miller B's more likely to bring prodigious snow amounts? In the historical record for this area, do Miller A's or B's bring bigger snow totals?

 

Appreciate the perspective and best of luck to all for this storm!

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