Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Why you making fun of shepherds pie

I’m more of a cottage pie guy myself. 
 

Ocean effect already taking shape offshore. I recall a lot of the big ones started this way. Savor every moment of this. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

H7 placement is great for out here.

I'm upping MBY to 12-16"        My work area is prob more like 14-20" (KFIT, Leominster)

going all in on the GFS, bold

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

A little east up this way, but I can't see the upper level features on 6z yet...replying on COD to update. I'll take others' word on it that H7 looks similar.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Enjoy brother

I’m as excited as you get when you clamp the cuffs on a prostitution sting 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh you’re in now? Lmao. 

Put the fangs away and put the paws up…high five.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

A little east up this way, but I can't see the upper level features on 6z yet...replying on COD to update. I'll take others' word on it that H7 looks similar.

What would you like to see?

[jbenedet]

As I mentioned many days ago that warm core/sub tropical structure on guidance is causing chaos (additional uncertainty) in the phasing and resolving the best area for surface pressure falls. More tropical-like it is, the later the H5 capture.

Outside of the SE coast, SST’s are not supportive of a tropical system. Period. So the system will quickly gravitate towards baroclinicity. The question remains how fast? I’d hedge sooner vs later given the temps over the northern Gulf Stream are closer to 70F vs low 80’s during tropical season. Conversely if this was late November I’d be hedging the other way.

I do think the hook back scenario is likely and it will be more pronounced the longer it takes the tropical component to shake its “warm-core” predominance. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I've got young kids and I'm irrationally angry that someone is intentionally living a lifestyle that I'm forced into against my will.

I do not like being tired. I function so well on 7-8 hours of sleep. Less than that and it’s heavy , sleepy eyes . No thanks 

[Ginx snewx]

Crushed. Bufkit gives me 32 on 6z Euro 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

8:50? Lol. How was the Shepherds Pie for dinner? Nasty game of bridge after?

Are you working on your snow map for the region? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

going all in on the GFS, bold

Better than the BOX forecast of 6-11" out here, lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Crushed. Bufkit gives me 32 on 6z Euro 

Lol... pretty much as I thought for MBY 

[CoastalWx]

Between models and my daughter getting up, we tired.

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I do not being tired. I function so well on 7-8 hours of sleep. Less than that and it’s heavy , sleepy eyes . No thanks 

Fully agreed there. It's the hours before 9am I've never really cared for.

[CoastalWx]

Just looking at guidance, this wonderful Korn riff came on. Just play this and get violent as you examine guidance.

 

 

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Crushed. Bufkit gives me 32 on 6z Euro 

 

That is amazing with 10:1 ratio 
Change the algorithm to 15 or 20:1 to what most believe will occur.
Jaw dropping. A Top3 in the making! 

[Lava Rock]

06z Euro is a tic or so west

Somewhat of a sharp cutoff between us

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[CoastalWx]

I mean does that song not make you want to pick up Volkswagens and throw them?

[DavisStraight]

Noyes has 2-3 feet Eastern section and 18-24 Worcester down to Kevin.

[NeonPeon]

The drifts are going to be epic.

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Better than the BOX forecast of 6-11" out here, lol

Yeah it's probably safe to go 15" for you right now. I always like your spot

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Somewhat of a sharp cutoff between us

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

If your in greenville.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Between models and my daughter getting up, we tired.

I find it funny you have 500,000 posts, but every storm we ask you to list out regionwide snowfall amounts.. you mysteriously don’t respond 

[weatherwiz]

Locked and loaded ready to go. Hopefully we can take totals up even more  

[Lava Rock]

If your in greenville.

I meant between lew and raymond

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[DavisStraight]

They keep showing people on Plum Island preparing their homes, going to be epic out there.

[msg112469]

6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

The take away from that map is that nobody in E MA is likely getting 40" and nobody in E NY is likely getting 10"  Overdone in both cases.  Sell.

Maybe. I'd just sit back, watch and admire what's about to happen. Enjoy

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east. 

Taking in to account all of the various guidance; I thought the 00z Euro run seemed very logical from a meteorological perspective. We've seen countless times in the past that its tough to slow down a freight train and that the capture and "stall" typically occurs a little north of where expected. i.e. not south of MVY like the NAM, but east of the Cape like the Euro.

If one were to take the Euro 10:1 snowfall map and increase it by 20-30% across eastern and western areas. And by 40-50% in the central areas where one thinks the death band sets up. That would be a reasonable forecast. Basically 20"+ in the east and central. 10-20 in central-west and dropping off from there.

[JC-CT]

The mesos lows does kind of suck but it is what it is.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

The Euro and the NAM seem to be on their own with the heavy precip and westward extent. Some of the other hi-res models aren’t as bullish for central and western New England. Wish this felt like a slam dunk for everyone but waking up still feel like there’s still some details to sort out today that will affect this board. Only consensus is for 12” or more east of 95/495… that’s about it and we are 18 hours from go… weird…

Ignore the Euro? Been rock solid and lead horse. Save a horse ....