Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Any weenie in central CT that has a problem with that run needs professional help. 

Without looking, it probably Jack's from like Kev, to ORH to ASH, MHT

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Fair. It's a nasty gradient. 

still looks like a decent snow, but I'd like this to tick west a bit more for our west friends.  Even if we risk slotting over ENE

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Arguably the best run yet for us.

Definitely is, and from the best guidance

We're in a great spot Jerry

0z NAM showing its usual spasticity

Harvey's confidence was great to see

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, MarkO said:

congrats Ray

 

The take away from that map is that nobody in E MA is likely getting 40" and nobody in E NY is likely getting 10"  Overdone in both cases.  Sell.

[ice1972]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Any weenie in central CT that has a problem with that run needs professional help. 

I do

[IowaStorm05]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

still looks like a decent snow, but I'd like this to tick west a bit more for our west friends.  Even if we risk slotting over ENE

Hah my guess there are a few folks on here who don't agree with you.

[ice1972]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Without looking, it probably Jack's from like Kev, to ORH to ASH, MHT

why is kev always the southwest boundary of jacks......

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ice1972 said:

why is kev always the southwest boundary of jacks......

Because lord weather hates you

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea. I don't need to jack....just keep that nasty slot away

Exactly how I feel. The 0z NAM (and continuing that trend) was not completely unrealistic, so glad Euro held.

[MarkO]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

There are a few folks on here who don't agree with you.

agreed, you wash that dirty little mouth out with soap!

[MuddyWx]

3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

6 miles east? Bakers Island?

my bad, more like 4 miles. just inside of 128 in E beverly

[HIPPYVALLEY]

My goodnight prediction is that tomorrow's  model runs will still have surprises and inevitably, there will be some unhappy weenies somewhere.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

The take away from that map is that nobody in E MA is likely getting 40" and nobody in E NY is likely getting 10"  Overdone in both cases.  Sell.

I guess you're not getting a foot either.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Without looking, it probably Jack's from like Kev, to ORH to ASH, MHT

Agree. I'm fine with that. That has been consistent in my mind, even with the wild NAM run. 

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

still looks like a decent snow, but I'd like this to tick west a bit more for our west friends.  Even if we risk slotting over ENE

A tick west helps me, but I'd rather they underperform (but get something) than see the E Mass zone dryslot. That'd be painful to watch. 

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

I do

I honest to god don't know how, but you also said winter would be over in 6 weeks in like mid December  

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

I do

Not sure I agree. It didn’t tick east at all and it gives our area 1.4-1.6 qpf. Also the area that the models show as the “jackpot” almost never do. I could easily see the banding in reality being a little west from what the EURO depicted. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Exactly how I feel. The 0z NAM (and continuing that trend) was not completely unrealistic, so glad Euro held.

No it wasn't/isn't...that's why I lost it.  Leading up to a storm like this, I legit just stare at data non stop...probably more than most pros...especially now w wife and kids away. I get tired and irritable

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I guess you're not getting a foot either.

I never expected that.  6-10" in Greenfield if this breaks right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Not sure I agree. It didn’t tick east at all and it gives our area 1.4-1.6 qpf. Also the area that the models show as the “jackpot” almost never do. I could easily see the banding in reality being a little west from what the EURO depicted. 

Agree

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

The take away from that map is that nobody in E MA is likely getting 40" and nobody in E NY is likely getting 10"  Overdone in both cases.  Sell.

kuchie-KU the KU simulator, algorithm can turn a basic clipper into a 12-24"er 

[MarkO]

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

my bad, more like 4 miles. just inside of 128 in E beverly

Grew up in Peabody. You're in a great spot. Enjoy!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

kuchie-KU the KU simulator, algorithm can turn a basic clipper into a 12-24"er 

Kuchie is a good proxy for ceiling in isolated areas in some of these bands. 40"+ somewhere would not shock me one bit

[George001]

euro gives me over 40 inches of snow, it somehow improved from 18z!

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Kuchera adds 3 or 6 hour ratio snows, IIRC, so 40 inches plus of fluff packs down, to what, 2 1/2 feet?

 

Is there a doctoral candidate somewhere developing an Enhanced Kuchera storm total model that accounts for compaction?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kuchie is a good proxy for ceiling in isolated areas in some of these bands. 40"+ somewhere would not shock me one bit

Speaking of ratios, do you have the narcan map?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kuchie is a good proxy for ceiling in isolated areas in some of these bands. 40"+ somewhere would not shock me one bit

Even with 3" qpf it's tough because you need ideal snow growth for hours.   The winds will have a say in that. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it wasn't/isn't...that's why I lost it.  Leading up to a storm like this, I legit just stare at data non stop...probably more than most pros...especially now w wife and kids away. I get tired and irritable

same my brain hurts. between photoshop and models ive had enough for today.

[bobbutts]

This thing has my interest now.

[MarkO]

Posting the Kuchie, 495 belt will get screwed. Shame on me

[78Blizzard]

[MJO812]

I'm jealous