Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look east what the heck lol

Too close for missiles, switching to guns.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look east what the heck lol

Yawn

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs will still be correcting as the storm begins

Correct - it literally catches on the last run before nowcast

[UnitedWx]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

New call. Big jump at 11!

As someone would say if he wasn't sleeping off beers...you can always adjust up tomorrow 

[Swiscaster]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look east what the heck lol

Wouldn’t really be focused on GFS ensembles at this juncture.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Swiscaster said:

Wouldn’t really be focused on GFS ensembles at this juncture.

Yeah agree

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it does. Toss dual low.

Does it even make sense for their to be a dual low when it’s trying to crank down in the 960s?

[Snowguy66]

Do we know if the air flight data got into the NAM earlier?  That is my only concern really at this point.  If the name did not get the new data and the GFS did I would still be concerned.  If it did than I expected GFS to yes slowly cave with each run which I have previously stated.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

54 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Really wish I had booked a flight for tonight on Tuesday. Can't wait to live vicariously through you guys.

I flew SWA (HOU to) FLL to ISP in 2015 for my Aunt Marguerite's funeral in Bay Shore.  I was first group, offered a cute Shinnecock (I though she was Hispanic) woman a free drink to sit by me, not because I was perving, because I am fat and she was tiny, and it was Southwest), anyway, ISP is walking distance to hotels (trust me), models look close to 2 feet, who flies from FLL to ISP?  Except that flight was full, but go tomorrow morning and get a room.  Shinnecock are Native Americans,  I knew of Shinnecock Inlet and 1938, no idea a nation was there.

 

She had a small bottle of Kahlua.  She was cute, but I was, and am, married.

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Harv didn't flinch with the 0z NAM

24+ all of eastern Mass

Kept the same map but he mentioned 24 could go to Worcester

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Too close for missiles, switching to guns.

it was at hr30 but many go due north after that  much better

[weathafella]

Just now, Snowguy66 said:

Do we know if the air flight data got into the NAM earlier?  That is my only concern really at this point.  If the name did not get the new data and the GFS did I would still be concerned.  If it did than I expected GFS to yes slowly cave with each run which I have previously stated.

Isn’t it all or none? 

[CT Rain]

Big QPF jump on the GFS ensembles from 18z to 00z. Sort of time to toss them since they've been trash. 

[PhineasC]

I am ready for the upside down maps and "CMC/ukie went east" posts.

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Harv didn't flinch with the 0z NAM

24+ all of eastern Mass

I saw that. He's not putting everything into the NAM. He's looking at the whole model suite.

[IowaStorm05]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look east what the heck lol

That’s probably good because it offers a hint of stability and ever so slight reduction in risk of runaway west trend, given what others have said.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s probably good because it offers a hint of stability and ever so slight reduction in risk of runaway west trend, given what others have said.

they end up west after hr 30

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

That’s probably good because it offers a hint of stability and ever so slight reduction in risk of runaway west trend, given what others have said.

I don’t think it means anything tbh. 

[George001]

I wonder if even the kuchera maps are underestimating the snow ratios with this storm like they did with the early Jan nor’easter. If areas in the heaviest banding end up with like 20:1 ratios, we might see someone get over 50 inches.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian looks like near BM and then just East of north near 70W? 
 

Maybe more NE.

[jcwxguy]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I wonder if even the kuchera maps are underestimating the snow ratios with this storm like they did with the early Jan nor’easter. If areas in the heaviest banding end up with like 20:1 ratios, we might see someone get over 50 inches.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian looks like near BM and then just East of north near 70W? 
 

Maybe more NE.

That too looked improved at h5.

[CoastalWx]

Harvey fired up. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That too looked improved at h5.

Game on. 

[CT Rain]

We chucked on TV. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Harvey fired up. 

Bumping my dual low question from above.

Does it make sense for there to be a dual low when the pressure wants to drop that fast into the 960s?

[dryslot]

NBC up here showing the recon flight grid on the weather portion of the broadcast.

[IowaStorm05]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

relax

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

We chucked on TV. 

Thundersnow? That'd be cool