Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

Anyone have an idea how my area (West Somerville) fared in 2013 and 2015? 

I was in Cambridge then. Damn difficult to measure due to the wind, but solidly north of two feet in both.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dendrite said:

I don't blame you until more guidance comes in. This could be the one zonked NAM12 run.

Yeah, 06z or really 12z is when you could have some confidence for the hinterlands given all the shifting that has occurred. Coastal areas are locking in, IMO.

[skierinvermont]

21 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

JAn 2015!!! DEC 2009

Isolated at best

[JC-CT]

I can't believe this is coming west because there's no blocking so it must be a progressive pattern

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

Davis 

That area did well. I'm not quite sure on exact amounts. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He should preemptively gloat because, full disclosure, once I know that I am porked during the storm, I'll go to bed.

I think we may get one run that jacks NYC, and then tickle back east. I think you'll do fine.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

congrats on winning the NAM

Ya.  If the GFS and especially Euro jump West then I think we reevaluate the jack zones. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I can't believe this is coming west because there's no blocking so it must be a progressive pattern

the lack of blocking can mean both runaway west and east trends

[Chrisrotary12]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

While I'm in the west camp I think we'll end up seeing some slight ticks east in the end

I agree. We might not see it in the modeling, but in reality.

[JC-CT]

Just now, forkyfork said:

the lack of blocking can mean both runaway west and east trends

whichever we are looking to complain about

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He should preemptively gloat because, full disclosure, once I know that I am porked during the storm, I'll go to bed.

BTW, did you put out your next outlook yet?

[weathafella]

I’m riding out right here.   Beautiful setting and I know I’m good for 15+.   If I get skunked in a subby zone oh well.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, what are your thoughts on that NAM solution? Think its too zonked?

I find it very realistic...

Zonked is always a NAM worry. But it has some support from the Euro, which makes it more believable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I think we may get one run that jacks NYC, and then tickle back east. I think you'll do fine.

Well, if it jacks NYC, then I will need more than a tickle....

Hopefully if this is a trend, it goes waaaaay west.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

BTW, did you put out your next outlook yet?

Tomorrow PM, bro.

[George001]

Just now, weathafella said:

I’m riding out right here.   Beautiful setting and I know I’m good for 15+.   If I get skunked in a subby zone oh well.

Yep I like the way this is going. If I get screwed and end up in between the best bands, if the nam is right I would get 20 inches instead of 30+. That’s still a huge storm.

[JC-CT]

i don't know how i feel about rooting for the cape to rain for the James storm just to get 25 instead of 15

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Zonked is always a NAM worry. But it has some support from the Euro, which makes it more believable. 

Exactly. I buy this...maybe the next run is zonked, but this what I always envisioned...deformation from ORH to CTRV. Just frustrating to see it come to pass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

i don't know how i feel about rooting for the cape to rain for the James storm just to get 25 instead of 15

Think of it as inheritance.

[weathafella]

Gfs looks like it’s entering the party asking what did I miss?

[JC-CT]

wow gfs is going to be east

[JC-CT]

just kidding

[dryslot]

0z GFS going to join in this run, Slowly it comes around, Shocked.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m riding out right here.   Beautiful setting and I know I’m good for 15+.   If I get skunked in a subby zone oh well.

Skunked is relative.  I don't think you or I have jackpot fetishes.  Earlier today I said I would be fine as long as I got half a foot of snow, regardless of how much fell east of here.   Am I pleased with the current trend?  Absolutely but I just want a decent snow storm.  Probably more so for my kid and his friends than me. 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

wow gfs is going to be east

Permaban for this lol

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

just kidding

Don't toy with the peeps............lol

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Zonked is always a NAM worry. But it has some support from the Euro, which makes it more believable. 

We saw this with Juno. Zonked to the west near game time then it tickled east. I think we see this end the west shift evening out tonight then it tickles sightly east during game time. 

[dendrite]

Babysteps with the goofus right up until go-time.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs with boobs again.

[eekuasepinniW]

1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

33.1" or I don't want it.

 

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

lol. didn't see that coming.