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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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  On 1/23/2022 at 6:38 AM, wxsniss said:

0z Euro trough digs too little too late, results in a scraper

As much weight as another ensemble member this far out, especially given track record this season

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It's not just any one piece of guidance...there is a general trend in the aggregate to have more of a kicker out west.

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  On 1/23/2022 at 6:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not just any one piece of guidance...there is a general trend in the aggregate to have more of a kicker out west.

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Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.

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  On 1/23/2022 at 6:47 AM, wxsniss said:

Agree, but we've seen trends like this reverse dramatically in shorter lead time. A touch more phase, axis of ridging out west... all very much in flux on guidance and days before we get better clarity.

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Agree. But not what I wanted to see tonight.

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  On 1/23/2022 at 7:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, 00z EPS maybe a hair better.

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OT but I really wish I was looking at models back when that storm was FX it must have really been something to see. I remember the nws, the weather Channel and local news couldn't hype it enough. I remember Paul kocin said it will possibly be the biggest storm in over 50 years possibly 100 (1888). 

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  On 1/23/2022 at 8:54 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

OT but I really wish I was looking at models back when that storm was FX it must have really been something to see. I remember the nws, the weather Channel and local news couldn't hype it enough. I remember Paul kocin said it will possibly be the biggest storm in over 50 years possibly 100 (1888). 

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I remember vividly....I didn't view models back then, but just read AFDs and watched TWC constantly. 

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  On 1/23/2022 at 10:57 AM, Ginx snewx said:

06 GFS is a scraper. This all reminds me of tracking a tropical storm out of the Bahamas.  They always have that lean to the right unless they hug the coast. Everything right now including ENS is too far off the coast but it's extremely close. We track but have flags up.

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Hopefully those reminders include how futile tracking  95% of those tropical systems is. 

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