Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

18z NAM and 18z Euro precip maps look really similar. Totals, distribution... EE rule engaged.

That word triggers me after Jan 15

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Kuchie clown  18Z Euro

The thing about Kuchera is that somebody may pull off 20:1 underneath the main deformation band (which you can clearly see form and pinwheel away from the low center in the loop farther up the thread). So those totals are representative of the max amount SOMEONE may see.

It's obviously too broad an area on this map, but gives you an idea of what the modeling has trended towards today.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I see 964mb  Totals qpf

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Doesn't get much better than that for a solid chunk of the sub forum to be happy.

 

Absolutely… this looks like a historic one.  What a loop. Should be real fun to watch unfold.

[CCHurricane]

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Did the NAM actually nail this one?

Just because you're (*the NAM, not you Phin!) is eventually right, doesn't mean that the last 9 times you were wrong should be ignored. The NAM being referenced outside of 24-48 hours should be banned from this forum.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has been pretty gung ho most of the way…it’s had a few runs where it tried to slide a little east but it never went where so many other models went. It often was all alone too….so I think assuming we’re getting close to a final solution here, the Euro is going to take home a much needed W. 

my man, you spelled JMA wrong.

[RI Rob]

Mashpee or stay in Boston. I keep going back and forth. May be a cooler environment to ride out the storm in the city?

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

makes that push suddenly ne at around 21z.  Still time though.  You never know with a stall, maybe a loop.  Maybe one more decent tick west.

I think there is some ticks west left with this, And i know from 2015 that this ended up a bit north of where it was modeled inside the last 24 hrs so we will see how it goes, This is still a significant storm here and temps will remain single digits low teens throughout, Ratios should be decent  with this.

[mattm4242]

2 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

2000 years ago, there would have been a book added to the bible.

[ROOSTA]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Kuchie clown  18Z Euro

 

With all due respect that is no clown map and quite plausible. Conservative in my estimate. LOL

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has been pretty gung ho most of the way…it’s had a few runs where it tried to slide a little east but it never went where so many other models went. It often was all alone too….so I think assuming we’re getting close to a final solution here, the Euro is going to take home a much needed W. 
 

NAM may have been the first model to show some of the most ridiculous solutions though. But we can’t ignore that 18z whiff yesterday. 

I think down your way the models have seemed much steadier but on the fringes it has been a rollercoaster. This is the biggest Euro run since several days ago when this thing was right up on the coast and giving me 2 feet. Hopefully 00z is rocking and not a rug pull.

[Damage In Tolland]

IPA’s for everyone here. On me!

[EastonSN+]

I feel like Juno is the floor and Nemo is the ceiling for CT.

For me a 7 to 22 spread.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

my man, you spelled JMA wrong.

Lol true…but I kind of equate JMA to the super weenies who call for very storm to be a HECS….the JMA never saw a storm it didn’t like. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Did the NAM actually nail this one?

Euro since 18z yesterday has been locked pretty much

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yesterday’s 18z NAM run is unforgivable 

[Cyclone-68]

The only thing left missing in this storm is space aliens 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel like Juno is the floor and Nemo is the ceiling for CT.

For me a 7 to 22 spread.

I feel like Nemo is the floor and there is no ceiling.

[George001]

It’s funny how we had North Atlantic blocking in December, nothing. Now we have no blocking at all and are getting a massive blizzard anyways. That ridge out west helped us a lot.

[Tiktock]

Oh man.  A mile north of Haverhill here and I keep telling my 39" tall son he needs to pay attention to this storm as he may be an old man before he sees one like this come rolling in!  

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IPA’s for everyone here. On me!

Have a gummie or two!!

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

my man, you spelled JMA wrong.

It’s been a big NE hit since day 1, true.

[tomcatct]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel like Juno is the floor and Nemo is the ceiling for CT.

For me a 7 to 22 spread.

That might go up..

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Euro since 18z yesterday has been locked pretty much

It's been moving steadily NW last 24 hours. Hopefully it has a couple more in it.

[NorEastermass128]

It’s got the feeling before one of our big ones. Like you want to slow down time, bottle up the anticipation and excitement, and savor every moment. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

H7

And on this note...........

[ROOSTA]

From experience, sound advice:  DO NOT CHASE. So extreme it becomes dangerous to be behind the wheel. Get to a location and hole-up. 

[ORH_wxman]

Btw, does someone have the 500 height anomaly correlation scores that show all the major models? I seem to have lost my link for it and a search around the ghastly ncep site (very user-unfriendly) and google has proved useless. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

It’s funny how we had North Atlantic blocking in December, nothing. Now we have no blocking at all and are getting a massive blizzard anyways. That ridge out west helped us a lot.

the pacific ridge is blocking

[CoastalWx]

It’s a widespread dumping. That’s a classic.