Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

What also happens is friction causes an ageostrophic component to the wind. When you have onshore flow the wind inland is turned to the left or cyclonic. That helps to create extra convergence just inland with onshore flow. 

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop it bro. You may have me at 12” if we don’t slide back east but 24+ and now you’re just clowning me. 

Just so you know, in Feb 13 my area was forecast for 10-15” and the same massive amounts that you’re seeing forecasted for Eastern Massachusetts now, we’re being forecasted then.  We ended up with 33” on a 10-15” forecast the day of when it was already snowing. 

 

You don’t know how these monsters are gonna set up the Banding, and where the banding will actually be? Primary band, secondary band etc..we won’t know until it starts happening.  This could be similar..there will be surprises with this. You might want to keep an open mind. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

What’s the most snow recorded at a SNE weather station in a single storm?  Is it the 34” in Worcester during Juno?

for all the hemming and hawing over this storm, I don’t think the historic aspect of potential accumulations is being appreciated.

Total aside: I remember a storm when I was in college where Schwoegler hyped 40-50”.  Was that 2001 or 2002?

Blue Hill actually has the highest for a first order station in SNE with 38.7 in the Feb 1969 storm. 

34.5” at ORH in Jan 2015 is the 2nd highest for a first order station. I think their 33.0” in Apr 1997 is 3rd. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its been on for you for quite a few cycles.

For about 4days now, 4x a day, hit after hit. I know folks worry about that kind of stuff but it’s mostly voodoo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Always want to be just west of those for the goods .. especially with strong ENE winds 

You also need to consider whether or not guidance is far enough west with that feature, which is dubious, but if it is....I am near ground zero there.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the lesser stall element is more of a mitigating impact with respect to coastal flooding than snowfall......once it sits and occludes, that is basically that, anyway.

Yeah. 78 had multiple tidal cycles and it really piled up.  This will be too fast moving

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just so you know, in Feb 13 my area was forecast for 10-15” and the same massive amounts that you’re seeing forecasted for Eastern Massachusetts now, we’re being forecasted then.  We ended up with 33” on a 10-15” forecast the day of when it was already snowing. 

 

You don’t know how these monsters are gonna set up the Banding, and where the banding will actually be? Primary band, secondary band etc..we won’t know until it starts happening.  This could be similar..there will be surprises with this. You might want to keep an open mind. 

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You also need to consider whether or not guidance is far enough west with that feature, which is dubious, but if it is....I am near ground zero there.

Bingo. I think Brian was forecast to get like 4-8" in Dec 2020.....38" later-

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What also happens is friction causes an ageostrophic component to the wind. When you have onshore flow the wind inland is turned to the left or cyclonic. That helps to create extra convergence just inland with onshore flow. 

Great insight!  I know there has to be more happening… that ageostrophic turning likely makes a more pronounced sinking motion just beyond it too, no?  I can imagine that happening in low level lift while a deeper level wave forms over top maybe.  I always try to envision the air flow fluidly to explain maxes and mins and why they end up where they do.  A side effect of living in orographic land.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blue Hill actually has the highest for a first order station in SNE with 38.7 in the Feb 1969 storm. 

34.5” at ORH in Jan 2015 is the 2nd highest for a first order station. I think their 33.0” in Apr 1997 is 3rd. 

What did Blue Hill measure in ‘78.  I feel I should know that

[ineedsnow]

This map will go down in flames 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bottom line that one its go time, these tempest have an irreverent proclivity to just do as they place with blatant disregard for weenie forecasts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

This map will go down in flames 

Wipe with that-

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ekster was the only one who could figure out how that had happened initially . I woke up to 14” that morning and it just kept pounding 

March 2013

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blue Hill actually has the highest for a first order station in SNE with 38.7 in the Feb 1969 storm. 

34.5” at ORH in Jan 2015 is the 2nd highest for a first order station. I think their 33.0” in Apr 1997 is 3rd. 

What was 92 Will, I thought that set the record at that time?

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

March 2013

thanks, I was wondering what the heck he was talking about

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just so you know, in Feb 13 my area was forecast for 10-15” and the same massive amounts that you’re seeing forecasted for Eastern Massachusetts now, we’re being forecasted then.  We ended up with 33” on a 10-15” forecast the day of when it was already snowing. 

 

You don’t know how these monsters are gonna set up the Banding, and where the banding will actually be? Primary band, secondary band etc..we won’t know until it starts happening.  This could be similar..there will be surprises with this. You might want to keep an open mind. 

Right. You have to separate my hobbyist thoughts for a forecast from my weenie thoughts for personal satisfaction though. Does that make sense? Not sure if I explained that properly. Of course, technically, anything is possible so my mind is open and my sweatpants are untied, ready for a quick drop if something magical occurs…but I’m forecasting that when nothing, not even one rogue run, has shown the possibility (yet).

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wipe with that-

ya it was just updated no idea how they got that riding the GFS every move maybe

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. 78 had multiple tidal cycles and it really piled up.  This will be too fast moving

Correct It was a longer in duration storm and had a wider spread 30"+ area. 

[apm]

If this does pan out, we all do owe Corey a huge debt of gratitude...

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What did Blue Hill measure in ‘78.  I feel I should know that

30.1"

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You also need to consider whether or not guidance is far enough west with that feature, which is dubious, but if it is....I am near ground zero there.

In windy storms you want to be on the down wind side . Like that local 8-10” upslope storm in this area in Morch a few years ago . It was snowing over BDL yet all the snow was deposited in the hills of TOL county. In these bombs with ripping winds ENE the west side of those bands.. wherever they end up .. just get hammered 

[Cyclone-68]

I’m going to look at this as a 36 hour snow derecho 

[Patrick-02540]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This map will go down in flames 

What is someone looking at to get those numbers?

[shawnmov]

We gonna be at 300 pages by the time the 18Z Euro starts rolling. 

What is the record?

[Greg]

I'm really just curious of just how wild this might actually get on Saturday. Fluffy blowing snow. Gusts 45-50MPH with temps in the low to mid 20's. Sounds good to me. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, shawnmov said:

We gonna be at 300 pages by the time the 18Z Euro starts rolling. 

What is the record?

i feel like threads used to get "part 2"s

[ROOSTA]

40 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

gotta find an example of 700

Tell me what you are looking for, timeframe, variable? 
I can whip one up on (for) the American models. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, shawnmov said:

We gonna be at 300 pages by the time the 18Z Euro starts rolling. 

What is the record?

Red Sox thread one year was >1000 pages

[JC-CT]

Just now, ROOSTA said:

Tell me what you are looking for, timeframe, variable? 
I can whip one up on (for) the American models. 

i found and posted it right after

[BrianW]

33 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Hamden CT recorded 40” in Feb 2013…..