Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Forky posted

i posted an hour and a half ago

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's Feb 2013 band right there

Always want to be just west of those for the goods .. especially with strong ENE winds 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Harv going extreme impacts on the Cape

Did you have to snap off the screen shot at preCIsely the moment he put down the bong -

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

the sinking air from the ORH hills and NE CT is the opposite of what you need for precip which requires rising motion and condensation

I think just being farther west in an area that is favored by storm track is key for Fairfield and New Haven counties. Might make up for the downsoping. But Lyme CT may not have ever seen a 24"+ snowstorm in 100 years, while they seem to occur regurarly in coastal Fairlfiend and NHV counties. 

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

[ice1972]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Totally croaks CT….50 burger

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

Remember that Morch 2014 storm ? 

[skierinvermont]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

That makes perfect sense. I think I knew that in the back of my mind bit didn't put it all together. You see it all the time. Yes those onshore winds would slow down and pile up in Eastern MA causing convergence and rising air.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

probably some downsloping from just being in a valley as well

[HinghamBoss]

What’s the most snow recorded at a SNE weather station in a single storm?  Is it the 34” in Worcester during Juno?

for all the hemming and hawing over this storm, I don’t think the historic aspect of potential accumulations is being appreciated.

Total aside: I remember a storm when I was in college where Schwoegler hyped 40-50”.  Was that 2001 or 2002?

[8611Blizz]

What's the time frame for this to be raging in ESNE?  10am to 8pm?

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Always want to be just west of those for the goods .. especially with strong ENE winds 

I hope you're right--that's where I am.

[skierinvermont]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

We see it in Springfield MA as well on more due east winds too I think. That's a combo of the terrain and coastal convergence

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

What’s the most snow recorded at a SNE weather station in a single storm?  Is it the 34” in Worcester during Juno?

for all the hemming and hawing over this storm, I don’t think the historic aspect of potential accumulations is being appreciated.

Total aside: I remember a storm when I was in college where Schwoegler hyped 40-50”.  Was that 2001 or 2002?

Hamden CT recorded 40” in Feb 2013…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ray,  how about wind gusts?  A 960mb system bombing out must be able to bring in some huge gusts?  1978 was a 984mb storm but had a stronger high pressure to our west/north

Maybe like 2/3 of the wind, and 1/3 coastal flooding...if that.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Hamden CT recorder 40” in Feb 2013…..

hamden isn't a station. new haven is

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I hope you're right--that's where I am.

Me too

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

probably some downsloping from just being in a valley as well

Yeah some of that as well (if you are seeing background sinking air and then adding a little oomph in the lowest levels, it can’t help, ha)..,but the delta in the terrain isn’t *that* much.  I just picture this massive pile up of air onto land and strong rising motion, then beyond that you have a tendency to see persistent sinking air… which occasional banding and other lift can compensate but if you get stuck in a slow moving system with that standing wave, it could be hard to break out of it.

[ice1972]

Just now, JC-CT said:

hamden isn't a station. new haven is

Forget stations then…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

What’s the most snow recorded at a SNE weather station in a single storm?  Is it the 34” in Worcester during Juno?

for all the hemming and hawing over this storm, I don’t think the historic aspect of potential accumulations is being appreciated.

Total aside: I remember a storm when I was in college where Schwoegler hyped 40-50”.  Was that 2001 or 2002?

I think Savoy, MA in the Berkshires had like 44" in Dec 1992.

Shwoegler hyped March 5, 2001..."There's the Demon"...

[NeonPeon]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

I always thought part of this effect was also ocean enhanced snow in a typical noreaster always enhancing rates to the north and east, then subsiding into the bay. Feel free to dispel this hackish bullshittery.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

We see it in Springfield MA as well on more due east winds too I think. That's a combo of the terrain and coastal convergence

See I think that’s more pure terrain downslope. Anyway, like @Damage In Tollandmentioned that March 2014 event is an extreme example of a standing wave inland beyond the coastal plain speed convergence and/or coastal front.

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah some of that as well (if you are seeing background sinking air and then adding a little oomph in the lowest levels, it can’t help, ha)..,but the delta in the terrain isn’t *that* much.  I just picture this massive pile up of air onto land and strong rising motion, then beyond that you have a tendency to see persistent sinking air… which occasional banding and other lift can compensate but if you get stuck in a slow moving system with that standing wave, it could be hard to break out of it.

it's a few hundred feet on each side in SE CT

[mostman]

6 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

What’s the most snow recorded at a SNE weather station in a single storm?  Is it the 34” in Worcester during Juno?

for all the hemming and hawing over this storm, I don’t think the historic aspect of potential accumulations is being appreciated.

Total aside: I remember a storm when I was in college where Schwoegler hyped 40-50”.  Was that 2001 or 2002?

The official spotter in our town had us at 36” for Juno. It just didn’t make the PNS for some reason. Although his measurements typically do. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it’s on. 

Its been on for you for quite a few cycles.

[wxeyeNH]

Snow totals are going to be extremely hard to measure with this storm.  People are going to be posting all kinds of wild numbers.  I was 13 years old in 1969.  I think that was what was called the 100 hour storm.  Us kids were able to walk up to the roof of our school building while other areas had bare grass. (Wayland)  Drifting was huge.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This will be comparable to 1978 in terms of snowfall...nothing else

I would argue this storm could rival intensity, too...

We don't have a 1045 high N of MN with arming into eastern Ontario an over arcing +pp like back whence, ..no.  But, that went down to 984 in a higher overall ambient PP... So how do you take it, and put it in this ambient pressure pattern - what is that 970 ... 972, 966?  This may very well nadir into the high 950s! against a 1032 mb high.  Hmm  it's worth discussion.  

Talking 76 mb of static gradient, with 925 mb winds nearing 80 kts... The wind machine is comparable. 

Conceptual white board:  This is a Miller A capture/subsume by a N/stream short wave... 1978 did that ( different set up leading achieving the same result) but not as coherent as this is (likely ..) destined to perform.  Why?  This is no mere weak wave E of Georgia getting foisted N. This an obvious theta-e saturated cyclone that goes through that special steroidal treatment. 

This won't likely stall like 1978...which protracted impact - that may stay '78 as mastery because of that one fact.  But also, we get into the whole era-relativism where it was more obsticular to that state of society then ( 'obsticular' ... that seems like it should be world LOL ) but you know what mean.   If this thing stalls and manages to get Sunday morning's high tide involved, we're easily in big big trouble down there...   

 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Snow totals are going to be extremely hard to measure with this storm.  People are going to be posting all kinds of wild numbers.  I was 13 years old in 1969.  I think that was what was called the 100 hour storm.  Us kids were able to walk up to the roof of our school building while other areas had bare grass. (Wayland)  Drifting was huge.

I've often heard that the measurements for 96 were woefully inaccurate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would argue this storm could rival intensity, too...

We don't have a 1045 high N of MN with arming into eastern Ontario an over arcing +pp like back whence, ..no.  But, that went down to 984 in a higher overall ambient PP... So how do you take it, and put it in this ambient pressure pattern - what is that 970 ... 972, 966?  This may very well nadir into the high 950s! against a 1032 mb high.  Hmm  it's worth discussion.  

Talking 76 mb of static gradient, with 925 mb winds nearing 80 kts... The wind machine is comparable. 

Conceptual white board:  This is a Miller A capture/subsume by a N/stream short wave... 1978 did that ( different set up leading achieving the same result) but not as coherent as this is (likely ..) destined to perform.  Why?  This is no mere weak wave E of Georgia getting foisted N. This an obvious theta-e saturated cyclone that goes through that special steroidal treatment. 

This won't likely stall like 1978...which protracted impact - that may stay '78 as mastery because of that one fact.  But also, we get into the whole era-relativism where it was more obsticular to that state of society then ( 'obsticular' ... that seems like it should be world LOL ) but you know what mean.   If this thing stalls and manages to get Sunday morning's high tide involved, we're easily in big big trouble down there...   

 

I think the lesser stall element is more of a mitigating impact with respect to coastal flooding than snowfall......once it sits and occludes, that is basically that, anyway.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I think that’s more pure terrain downslope. Anyway, like @Damage In Tollandmentioned that March 2014 event is an extreme example of a standing wave inland beyond the coastal plain speed convergence and/or coastal front.

Ekster was the only one who could figure out how that had happened initially . I woke up to 14” that morning and it just kept pounding 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

What's the time frame for this to be raging in ESNE?  10am to 8pm?

From days to other days