Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is wild from 12km to 3km both run at 18z.  Good luck Mets with that spread.

Easy forecast for the south shore and Cape at least.

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best run for the queens yet

It’s awesome even up here. 

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

VERY much looking forward to the 4 pm BOX AFD 

Have not seen the "B" word in their AFDs... maybe some of the mesos are giving pause, but you'd think we are close with the Euro/NAM doubling down

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

NAM drops the H5 from a 522 closed contour to a 510 closed contour in... 6 hours. What. How?

The mechanics of cyclogenesis itself and related rising air motion, also lowers height; it’s not just the approach of the trough from the west. That’s what I was trying to describe earlier regarding feedback mechanisms… It’s one of the reasons why the 12z solution did not reach its upper bound is because of that dual low spread the lift

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

 

 

Snow does some weird shit to dudes

 

[dendrite]

In random 12z model news…

The frenchy was a good hit for BOS and SE MA with some snow up here, and the chinese and korean were cape hits with some snow back to BOS but nada here.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The mechanics of cyclogenesis itself and related rising air motion, also lowers height; it’s not just the approach of the trough from the west. That’s what I was trying to describe earlier regarding feedback mechanisms… It’s one of the reasons why the 12z solution did not reach its upper bound is because of that dual low spread the lift

I know that's how cyclogenesis works generally, but to that degree seems like +4 SD. For the particular evolution of that run, not necessarily for the event, I will add

[JKEisMan]

17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The 18z NAM 3km is a disaster. Way east.

The weather gods are making you work overtime on this one.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Trimming off the w side and pumping up the e side has begun.

That’s a killing here…and for most all of CT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is wild from 12km to 3km both run at 18z.  Good luck Mets with that spread.

 

 

It might matter if “Mets” used those products?

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

In random 12z model news…

The frenchy was a good hit for BOS and SE MA with some snow up here, and the chinese and korean were cape hits with some snow back to BOS but nada here.

The frenchy was great hit for virtually everyone except our VT friends unfortunately

[EastonSN+]

I mean wow.

Only shows about 12 Kutchera wise here BUT that intense of a low and in that position/track no doubt the amounts would be higher here.

Not saying ab 5ft for Boston but a wider more intense precip shield.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

The things that can go wrong may not go wrong until the storm has already started.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s awesome even up here. 

Yup starting to look historic after all

[Torch Tiger]

[CT Rain]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, even moreso than normal. I get it.  I would have thought the mesos would be the one to wrap tis over my house, but the opposite is true.

 

Exactly. There's something weird going on.

The fact that 30% of the Euro Ens members don't even give Boston 6" shows that this setup is really freaking challenging.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a killing here…and for most all of CT. 

Yeah it's a BEAST.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

looks great if you throw out the ones that suck

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is wild from 12km to 3km both run at 18z.  Good luck Mets with that spread.

I'd sign my first born over to get the 12K here.  That's not saying much, he is an annoying 17 yo.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Exactly. There's something weird going on.

The fact that 30% of the Euro Ens members don't even give Boston 6" shows that this setup is really freaking challenging.

I’d be curious to see the H5 look in those members. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Local met on the radio just said 2-4” here and maybe just a dusting for the Berkshires and S VT.  

[Patrick-02540]

12 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

You know it was a great model run when things start getting that classic Greco-Roman atmosphere in here. 

Absolutely.  It was a very fine tribute to the Greeks, who invented sex. And to the Romans, who introduced women 300 years later.  

[radarman]

the 3km nam snakes some really dry air down the valley which seems unrealistic compared to the other models.  May at least partially explain the sharp cutoff.

[HinghamBoss]

It's interesting to scan through the different snow maps across the Boston television stations.  Channel 5 is most aggressive with the wide swath of 24+.

[dendrite]

32k for the tie break?

[JC-CT]

18z rgem really stretches the low out again but it still is a good hit verbatim

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

It's interesting to scan through the different snow maps across the Boston television stations.  Channel 5 is most aggressive with the wide swath of 24+.

Channel 5 is the one you want on your side....Harvey

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, JC-CT said:

18z rgem really stretches the low out again but it still is a good hit verbatim

saw this before I got ninja'd. Yea looks less consolidated

[wxsniss]

Fwiw which is probably just adding noise but confirming the sensitivity of the synoptics:

18z RGEM showing that dual-low BS with a runaway low farther northeast, not as good a hit as 12z

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

18z rgem really stretches the low out again but it still is a good hit verbatim

it looks too close to the 12z ggem to me at hour 48...still don't know if I trust these rgem runs aren't anything more than the nested ggem