Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Interesting all the mesos are meh. 3K NAM, ARW, etc.

hrrr, rap as well

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The 12k is pretty nice… but looks like we’d get pretty close To flirting with subsistence or a dry slot here if that happened 

There's going to be a gnarly one somewhere between you and I..pin the tail on the donkey. Just hope we are just outside of it. 

tbh I think it will be closer to me than you. The NAM is sub 960mb so I think its pushing the bands way NW. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The 12k is pretty nice… but looks like we’d get pretty close To flirting with subsistence or a dry slot here if that happened 

East of that BB warm front at 700 it's probably moderate precip with a few heavy bands, vs the big band of heavy snow west of H7 warm front.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks to have closed a hair sooner this run.

[mreaves]

Picture of Vermonters on the outside looking in

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Interesting all the mesos are meh. 3K NAM, ARW, etc.

Also interesting how the lower res. EPS members are also more likely to be meh

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Interesting all the mesos are meh. 3K NAM, ARW, etc.

Not the NMB, lol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html

 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to have closed a hair sooner this run.

Hopefully it closes under LI

[SlantStick]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I'm not sold until you tell me how many mutha****as this storm is! Most important metric I trust

[LakeEffectKing]

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows

 

Quite a few of those don't look half bad for back here...the first 3 maps

[CT Rain]

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not the NMB, lol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html

 

 

congrats runnaway

[JC-CT]

Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

shocked face emoji

[powderfreak]

This is wild from 12km to 3km both run at 18z.  Good luck Mets with that spread.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Look I hear you, and I hear Chris.

But on the other hand, Kevin says it's an easy forecast.

This is a real stumper.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

We could just rub bums

You know it was a great model run when things start getting that classic Greco-Roman atmosphere in here. 

[rockchalk83]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Generally, how have the meso models done with situations like this in your region? Do you see signs in any of them that this will tick back NW. Watching all of this from Kansas, as there's been nothing worth following out here since the big windstorm on December 15. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

What a run. SE NH approved 

Bout time.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Yeah, even moreso than normal. I get it.  I would have thought the mesos would be the one to wrap tis over my house, but the opposite is true.

 

[Henry's Weather]

VERY much looking forward to the 4 pm BOX AFD 

[SJonesWX]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That probably is a Kev-ORH-RAY -BOS-RI jack in that oval I made. Give or take 15 miles from that.

maybe paint that oval ~25 miles to the NNW of Ray please, kthx

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The key was that curling that started to happen around 42h and it got rid of the dual low that 12z had....if you recall, 12z looked like it was going to be more insane than 06z at first, but then ended up a little less because of the dual low. This run shed that idea pretty quickly.

 

These small nuances are going to wreak havoc on the final sensible wx outcomes....

Agreed… I mentioned the same thing to Scott earlier in the day that it was pretty clear that dual low structure was robbing that run from its upper bounds. 

[willyvonka]

EMA...you're gonna need a bigger yardstick. 

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This band may end up sitting and pivoting. If that happens...oh my lord. oh lord

I think Wiz is having an orgasm.  Over a NAM--the BBW of models.

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That probably is a Kev-ORH-RAY -BOS-RI jack in that oval I made. Give or take 15 miles from that.

Quick question, why was there ever any doubt of this? This is climatology 101.

[met_fan]

Albany sitting at about 12” on the year and right in the doughnut hole again

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Interesting all the mesos are meh. 3K NAM, ARW, etc.

They always are 2 days out 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

It makes it worse that there really is no middle ground (at least back this way) it's either very low end or a total crush job.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Button your pants Henry 

 

18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

tucky tucky

 

16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm a rear guy 

 

15 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I've never weenied like this before

 

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Keeps tickling west and tucky

 

13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Just swinging in the air

Snow does some weird shit to dudes