Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The 12k is pretty nice… but looks like we’d get pretty close To flirting with subsistence or a dry slot here if that happened 

There's going to be a gnarly one somewhere between you and I..pin the tail on the donkey. Just hope we are just outside of it. 

tbh I think it will be closer to me than you. The NAM is sub 960mb so I think its pushing the bands way NW. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The 12k is pretty nice… but looks like we’d get pretty close To flirting with subsistence or a dry slot here if that happened 

East of that BB warm front at 700 it's probably moderate precip with a few heavy bands, vs the big band of heavy snow west of H7 warm front.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

  • Like 12
  • Thanks 2
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Look I hear you, and I hear Chris.

But on the other hand, Kevin says it's an easy forecast.

This is a real stumper.

  • Haha 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Generally, how have the meso models done with situations like this in your region? Do you see signs in any of them that this will tick back NW. Watching all of this from Kansas, as there's been nothing worth following out here since the big windstorm on December 15. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

Yeah, even moreso than normal. I get it.  I would have thought the mesos would be the one to wrap tis over my house, but the opposite is true.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The key was that curling that started to happen around 42h and it got rid of the dual low that 12z had....if you recall, 12z looked like it was going to be more insane than 06z at first, but then ended up a little less because of the dual low. This run shed that idea pretty quickly.

 

These small nuances are going to wreak havoc on the final sensible wx outcomes....

Agreed… I mentioned the same thing to Scott earlier in the day that it was pretty clear that dual low structure was robbing that run from its upper bounds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't think a lot of people realize how unusually sensitive this forecast is to fairly small changes in the evolution.

The fact that all of the mesoscale models are way out there and the EPS distribution has grown quite a bit from 0z to 12z is a pretty big red flag.

I'd hedge toward a bigger solution but man there's a lot that's pretty weird about this one.

It makes it worse that there really is no middle ground (at least back this way) it's either very low end or a total crush job.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Button your pants Henry 

 

18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

tucky tucky

 

16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm a rear guy 

 

15 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I've never weenied like this before

 

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Keeps tickling west and tucky

 

13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Just swinging in the air

Snow does some weird shit to dudes

:unsure:

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...