Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Rain]

700 low track is a bit east for my liking here.

BUT that 500mb low track is juicy for us. So a decent look for some deform snow even far west.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We're still here, bleeding...but congratulating the better team for their win. 

This could be an event where Danbury gets 2" and Waterbury picks up 12". I'll be heading east on 84 though so be on the lookout for the weenie truck. 

Idk I am waayyyyyy more optimistic here. 

There is no reason this can't clobber us as well. I mean 3 hour earlier close off? 

Happy EURO did not slide east.

Also even though the models are starting to merge on a solution does not mean they all can't correct a tiny bit.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It hurts, enjoy guys. So close but there will be no cigar here. Still waiting on our first widespread 18”+ in 9 years this side of the river.  We hope for 3-6” here. 

Yea. One day that puking max zone over SEMA will stretch from NYC to Hartford. One day...

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

This is just for fun... obviously these are excessive, but even so not often we see this depiction...

Cut that by 40% and its still amazing.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

U pay for pivotal? Is it worth it? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

700 low track is a bit east for my liking here.

BUT that 500mb low track is juicy for us. So a decent look for some deform snow even far west.

What’s your gut say, tickle west to get our area in goods, or tickle east and we risk getting little to none?

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ur in the game for 30

[wkd]

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I mean, we've seen triple phasers before -- max potential usually in the 960's at 40N?  what is the history of non-tropical lows sub 960 at ~40N.  I don't know of any 950's examples in my lifetime. I think anything lower than that is suggesting a warm-core sub tropical entity, which never made sense in peak winter climo.

I think 965ish should have always been the extreme high end bar for non-tropical low such as this, at 40N. 960 ish further north in the GOM. 

The 12z euro, verbatim flirts with this max potential. 

The new reality.

[Cold Miser]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

This is just for fun... obviously these are excessive, but even so not often we see this depiction...

lol. Is that 49" between Harwich and Chatham on the cape?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I did...

seriously, I'm a ********  .. well, I am but not of this.  This thing's U/A mechanics are superb.. the lows have all been situated too far E of that mid level forcing. 

That can happen, but I am noticing a definitive trend to keep the 700 to 300 mechanical structures at longitude/latitude scaffolds, while successive runs fight to inch the lows west to meet. 

I don't think this is done trending either, though dramatic shifts may be a thing of the past.  This can afford to bomb closer, and if/when it does, those feedback height falls from that processes will encourage the collocation of the mid level features, and all this ends up correcting to ACK in my mind.

That's just farmer Met John's hot take, but it is where my visualization resolves this for the time being. I don't see this modulating enough to change that perspective, so it could just be wrong. Just sayn'

A few of us sure did 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

U pay for pivotal? Is it worth it? 

Yes, You get local view as well as regional and national with a paid script, As well as the the upper air charts.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. One day that puking max zone over SEMA will stretch from NYC to Hartford. One day...

You still have a full day for ticks. 

[George001]

40 inches of snow in Boston… Boston got that much snow last year the ENTIRE WINTER. Most areas are below average right now (Boston has like 12-13 inches, average around 20 by this time of the year from what I’ve seen), but after this storm it’s very possible Boston is into the 40s or even 50s. Boston averages in low 40s for total snow per winter, and there’s still 2 months left. This is why it’s a good idea to wait even if winters start slow before writing it off. All it takes is one monster blizzard and all of a sudden you go from a shitty winter to a great one. 2012-2013 was like that too, started kinda slow and then got hammered in Feb and March. 2014-2015 started slow as well.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the queens

I could certainly go for another tic or two W since qpf doubles 30mi E of me. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Based on BOXs latest snow map, watches probably flip to warnings and watches get added for the remaining counties in the FA.

Berkshire County should probably get one for impact and a possible (though unlikely) west trend.

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds like a huge weenie, you should invite him to the board so he can share his own thoughts.

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

U pay for pivotal? Is it worth it? 

It's only like $8 too

[mahk_webstah]

The king is risen and now all the little models will fall in line 

 

[ROOSTA]

The Watch, Warning issuance is time sensitive and confidence to the event.
As of "now" a Blizzard Warning will be issued at 24 hrs. before if not slightly after the start. 
Public Warnings on that level speak for itself.  

 

[WeatherWilly]

Congrats Cape.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yes, You get local view as well as regional and national with a paid script

 

 

Correct me if am wrong but you have been in a big storm drought yourself so I hope you get this one man. 

[SJonesWX]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You got nothing in that? 

Wow...I had 18" in Wilmington, but I think Methuen had like 5".

<5". i remember being able to see the dark clouds well to my south where it was ripping snow, while it was just cirrus overhead. took hours for the snow to come north

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think watches will come west a bit this afternoon

I agree. Hartford County in Connecticut here, and I was waiting to see what happened with the Euro this afternoon. I'm thinking around 4 ish is when will see the watches go up at the next update

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

This is just for fun... obviously these are excessive, but even so not often we see this depiction...

45" - I can't ask for anything more.  I thought it was all downhill from the 36" it showed at 0z last night.

[mattm4242]

All of the eastern mass posters right now.

[CoastalWx]

The euro would be a real high impact on the Cape. Temps might be near 32 Saturday morning as the QPF blob moves in. Temps then drop and wind picks up. If that snow freezes onto the trees with those winds, good bye power and hello     

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The euro would be a real high impact on the Cape. Temps might be near 32 Saturday morning as the QPF blob moves in. Temps then drop and wind picks up. If that snow freezes onto the trees with those winds, good bye power and hello     

I was thinking the same, looks like a roof collapser

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro would be a real high impact on the Cape. Temps might be near 32 Saturday morning as the QPF blob moves in. Temps then drop and wind picks up. If that snow freezes onto the trees with those winds, good bye power and hello     

Jan05

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Cut that by 40% and its still amazing.

Heh ... good luck trying to measure 34" on Cape Cod with sustained 55 mph gusts into the 70s

[SouthCoastMA]

Ok I said Top 5 earlier. After 12z Euro that would again compete for Top 3. 

BTW I seem to be in an area between two max zones. Subsidence? 

Either way, I just chopped a sh*t ton of wood in preparation for no power. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup, a big IF. The same people who berate the euro time and time are again suddenly taking it for face value. 

We'll see what the next 48hrs brings but this is about as far nw as this can get. Just have to keep the east slides to a min out here. 

Still a fair amount of time for ticks. Right now I think it’s better to continue highlighting the probabilities and lean conservative in a map at the moment and adjust early tomorrow if needed.