Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, 42N72W said:

Boston NWS cutting way back for Groton MA: 4-8”. Not good. We’re only 30 miles or so from the coast.

where do you see this

[Damage In Tolland]

2 days away. Many tickles and wobbles west and east to go

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where is...”the demon” going 

guesses on euro at 12z

i think it holds serve from 6z which was a bit worse than 0z

west. just because it seems fitting

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with that 1% chance of 18" here...strongly TBH. Lots of support for a good band here.

You know how the NWS operates.  Continuity of forecasts.  Won't make major changes but slowly.  My bet is by tomorrow, that area is expanded N & W.

[TalcottWx]

Patience

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, 42N72W said:

Boston NWS cutting way back for Groton MA: 4-8”. Not good. We’re only 30 miles or so from the coast.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, JC-CT said:

where do you see this

Somewhere other than the NWS.

[Patrick-02540]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

2 days away. Many tickles and wobbled west and east to go

Yup.  If it's gonna go back and forth until T0, let's lose it again today, and get it back tomorrow.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

I'd weigh in the possibility of the at least the Route 7 corridor getting 0.0"

That's the real borderline.

The River valley is probably OK for, at a minimum, an advisory event.

[Chrisrotary12]

What am I missing? Why do people not like the GGEM solution? It's a 970mb low tracking 50 mi southeast of Nantucket....

[Baroclinic Zone]

ninga'd  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

What am I missing? Why do people not like the GGEM solution? It's a 970mb low tracking 50 mi southeast of Nantucket....

i shall remain quiet on this subject

[radarman]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You know how the NWS operates.  Continuity of forecasts.  Won't make major changes but slowly.  My bet is by tomorrow, that area is expanded N & W.

not saying you are wrong, but that's not a good way to communicate risk.  Fortunately, I doubt anyone pays attention to those maps.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The ukie is a terrible model

How do you have those shifts close to an event ?

Every time a model doesn't show the solution you want it to show  you throw  the model  in to the dumpster...

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The ukie is a terrible model

How do you have those shifts close to an event ?

It always does that at the surface. Huge jumps with these coastal lows. Usually the GGEM is a little less jumpy IMO but it's been bad too.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Somewhere other than the NWS.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.60677000000004&lon=-71.56931999999995#.YfLRXOrMKUk

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon

Sunny, with a high near 25. South wind 5 to 8 mph.

Tonight

Increasing clouds, with a low around 18. South wind around 6 mph.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Friday Night

A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 11. North wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly between 1pm and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 19. North wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Northwest wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What am I missing? Why do people not like the GGEM solution? It's a 970mb low tracking 50 mi southeast of Nantucket....

I like it very much. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.60677000000004&lon=-71.56931999999995#.YfLRXOrMKUk

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon

Sunny, with a high near 25. South wind 5 to 8 mph.

Tonight

Increasing clouds, with a low around 18. South wind around 6 mph.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Friday Night

A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 11. North wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly between 1pm and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 19. North wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Northwest wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

You could literally move the map pin 500 feet and the forecast would go from 6-12 to 1-3.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What am I missing? Why do people not like the GGEM solution? It's a 970mb low tracking 50 mi southeast of Nantucket....

Misses the pause and left hook into the GOM that really helps up totals for everyone outside the EMA zone. Still an OK run tho. There have been worse. LOL

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

not saying you are wrong, but that's not a good way to communicate risk.  Fortunately, I doubt anyone pays attention to those maps.

Most of the general public would not even know how to find those maps.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What am I missing? Why do people not like the GGEM solution? It's a 970mb low tracking 50 mi southeast of Nantucket....

Nobody trusts the GGEM.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What am I missing? Why do people not like the GGEM solution? It's a 970mb low tracking 50 mi southeast of Nantucket....

It’s not that it’s not liked. It looks great . It’s that it went 150 miles NW at 0z and 75 miles SE at 12z . It’s like yes looks great , where is Waldo going next 

[Damage In Tolland]

Who cares what BOX has ? They are not a “go to “ source anymore 

[SouthCoastMA]

My NWS point/click shows 16-26". 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares what BOX has ? They are not a “go to “ source anymore 

I use  a george /kuro/ edible blend  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Most of the general public would not even know how to find those maps.

I'm going to guess most people don't even know it's the NWS that issues all the watches/warnings.  They just assume it's the TV channel they watch.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

You could literally move the map pin 500 feet and the forecast would go from 6-12 to 1-3.

what are you talking about

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I use  a george /kuro/ edible blend  

Be careful about the Kevchera method of ratios. Tends to go wild. 

[UnitedWx]

I just realized that the FUweather app still has Westfield at 12 to 18 inches LOL (I only use it for temp and radar!)

[ROOSTA]

Just add 12" to any "official" accumulation map. Still time to adjust up...LOL