Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[NotSureWeather]

Just now, PhineasC said:

hopefully we finally get through a model cycle where they all agree and back up the bigger solution. Every damn time it seems we get one of them to have a big run and then the next in the chute craps the bed.

Was just gonna say this. Would be good for our mental health. Which means it won’t happen.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

No such thing.

I was sad the day NWS got rid of "heavy snow" warnings.   I loved seeing that deep purple on the forecast map.

[78Blizzard]

Good start to the 12z suite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

"There's the demon"...seems to have shifted the focus north a bit....later capture maybe....

[wxeyeNH]

5 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

GFS may be east then, too, since its FV3-based.

Is this true?  Is there evidence the GFS follows the trend of the FV-3?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was sad the day NWS got rid of "heavy snow" warnings.   I loved seeing that deep purple on the forecast map.

Those were the biggest weenie warnings ever.

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

hopefully we finally get through a model cycle where they all agree and back up the bigger solution. Every damn time it seems we get one of them to have a big run and then the next in the chute craps the bed.

'tis the nature of the beast

[ROOSTA]

Y'all gon need a bigger boat.
Snatched from the "jaws" of doom!
The overall solution has been revealed. Criticized for mentioning 2', now they don't talk so loud!
Just going to sit back here and watch the awesome power of Mother Nature deliver.

 

[PWMan]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"There's the demon"...seems to have shifted the focus north a bit....later capture maybe....

Might have to frame that one.

[NotSureWeather]

Just now, ROOSTA said:

Y'all gon need a bigger boat.
Snatched from the "jaws" of doom!
The overall solution has been revealed. Criticized for mentioning 2', now they don't talk so loud!
Just going to sitting back here and watch the awesome power of Mother Nature deliver.

 

Hope you are correct sir.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"There's the demon"...seems to have shifted the focus north a bit....later capture maybe....

That's legit big storm up here. Man, can't the NAM be right just this once??

[40/70 Benchmark]

That NAM run would jack near the area that 3/5/01 did, just a tad east in se NH and extreme s ME

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Is this true?  Is there evidence the GFS follows the trend of the FV-3?

The GFS does whatever the f it wants.

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

That's legit big storm up here. Man, can't the NAM be right just this once??

Three runs in a row and last nights globals had it close to there at the surface, I would consider it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, NAM is my preferred solution to be sure.

I just died on the inside a bit....

[RI Rob]

The consensus is that this isn't a 10:1 type storm right?

[SouthCoastMA]

SST's in the upper 30's now Cape Cod Bay..low/mid 40's as you go further out. 

 

Look at those 70's to the south

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"There's the demon"...seems to have shifted the focus north a bit....later capture maybe....

Jack zone for you but we will undoubtedly see that shift around a bit over the next 24 hours.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy your foot -18”

Even the nam barely gets a foot back here and we know it's overdone anyway. Enjoy your 14-20" there brother, should be a good one out east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Jack zone for you but we will undoubtedly see that shift around a bit over the next 24 hours.

I'd rather it not shift around too much.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, RI Rob said:

The consensus is that this isn't a 10:1 type storm right?

Some will get better than 10:1 but the shattered dendrite factor will be in play for those between the best banding zones.

[HinghamBoss]

Anyone else feeling like it is time for this damn thing to start already?  We are on our way to 300 pages of fodder and freaking out (present company included).  
 

This has the feeling of building towards something historic.  For anyone down about the floor being a 6-12” storm…go read the end of December threads!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM is 24+ here… great solution 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather it not shift around too much.

Oh I know, just makes sense that models won't lock until close to go time.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, NAM is my preferred solution to be sure.

I just died on the inside a bit....

 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Three runs in a row and last nights globals had it close to there at the surface, I would consider it.

Two camps still on the models. There is the NAM camp that the Euro started and is still kinda in and the SE lame camp with the GFS. The GGEM and UKMET keep going back and forth, not sure what they want to be.

[PowderBeard]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"There's the demon"...seems to have shifted the focus north a bit....later capture maybe....

303 unread? I thought I was bad lol

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ve heard this 24x a day for the past 5 days. They’re a lock for 18+. Question remains, does anyone else get to disrobe with them.

That NAM run is excellent here Luke…

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Two camps still on the models. There is the NAM camp that the Euro started and is still kinda in and the SE lame camp with the GFS. The GGEM and UKMET keep going back and forth, not sure what they want to be.

The only model that's is not in camp is the GFS, Its by itself, Maybe you need to hold its hand.

[tavwtby]

yeah I don't see much more than 6" wor with current guidance, just one of those, too far west for the goods, cutters like last one we were too far east, still managed about 5 before the rain began, so if we pull 5 from this here, we'll have close to 10" otg here.