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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I thought I was the only one lol. I got bashed on another forum for calling it worthless :lol:

This run has huge glaring issues with convective feedback. It appears to cause premature focus …way removed/ahead of the synoptic forcing. It strips away an early low toward the open Atlantic …stealing away the baroclinicity long before the real trough has any chance.  

Not sure it’s right … as that word choice would suggest. Ha

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Nope…doesn’t work that way. Lower res means fewer data points, different values, and different calculations. Plus you have chaos with the difference in rounding of values.

ah yes, thats what i figured lower res at the starting point which would result in a greater and greater spread in the variables through time. I think i was thinking the same input/calculations but the grid values output was just a lower resolution, that makes sense.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Well, as the bodies of despondent Buffalo Bills fans continue to plunge into Lake Erie, folks here in New England should have eyes peeled out west this week....as it is the rather small nuances with respect to the atmospheric heights in this area that will ultimately determine whether our region sees what has the potential to be a literal blizzard on Saturday, or perhaps a mere glancing blow with some snow. The upside is like nothing we have seen for several years, so a very volatile situation to say the least. Considering the manner in which this season has evolved, or hasn't, there must be somewhat of a "boy who cried wolf" ambiance emerging, but this season has and continues to be an atmospheric powder keg just waiting to erupt. But alas', you can't shovel "potential"...should have a good idea by Tuesday.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I’m wondering about the tendency for the lead flow structure to be too flat in guidance. The ICON is likely wrong anyway … but the lack of leading curved flow is why/how it uses early convection to gather a low and race it E. The storm before the last had that problem. 

I think we’re missing some % of wave momentum spilling in; more would torque the exit region of the trough more curved … that would help cap the surplus early convection. 

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