Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It was

Lol, but it looks like it may be the correct outlier….? 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It was 30 miles east of there at 18z though,

Ya, was gonna say it’s so much closer/west than the CMC and Ukie were at 18z, so if it corrects slightly it’ll be near them now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean those models are both a little cray , it’s def a very nice move , I just don’t think euro moves near that much 

I do...we'll see...

[radarman]

 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RI used up 50 years of jackpot karma in the ‘78 storm…gotta wait until 2028 for them. 

I think Newport jackpotted 12/7/81.  Push it back to 2031.

[PhineasC]

I can't get over the shift the CMC and UKMET made from 12z. Just a totally different look. Garbage to MECS without blinking an eye. These shifts are pretty wild.

In a way, I have to give the GFS credit for hanging tough even if it's wrong. These other models are just crazy.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do...we'll see...

I now don't expect it to do much of anything but hold serve really after going back and looking at the 18z position.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I now don't expect it to do much of anything but hold serve really after going back and looking at the 18z position.

Canadian was further west than Euro. Still room for one more shift?

[Greg]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I now don't expect it to do much of anything but hold serve really after going back and looking at the 18z position.

I agree somewhat with this. I think it may tic west but not like some of the crazy stuff we saw with the UKIE and CMC just recently.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I can't get over the shift the CMC and UKMET made from 12z. Just a totally different look. Garbage to MECS without blinking an eye. These shifts are pretty wild.

In a way, I have to give the GFS credit for hanging tough even if it's wrong. These other models are just crazy.

Not really, looks like they followed the 18z euro.

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I can't get over the shift the CMC and UKMET made from 12z. Just a totally different look. Garbage to MECS without blinking an eye. These shifts are pretty wild.

In a way, I have to give the GFS credit for hanging tough even if it's wrong. These other models are just crazy.

The GFS has two extra runs per day to make it look like it's "hanging tough".  If you compare 0z to 12z it looks just as crazy.  QPF went from 1.1" to .10" at my location.  That's garbage.

[weathafella]

Gfs this run was not at all like prior runs.   Capture in GOM vs south of the cape.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not really

 

I mean compared to 12z. They were both whiffs at 12z...

Not saying they are wrong now, but the changes are what is nuts.

[DeltaT13]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I can't get over the shift the CMC and UKMET made from 12z. Just a totally different look. Garbage to MECS without blinking an eye. These shifts are pretty wild.

In a way, I have to give the GFS credit for hanging tough even if it's wrong. These other models are just crazy.

A “crazy” model that had it right at times is far better than a consistent model that was wrong the whole time. 

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I mean compared to 12z. They were both whiffs at 12z...

Yes, They were, The only model that had snow back here was basically the Euro outside the zonked 12z Nam.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

The GFS has two extra runs per day to make it look like it's "hanging tough".  If you compare 0z to 12z it looks just as crazy.  QPF went from 1.1" to .10" at my location.  That's garbage.

At your spot, sure. GFS has been mostly a lame whiff in northern and western zones for several cycles now.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

A “crazy” model that had it right at times is far better than a consistent model that was wrong the whole time. 

Careful, there are some here who would call you a mad fool for defending the CMC. 

Not me, I like it more than the UKMET and ICON which seem terrible to me.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Greg said:

I agree somewhat with this. I think it may tic west but not like some of the crazy stuff we saw with the UKIE and CMC just recently.

If it does it will be incremental i think.

[PhineasC]

These better runs tonight seem to have dropped the stalling BS and just drive this sucker north to north east. That's a better look for a region-wide MECS versus a HECS over a 20 square mile part of NJ or Eastern MA.

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

In all seriousness, if the GFS ends up being out to lunch on this one, someone at NCEP/WPC needs to take a look at why and get this solved.  While US East Coast cyclones might not be the focus of the CMC, Euro, UK because of their own missions and priorities, the US models should have this as one of their strengths, not weaknesses.  1/3 of the US population lives on the East Coast.  It should be a priority to get the accuracy up on these scenarios.  The GFS and NAM going back and forth is embarrassing inside the 5 day window.

I get it, but we have to remember these are just tools. There have been big individual misses or caves by the other models and even the ensembles—I’ve seen this particularly in tropical genesis/track/intensity forecasting. Obviously different than mid latitude cyclone forecasting, but this is why it’s important to not get too high or low on the specific runs and understand each model’s relative strengths/biases.

[hooralph]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These better runs tonight seem to have dropped the stalling BS and just drive this sucker north to north east. That's a better look for a region-wide MECS versus a HECS over a 20 square mile part of NJ or Eastern MA.

You mean a HEMASS? Or a HNJB?

[PhineasC]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I get it, but we have to remember these are just tools. There have been big individual misses or caves by the other models and even the ensembles—I’ve seen this particularly in tropical genesis/track/intensity forecasting. Obviously different than mid latitude cyclone forecasting, but this is why it’s important to not get too high or low on the specific runs and understand each model’s relative strengths/biases.

We are taxpaying weenies, and we deserve better.

That we as Americans have to cling to Canadian, German, Japanese, and now even French models to tell us how much snow for CT is a travesty!

[weathafella]

Promise her anything but give her Arpege.....

[PhineasC]

Can we please just lock this shit in now so I can enjoy the next few nights of tracking worrying about banding and rates instead of worrying the entire storm will miss by 1,000 miles?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/first-call-for-potential-weekend.html

Took a lot of balls for me to hedge this strongly right now, but 'alas....

UK has the band rIght where I placed it this PM

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK has the band rIght where I placed it this PM

GEM just a shade east

 

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

In all seriousness, if the GFS ends up being out to lunch on this one, someone at NCEP/WPC needs to take a look at why and get this solved.  While US East Coast cyclones might not be the focus of the CMC, Euro, UK because of their own missions and priorities, the US models should have this as one of their strengths, not weaknesses.  1/3 of the US population lives on the East Coast.  It should be a priority to get the accuracy up on these scenarios.  The GFS and NAM going back and forth is embarrassing inside the 5 day window.

The intricacies of this storm is so detailed and subtle that a slight delay in phasing can mean the difference between the CMC/Ukie vs GFS. 

The Ukie was heading towards Bermuda yesterday. The 18z Nam was about to join. Normally we'd have more wiggle room via Atlantic blocking. 

The model craziness does remind me of Boxing day. How that storm came together last minute was a miracle.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK has the band rIght where I placed it this PM

Can you post the wider NARCAN maps for the GGEM, UKMET, and Euro? Those maps are great.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK has the band rIght where I placed it this PM

I’d sign right now, accept my snow deposit, call it a winter, and not look back.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Greg said:

I agree somewhat with this. I think it may tic west but not like some of the crazy stuff we saw with the UKIE and CMC just recently.

Do you realize all it has to do is tic west to look like them?

Its hardly east of them at all now...

[bristolri_wx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I get it, but we have to remember these are just tools. There have been big individual misses or caves by the other models and even the ensembles—I’ve seen this particularly in tropical genesis/track/intensity forecasting. Obviously different than mid latitude cyclone forecasting, but this is why it’s important to not get too high or low on the specific runs and understand each model’s relative strengths/biases.

I totally understand everything you're saying and this stuff isn't easy by any means.  It just seems silly to me that US models aren't as good at some types of US weather than other agency's forecast systems.  We should strive to do better for our own backyards, especially when its a pretty densely populated area, and their own mission is "provide weather, water and climate data, forecasts, warnings, and impact-based decision support services for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy."