Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

 

The who did what?

Whoosh!

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we can make this an all out love, we pray. It’s more fun when all are involved. It’s hard witj our geography, but hopefully we all can get something. 

I hope its a foot plus to New York but that usually porks the Cape.

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Never saw the movie Animal House?  

In my entire life Ive probably seen 3% of all movies made in the past 50 years. Its not my savant.

[TalcottWx]

Is there anything that can be derived by looking at some of the more obscure details of modeling? Like for instance the sref is a bomb and the arw is nothing. I know some of our Mets know the way models operate on a mechanical level. 

Maybe there is a known bias here. And it can give us a key to understanding how to play this. 

[JC-CT]

Wonder what the DC crew thought of the EPS

[klw]

 

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

If I'm tired of whining and bitching about other people whining and bitching, and I whine and bitch about it, does that mean we can all be friends again?

We all blame you if this whiffs, you jinxed this on Monday

On 1/24/2022 at 4:41 PM, JC-CT said:

I don't ever recall a situation quite like this where a storm went poof. Could see us still missing an event though, but it is getting more unlikely every cycle.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

SREF spread got bigger this run. There must also be members going over the Cape here too.

[cut]

31 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

2/3s of EPS members are big hits back to HFD.

Was just thinking same for down here in Bridgeport area.

[ineedsnow]

NAM only out to hr9 but already see changes from 18z

[ineedsnow]

its early but this might get interesting again

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

SREF spread got bigger this run. There must also be members going over the Cape here too.

Ya the spread is crazy. Mean isn’t great but some promising members there. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, klw said:

 

We all blame you if this whiffs, you jinxed this on Monday

Lol well first of all, Scooter jinxed it by laughing at us. But more importantly, "a whiff" which would almost certainly be a grazer, is not going poof. I was talking about it literally falling apart and turning into a sheared mess consisting of snow showers for philly or something. I've seen that happen before more times that I care to remember 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM only out to hr9 but already see changes from 18z

It's almost like you shouldn't use it.

[WeatherHappens]

so when does the tick west start?

 

[DavisStraight]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

so when does the tick west start?

 

0Z

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its early but this might get interesting again

NAM is tossed long and hard, even if it shows a raging blizzard again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

SREF spread got bigger this run. There must also be members going over the Cape here too.

It’s wsne’s turn to latch onto serfs and random meso’s, like a NNE’er.

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s wsne’s turn to latch onto serfs and random meso’s, like ant

Glhf

[RI Rob]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

NAM is tossed long and hard, even if it shows a raging blizzard again.

Nope if it shows a blizzard we lock it in.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

so when does the tick west start?

 

Turn to your left, wind your watch, hold it to your ear.   That should work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Our only difference was I would have had 12-20” from I-91 all the way to the beaches 

That could be....I backed off a hair last minute out of deference to those brutal trends

[78Blizzard]

47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its lost most of the eastern outliers now and has a few more tucked west of the mean, That's a signal.

Notice the comparatively weaker group of members clustered just N of NS.  That's the progressive camp still hanging on.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

NAM is tossed long and hard, even if it shows a raging blizzard again.

A modeled KU could be the only KU we get…we may as well fancy it until reality sets in.

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Turn to your left, wind your watch, hold it to your ear.   That should work.

do I have to do them all at once?

[PhineasC]

18z EPS was the first run in a long while that reversed the trend of the mean precip totals sliding east. Pretty solid reversal too. Even as everyone said the EPS was "steady," that mean precip kept sliding. But it finally stopped. Hopefully a good omen.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's almost like you shouldn't use it.

some people never learn, i dont know why anyone looks at let alone in the 60-84 range. maybe inside 24 then ok fine

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

some people never learn, i dont know why anyone looks at let alone in the 60-84 range. maybe inside 24 then ok fine

Same reason people look at the Kuchie maps.

[dryslot]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

some people never learn, i dont know why anyone looks at let alone in the 60-84 range. maybe inside 24 then ok fine

Like the RGEM, But most will look and if it looks good, Latch on, If not toss.

[Torch Tiger]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

West could be best 

we're all hoping for this.  

[WeatherWilly]

Oh great the box of chocolates model is running again.