Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

And yours too.

LOL no.

Clearly not paying attention outside E MA.

I have been going back and forth between mostly whiff and 12"+ for a while. 

Most central and western zones have been doing the same thing. 

[MJO812]

Members are west on the eps

Way more tucked big bombs than 12z

Insane

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

EPS still have some value. GEFS less so imho - they seem to track the OP way too much. I prefer the spread on the EPS.

Yes, As the GFS op goes, So do the GEFS, I think that's a reason there going to be adding more members to it to smooth that out.

[Sn0waddict]

Just checked the 21z sref plumes because why the hell not.  Still a lot of misses and only some hits but the hits are huge. One gives KBDR 37.5 inches lol

[IowaStorm05]

This is good stuff. I myself though am not liking my recollection of recent posts with sentiments like "Not red flags, but Caveats", "Kind of complicated and lots of things need to go right", or, No blocking, is progressive".

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

LOL no.

Clearly not paying attention outside E MA.

I have been going back and forth between mostly whiff and 12"+ for a while. 

Most central and western zones have been doing the same thing. 

Guess you haven't paid attention for here either,  18z runs outside Euro, were run of the mill nuisance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This makes me feel better about my big hedge on first call map

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event.

And we have a lot longer to go than 24 hours.

That’s 13 in the pink and 12 in the stink up here.

[codfishsnowman]

14 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Then you'll also be shocked to know the GFS has existed since 1980.

Yes...Geoff Fox and Nancy Aborn were big rip and readers of it back in the dark ages

[WeatherWilly]

What's 500 miles between a few model friends.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That’s 13 in the pink and 12 in the stink up here.

You want to be in the pink pivot point

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro came 1/3 too 2/5ths back actually. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes me feel better about my big hedge on first call map

We are in this together . 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s 13 in the desirable area and 12 in the undesirable area up here.

hey this is family friendly forum!

[TalcottWx]

We tried to tell em 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That’s 13 in the pink and 12 in the stink up here.

Looks like you could go either way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We are in this together . 

Yea, you stayed the course, too. No high fives yet, though.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL no.

Clearly not paying attention outside E MA.

I have been going back and forth between mostly whiff and 12"+ for a while. 

Most central and western zones have been doing the same thing. 

Bob doesn't want to hear dissent this evening.  Just mowing down anyone who says otherwise.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Guess you haven't paid attention for here either,  18z runs outside Euro, were run of the mill nuisance.

Yes, because you consider anything less than 24" to be not worth your time, I think.

I'm just trying to explain why those on the western and northern areas around your E MA bubble are on edge. The last two days of runs have literally bounced between MECS and zilch every 6 hours while you bounced between 18 and 36.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The 18z gfs is slower and more west with the energy that eventually gets buried out west. To my untrained eye (mets here, correct me if I am wrong) it looks like the energy is digging faster and is farther east. In my opinion this tells me gfs and nam are wrong with burying the energy. 
 

edit- not my map

I don’t know how anybody can discern anything out of that finger paint …wtf is that mélange 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some of the members go over the cape

West could be best 

[MarkO]

Still only 4 in the stink, 1 in the pink up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, you stayed the course, too. No high fives yet, though.

No way. But it’s prudent to not give up 3 days out because a few models are a miss. I know you know this. Just was surprised to see today. And sure.. those folks might be right 

[ineedsnow]

some of the recon data should be in the models at 0z I would think

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Bob doesn't want to hear dissent this evening.  Just mowing down anyone who says otherwise.

If we can make this an all out love, we pray. It’s more fun when all are involved. It’s hard witj our geography, but hopefully we all can get something. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

West could be best 

Definitely. I had the deformation from you to ORH to KASH as it was...

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Just checked the 21z sref plumes because why the hell not.  Still a lot of misses and only some hits but the hits are huge. One gives KBDR 37.5 inches lol

But aren’t 21z serfs run off of NAM 18z inits?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No way. But it’s prudent to not give up 3 days out because a few models are a miss. I know you know this. Just was surprised to see today. And sure.. those folks might be right 

Well said

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event.

And we have a lot longer to go than 24 hours.

Interestingly.. few.. if any of those show the whiffs that were tossed around . 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Bob doesn't want to hear dissent this evening.  Just mowing down anyone who says otherwise.

I kinda want his lawn abused.