Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dryslot]

Its lost most of the eastern outliers now and has a few more tucked west of the mean, That's a signal.

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

72 hours...wow

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

[mattm4242]

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that's a pretty good jump west on the EPS. Didn't expect to see that at all. 

If the ol’ boy caves after this, there will need to be beating until morale improves.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

nudity

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, Hoth said:

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

When they stop looking better than the OP.

[Johnno]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yeah that's a pretty good jump west on the EPS. Didn't expect to see that at all. 

Did you post the evening snowfall map  here? Didn’t see it on your Twitter 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

About now, But...

[40/70 Benchmark]

This reminds me of a more powerful 3/14/18...more s stream here, though

[CoastalWx]

Mean getting close to op. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

When they show less snow.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

nudity

Deform city.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

00z tonight is when I'd start leaning towards the OP runs of the globals.  60-72hrs from onset, we should see models narrowing the goalposts enough to rely on the ensembles less.  Still out of range of the hires models.

[Sn0waddict]

Anyone got a comp to the 12z EPS?

[MarkO]

ECM 18HR helping some off the Tobin

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Did you post the evening snowfall map  here? Didn’t see it on your Twitter 

I didn't. I had one ready to go and pulled it right before the 4.

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah that's a pretty good jump west on the EPS. Didn't expect to see that at all. 

And a very impressive cluster shifting west.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

I think the typical consensus is once you start getting inside of 3 days so probably pretty close. But because of the continued uncertainties they might be useful even inside day 3. This is because if you have more members leaning in one direction, even if it's opposing the op, it may be hard to ignore that probability. 

[Johnno]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I didn't. I had one ready to go and pulled it right before the 4.

Don’t blame you lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not saying you specifically (maybe? I dont know) but part of the problem is that people include really crappy, unreliable models in their determination of what the trend is. The ICON and NAM have no business being factored into anything. They should be ignored - seriously. GFS and CMC suites weren't great today. UKMET kind of stinks with coastals but actually came west from 0z. Euro was really far west this morning and came back east some at 12z, but it just held serve (and more importantly, even slightly reversed the trend out in the southwest - hopefully a sign of stabilization).

BOX AFD pretty much covers it...some east shift today, but still lots to be figured out.

All good but yea, I agree. I only weigh the big 4, Euro, gfs, uk, cmc, so when the only amped model which has an amped bias starting sliding east at 0z last night towards the other 3, in addition to past experience, yea it was frustrating (won’t deny it). Like, at some point, you’d think the ‘best model’ will score one for this backyard because it has given us several big events in the past inside d3 but end up wrong. 

[The 4 Seasons]

This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event.

And we have a lot longer to go than 24 hours.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

At what point do we generally put away ensembles and weight the op more?

EPS still have some value. GEFS less so imho - they seem to track the OP way too much. I prefer the spread on the EPS.

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We stay the course.

Well yeah. The models have been the same for your area for like 3 days now...

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the typical consensus is once you start getting inside of 3 days so probably pretty close. But because of the continued uncertainties they might be useful even inside day 3. This is because if you have more members leaning in one direction, even if it's opposing the op, it may be hard to ignore that probability. 

That signal west has been consistent too, That's why you can't get to emotional on some of these OP runs, Lot of nuances up stream reeking havoc with down stream results, Those should start to resolve themselves with the higher skilled guidance coming up.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Well yeah. The models have been the same for your area for like 3 days now...

And yours too.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2/3s of EPS members are big hits back to HFD.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Well yeah. The models have been the same for your area, giving you feet, for like 3 days now...

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That signal west has been consistent too, That's why you can't get to emotional on some of these OP runs, Lot of nuances up stream reeking havoc with down stream results, Those should start to resolve themselves with the higher skilled guidance coming up.

Bingo

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event.

I just want massive latent heat release down south to pump the heights, just enough to pull this 30-50 miles west would make an enormous difference.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All good but yea, I agree. I only weigh the big 4, Euro, gfs, uk, cmc, so when the only amped model which has an amped bias starting sliding east at 0z last night towards the other 3, in addition to past experience, yea it was frustrating (won’t deny it). Like, at some point, you’d think the ‘best model’ will score one for this backyard because it has given us several big events in the past inside d3 but end up wrong. 

Sure...lots of details to be figured out still over the next 24 hours. I'm not saying to lock the Euro in and call it a day.