Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, tomcatct said:

Jan 96

I was a senior in HS for that so I'll take your word on that. That's like the dinosaur age of modeling.

[mob1]

EPS look great as well. Weird model battle. 

[weatherwiz]

at 66hr

[bishbish777]

Really amazing to see the major differences between the Euro and the other major models at such a short lead time. Truthfully, the differences are probably not so big, but small shifts are leading to huge differences in outcome at this juncture. Should be really exciting next few days..

[ineedsnow]

Recon is out sampling 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

EPS look great as well. Weird model battle. 

Shifted west

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's what I love with bufkit...the cobb11. Seems to do pretty well with ratios. Although sometimes I think maybe slightly overdone but usually I'll just go with a few ticks below what it's output is (depending on the situation)

I mostly stick to the Cobb on there too.

Locally (PWM) it looks like the EPS has been steadily trending lower with QPF for the last 5 runs. 90th percentile only changed about 3 inches (17 to 14 inches give or take), but the 10th percentile (basically expect at least that much) went from 5 inches to 0. Shows you how the lead pipe lock has been taken off the table.

[weatherwiz]

72 hours...wow

[LakeEffectKing]

25 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I've never met Wiz in person. Is he like covered in webs?

I have...and no...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ensemble members have been consistently west of the mean, Now its time for the OP to show its cards.

I admit the eps has had left leaners for days which was a big reason for our optimism but it hasn’t propagated to the op yet, outside of the 0z run from two nights ago.

 

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

0.5 qpf gets all the way to the nw nyc suburbs...I think if it verified, that would be a pretty decent snowfall for you.

I try to take one run at face value but the trends instead. So far, 18z euro is just a blip within the east trends. If 0z ticks nw some and others tick too, then we have something. 

[ineedsnow]

EPS looks really good atleast 0z will be fun to watch come in

[ineedsnow]

some of the members go over the cape

[Sn0waddict]

Definitely some tucky tucky members in there.

 

also I cannot believe the JMA has been around since 96. Imagine being that mediocre for over 25 years.

[tomcatct]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I was a senior in HS for that so I'll take your word on that. That's like the dinosaur age of modeling.

It's funny, I remember Brad field mentioning on the 6 pm news days before the storm that one of the lesser relied upon models,  he said the Japanese model, is showing a blizzard..all  on it's own.

IMO, he was an excellent met. 

[moneypitmike]

Got a 78h map there, Wiz?

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

48 minutes ago, George001 said:

The 18z gfs is slower and more west with the energy that eventually gets buried out west. To my untrained eye (mets here, correct me if I am wrong) it looks like the energy is digging faster and is farther east. In my opinion this tells me gfs and nam are wrong with burying the energy. 
 

edit- not my map

Is this a Van Gogh?

[WeatherWilly]

EPS admires the Euro. Wants to be like it someday. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Definitely some tucky tucky members in there.

 

also I cannot believe the JMA has been around since 96. Imagine being that mediocre for over 25 years.

You don’t have to imagine, just be a Knicks and Jets fan.

[codfishsnowman]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol yea and also, his words, not mine: “I can’t even remember how many 20+ events I have had the last 10yrs, too many to list.”

Its true though, he isn't exaggerating.... furthermore he has had piles of cute but potent smaller events (quick 2 to 4 plus) that have seemingly come out of nowhere for his area....He is the Savoy or Florida mass of the south coast

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

72 hours...wow

Just goes to show if it phases early, the capture happens and it'll come far west.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Got a 78h map there, Wiz?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Definitely some tucky tucky members in there.

 

also I cannot believe the JMA has been around since 96. Imagine being that mediocre for over 25 years.

Then you'll also be shocked to know the GFS has existed since 1980.

[CT Rain]

Yeah that's a pretty good jump west on the EPS. Didn't expect to see that at all. 

[ineedsnow]

[PhineasC]

Wow at the EPS members. Some real tucked ones in there. Maybe 00z will turn some things around.

[Baroclinic Zone]

We stay the course.

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

It's funny, I remember Brad field mentioning on the 6 pm news days before the storm that one of the lesser relied upon models,  he said the Japanese model, is showing a blizzard..all  on it's own.

IMO, he was an excellent met. 

True. I remember that.  

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is way amped, not what I expected at all

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I try to take one run at face value but the trends instead. So far, 18z euro is just a blip within the east trends. If 0z ticks nw some and others tick too, then we have something. 

Not saying you specifically (maybe? I dont know) but part of the problem is that people include really crappy, unreliable models in their determination of what the trend is. The ICON and NAM have no business being factored into anything. They should be ignored - seriously. GFS and CMC suites weren't great today. UKMET kind of stinks with coastals but actually came west from 0z. Euro was really far west this morning and came back east some at 12z, but it just held serve (and more importantly, even slightly reversed the trend out in the southwest - hopefully a sign of stabilization).

BOX AFD pretty much covers it...some east shift today, but still lots to be figured out.

[WeatherWilly]

Western edge gets pretty close to Euro.