Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, dryslot said:

It also save you guys from locking the thread and starting over.

Some other forums would have locked it by now.

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's an attempt to estimate ratios using temps.

This is the Kuchera algorithm via Earl Barker...

 

you could have low level arctic air with poor growth near the dry slot and it will show 20:1

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Another view of the Kuchie koo 

Please toss away 

It’s not far from correct in the east but too overzealous in the west. 

[mattm4242]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya if you go out to hr90 that map was only to 78 

This run was needed, emotionally.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Kuchie is over 30” for all of eastern ma 

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z Kuchie Clowns    Euro vs Nam

Thanks.  Let's keep that 37" right where it is.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It’s garbage.   But pretty garbage

[IowaStorm05]

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z Kuchie Clowns    Euro vs Nam

Ok so maybe something technically does call for 15 inches in Hartford. All things considered tho i dont trust it. She looks nice, but im not giving her my PIN number

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

you could have low level arctic air with poor growth near the dry slot and it will show 20:1

Yeah it fails in our SWFEs a lot with the midlevel warm tongues.

Cobb is pretty decent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s garbage.   But pretty garbage

It can nail the the max zone on coastals as those will involve great snow growth but way overdone in the subby zones. 

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Another view of the Kuchie koo 

Please toss away 

Not over then in E areas.  Another 9" falls here after that going into Sunday morning.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I feel the same way with this setup.  Ensm have been the way to go up till now I feel.  The 00z runs should shake this out and determine if whatever was ingested into the 18z NCEP is real or not.

Ensemble members have been consistently west of the mean, Now its time for the OP to show its cards.

[weatherwiz]

Sweet 18z EPS rolling out. Trying to telepathically send good vibes.  

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not far from correct in the east but too overzealous in the west. 

0.5 qpf gets all the way to the nw nyc suburbs...I think if it verified, that would be a pretty decent snowfall for you.

[dendrite]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can nail the the max zone on coastals as those will involve great snow growth but way overdone in the subby zones. 

Yeah it was going wild in the deform band last December and we still got more than what the Kuchies showed.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya if you go out to hr90 that map was only to 78 

Had some 30 burgers in there

[ice1972]

Didn’t Jan 2005 do this?  JMA sniffed that one out….

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

Didn’t Jan 2005 do this?  JMA sniffed that one out….

The only credit I remember the JMA ever getting was for Feb 06.

[Johnno]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

0.5 qpf gets all the way to the nw nyc suburbs...I think if it verified, that would be a pretty decent snowfall for you.

Yea can’t hate that look verbatim, at this point I’d consider 6” a win 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

The only credit I remember the JMA ever getting was for Feb 06.

And Boxing Day, 2010.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

The only credit I remember the JMa ever getting was for Feb 06.

I hope nobody actually thinks the JMA sniffed out anything here. It kept getting lucky by placing a surface low in the same spot even though h5 was completely different each run, and I just thought it was funny.

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's an attempt to estimate ratios using temps.

This is the Kuchera algorithm via Earl Barker...

I would honestly be fine if step 3 was just keep the ratio 12:1

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it fails in our SWFEs a lot with the midlevel warm tongues.

Cobb is pretty decent.

Cobb for those that don't know uses temp, RH, and lift to determine a snow ratio. Not perfect but probably the most scientific.

[dryslot]

That's a bump to the west on the 18z EPS from 12z.

[tomcatct]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The only credit I remember the JMA ever getting was for Feb 06.

Jan 96

[ice1972]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

And Boxing Day, 2010.

Oh fuk no….don’t say that word in here….

[dendrite]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I hope nobody actually thinks the JMA sniffed out anything here. It kept getting lucky by placing a surface low in the same spot even though h5 was completely different each run, and I just thought it was funny.

George is adding it to his Big 4.

[PhineasC]

That was the best run for here since 00z last night GGEM. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I would honestly be fine if step 3 was just keep the ratio 12:1

Cobb for those that don't know uses temp, RH, and lift to determine a snow ratio. Not perfect but probably the most scientific.

That's what I love with bufkit...the cobb11. Seems to do pretty well with ratios. Although sometimes I think maybe slightly overdone but usually I'll just go with a few ticks below what it's output is (depending on the situation)

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I believe ray mentioned this for a while…. Thought it would stall further NE. 
 

My lord I hope the euro is right 

Yea, I'll look good if the Euro is right,  but jesus, otherwise I look like an ass.

I mentioned the JMA the other day, but been dead on consistent...most by far for days. It did nail Feb 2006...

[codfishsnowman]

59 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe we should wait till Sunday?

Well maybe by Sunday the euro will have this figured out without all the false bells and whistles to torture snow lovers