Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weatherwiz]

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It came back down 

If we can’t get real winter here, I’m totally on board with nuclear winter  

Seriously though, I agree. Not sure how some of these folks are able to walk upright with Cottonelle soft backbones. Winter is the worst around here.

Ok, that’s all the complaining I’ll do lol. Still think we get a significant warning level event for the entire state. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ScituateWX said:

Weenie question.  When looking at snowfall maps (which I know should be taken with a grain of salt) what is meant by the kuchera ratio that folks have been posting and talking about?  Thanks!

“I basically manually curve-fit data from various snow events I was aware of around that time [2004] until I was happy with it. Of note, the bifurcation at 271.16 K was to try to account for melting effects after the snow was on the ground for warmer events. So I really was trying to aim at the storm total snowfall that a COOP observer or member of the public would measure, not a pure, by-the-book snowfall properly measured and cleared from a snow board.” — Evan Kuchera

[IowaStorm05]

2 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

Weenie question.  When looking at snowfall maps (which I know should be taken with a grain of salt) what is meant by the kuchera ratio that folks have been posting and talking about?  Thanks!

In laymens terms, to me, it means the model takes into account the atmospheric conditions to try and figure out what the snow accums will be based on the water content likely in said conditions rather than just basing it on a generic 10:1 ratio

[HalloweenGale]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

And if you kill a spider, it will rain.

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

Was that the 18z spider or the 12z spider?

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Has been in my house for over a decade now.

offering fava beans and a nice chianti?

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

"Beyond Computation: The Reintroduction of Magical Thinking to Meteorological Pursuits"

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Are winds much of a factor in the new EC?

Not extreme, but not boring.

[Johnno]

Not bad….still needs some ticks west for WoR but better then the other 18z

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

I've never met Wiz in person. Is he like covered in webs?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

Only if you let it crawl in bed with you so your call to which way you want this storm to go.

[ORH_wxman]

The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

“I basically manually curve-fit data from various snow events I was aware of around that time [2004] until I was happy with it. Of note, the bifurcation at 271.16 K was to try to account for melting effects after the snow was on the ground for warmer events. So I really was trying to aim at the storm total snowfall that a COOP observer or member of the public would measure, not a pure, by-the-book snowfall properly measured and cleared from a snow board.” — Evan Kuchera

It's honestly fine near freezing, it will melt your face off when the temps are cold. 

[TalcottWx]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stalls in a great place for BOS.

Lmao. God. 

[The 4 Seasons]

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Lmao. God. 

[hudsonvalley21]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming 

Keep a can of Raid nearby 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

Can anyone tell me why the Kuchera is used and if it's ever actually verified? 

[RDRY]

Such a touchy setup. SW in California; PV dropping south; speed, depth and orientation of the trough; surface placement of the coastal low. Any of them with major downstream impacts. And still enough lead time.

[George001]

now watch things somehow get really crazy at 0z, imagine if the Canadian has a blizzard, Euro has an inland runner and the low just….. disappears on the Nam. Not out to sea, not weaker, but literally not having a low, just a cold front or something. 

[wxeyeNH]

18Z Kuchie Clowns    Euro vs Nam

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Can anyone tell me why the Kuchera is used and if it's ever actually verified? 

Another chance to see big snow totals if the 10:1 maps are failing 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Another view of the Kuchie koo 

Please toss away 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Can anyone tell me why the Kuchera is used and if it's ever actually verified? 

It's an attempt to estimate ratios using temps.

This is the Kuchera algorithm via Earl Barker...

Quote

1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in 
degrees K (MAXTMP)
2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid 
equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)
3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid 
equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z. 

I feel the same way with this setup.  Ensm have been the way to go up till now I feel.  The 00z runs should shake this out and determine if whatever was ingested into the 18z NCEP is real or not.

[mattm4242]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Another view of the Kuchie koo 

Please toss away 

Can adjust up from there.

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

now watch things somehow get really crazy at 0z, imagine if the Canadian has a blizzard, Euro has an inland runner and the low just….. disappears on the Nam. Not out to sea, not weaker, but literally not having a low, just a cold front or something. 

I want a snow map. Do not forget the US virgin islands 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro coming in slightly better is a big deal imho to offset the earlier 18z trend. The euro has superior initialization so whatever the other guidance was “seeing”, it clearly didn’t affect the euro adversely. It doesn’t mean it’s right, but it makes me feel better about this not being some golden nugget piece of data that was ingested at 18z. 

It also saved you guys from locking the thread and starting over.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, mattm4242 said:

Can adjust up from there.

ya if you go out to hr90 that map was only to 78