Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Nice melt

Will the 18z Euro and EPS mean be OTS too? In your professional estimation? 

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This GD place sometimes. 

I know.  Sometimes I feel it is you against the world.  Shame.  

[tavwtby]

still laughing at the range here, soon to change I'm sure with current runs, but HA!

[OceanStWx]

And I tease Kevin about Kuchera. It can be really useful in situations that include mixed precip. 

But an all snow, especially cold snow, event is going to be .

His forecast high Saturday is 18, that will probably be the max temp below 500 mb. That gives him a Kuchera ratio of 18:1. I wouldn't be banking on that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

it's tough when you're relying on a capture...usually happens further N and E than expected.   The good news is we are 2 days out instead of 6 hrs.

They always do in fast flows. Models, the euro, overdo the phasing. Of course if this phased over the mountains of WV, it would be dead nuts accurate. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Will the 18z Euro and EPS mean be OTS too? In your professional estimation? 

OTS? I fully expect at least enough snow to ruin my saturday plans, if that's what you're asking.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will the 18z Euro and EPS mean be OTS too? In your professional estimation? 

 

The Euro will probably incrementally continue to tick east barring the GFS/CMC ideas being wrong which I guess is possible 

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

And I tease Kevin about Kuchera. It can be really useful in situations that include mixed precip. 

But an all snow, especially cold snow, event is going to be .

His forecast high Saturday is 18, that will probably be the max temp below 500 mb. That gives him a Kuchera ratio of 18:1. I wouldn't be banking on that.

kuchera vs 10:1 wasn't really the point. It was that he was obviously comparing an 18z kuchera map to a 12z 10:1 map. Nobody in their right mind could look at the rgem correctly and think it went northwest.

[George001]

Even on the more east models like the Nam the strength of the low is still deepening into the 970s and 960s. The surface outputs are complete bullshit, the precip shield would be much more expansive. The 500mb is closing off and there are 2 closed contours. That would still be a big storm even if the Nam was right. A 968 mb low with a precip shield that compact with a negatively tilted trough and closed off low? No way in hell!

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They always do in fast flows. Models, the euro, overdo the phasing. Of course if this phased over the mountains of WV, it would be dead nuts accurate. 

the lack of atlantic blocking too-both AO and NAO are positive.    

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

still laughing at the range here, soon to change I'm sure with current runs, but HA!

But it matches model runs over the last 24 hours, and that's what these probabilities are based off of. The reality is that we probably aren't able to narrow the range down to something smaller than 0-18" at this point.

[JC-CT]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The Euro will probably incrementally continue to tick east barring the GFS/CMC ideas being wrong which I guess is possible 

I feel like we are at that point where if they outside of their collective spread, they move together.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Harvey is backing off quickly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Even on the more east models like the Nam the strength of the low is still deepening into the 970s and 960s. The surface outputs are complete bullshit, the precip shield would be much more expansive. The 500mb is closing off and there are 2 closed contours. That would still be a big storm even if the Nam was right. A 968 mb low with a precip shield that compact with a negatively tilted trough and closed off low? No way in hell!

Harvey just said be thought it would be compact. 

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The decided consensus here today is the big storm is missing . Read the last 30 pages . Mets and others try to show why that’s not the case . I’m still on board for nice snow storm as I had said in my first call an hour or two ago .  You don’t bail because a few models shifted east 3 days out 

I’ll disagree in that most posts I read are just discussing model trends.  It is what it is. Still a long way to go with 48+ hours out. No one should be completely confident on any solution… but folks will watch and comment on how things are trending.

If it was moving west towards crushing ALB right now, the discussion would be if folks turn to rain…and you’d likely wonder why everyone is worried about an amped solution.  You have an ability to stay focused on it snowing and will live or die on that hill…which is what makes this forum entertaining and fun.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Harvey just said be thought it would be compact. 

Compact and moving faster than we initially thought. 

[Snowcrazed71]

My brother, who lives near the Bronx, just texted me.. " Bomb Blizzard ". I texted him back and said it's not happening or not having a blizzard or feet of snow especially where he is. He said the weather guy on his weather station in New York City just said 70% chance of blizzard conditions and heavy heavy snow for Saturday... But, that they'll have a better handle on it tomorrow. Lololol

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Even on the more east models like the Nam the strength of the low is still deepening into the 970s and 960s. The surface outputs are complete bullshit, the precip shield would be much more expansive. The 500mb is closing off and there are 2 closed contours. That would still be a big storm even if the Nam was right. A 968 mb low with a precip shield that compact with a negatively tilted trough and closed off low? No way in hell!

 

This is correct...the one thing the Euro/EPS has had correct for the last 2 days is the mass extending snow shield west of the low...there are tiny hints the last few Op runs of the GFS/CMC of that but especially so on some of their ensemble members that they are starting to pick that up...but if the low track is so far east it won't really matter to anyone

[DFRI]

6 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I know.  Sometimes I feel it is you against the world.  Shame.  

Brings it upon himself.

 

[IowaStorm05]

12 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Maybe St Johns

I have often pulled up reading and wiki about St. Johns. It is a sizeable city considering it is so far NE in comparison to places that are already considered "Northern", like New England.  In other words, I get an odd sensation while reading about it. You can tell that it is kind of somehow "Cut off" from the other humans of the rest of the world. And the buildings are painted colors considered atypical by New England standards.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I’ll disagree in that most posts I read are just discussing model trends.  It is what it is. Still a long way to go with 48+ hours out. No one should be completely confident on any solution… but folks will watch and comment on how things are trending.

It really wouldn't surprise me if the GFS completely shit the bed on this storm, nor if the canadian jumped into said bed, starting rolling around in it and then licked its ass.

What really bothers me is this:

[NotSureWeather]

Well I was 4 days sober then I saw the 18z NAM. Glad I waited until today to really believe in this storm. TWC is trash but for the last few days I’ve been at 20” max for this storm, today it dropped to 12” max. I live 5 mins from EWB.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I've seen biggies leave at this stage before, that said, NAM likely will not happen. That seems classic, only to correct a bit at 00z.

Someone mentioned a while back about the NAM continuity issues ... haha.  Like we expected otherwise but, it literally went from historic, to 0, in one run cycle.

No exaggeration.

30"

0"

...yeah, I'd call that a problem with continuity

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And I tease Kevin about Kuchera. It can be really useful in situations that include mixed precip. 

But an all snow, especially cold snow, event is going to be .

His forecast high Saturday is 18, that will probably be the max temp below 500 mb. That gives him a Kuchera ratio of 18:1. I wouldn't be banking on that.

What if it’s sunny and OTS like some of these guys have? Warmed than 18?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the lack of atlantic blocking too-both AO and NAO are positive.    

That’s what I meant with fast flow. If we had some semblance of a traffic jam in the maritimes, it’s a better outcome. There are other issues also though that have trended unfavorably.

[Patrick-02540]

2 minutes ago, DFRI said:

Brings it upon himself.

 

I am aware of that. Lol.

[Johnno]

Love how the inland runner on MLK day was locked in so well leading up and now this one just slip slides right away, brutal 

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Harvey is backing off quickly. 

Fool . Apparently he didn't notice the RGEM was way NW.

[George001]

We don’t need blocking for monster blizzards. Jan 2015 blizzard didn’t have blocking.

[JC-CT]

Just now, George001 said:

We don’t need blocking for monster blizzards. Jan 2015 blizzard didn’t have blocking.

thanks george