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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Does WPC still have a model diagnostic text discussion?

They do not:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

...but their 4 PM extended forecast discussion and 3:30 PM snow discussions did not mention anything regarding the 18z models, or how awful the NAM is.  Mostly referenced 00z/06z/12z trends today.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

“… for far coastal areas.” You forgot that part. :)  

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Kitzbuhel Craver

Kitzbuhel Craver

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

 

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-mslp_with_low_locs-3500800.png

:popcorn:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

24 hours from now when a huge hit is imminent as they all continue west. The last 12 hours of hundreds of melts and no snow calls we’ve seen today are going to be pretty fun to bump . 

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CT Valley Dryslot

CT Valley Dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure I’d call a small improvement in the gefs that have looked atrocious for several runs a victory. I guess we are really stuffing that gunshot wound from 18z with as much quick clot gauze as possible 

Unless of course all the NCEP models are wrong, which has happened before.

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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I don't understand why they use such big snow maps.

Literally no one in CT receives WCVB or WBZ over the air.

Internet?  Back in the 1970s, big NYC blackout (a lot of arson) in the Summer, our chimney antenna was picking up Rhode Island and Philadelphia TV stations.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Digityman said:

Newb question but are each of those weighted the same?   Is it truly the mean?  For example, lets say you have 10 members total and 8 of the 10 are on top of each other but you have 2 members 100 miles east, that can have a decent impact on the model, correct? 

Yes, equal weights in a sense. I'm no expert in modeling but there is probably some sort of neighborhood weighting to smooth things out a bit. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yes, equal weights in a sense. I'm no expert in modeling but there is probably some sort of neighborhood weighting to smooth things out a bit. 

I always figured it was just the average slp at that grid point for all the members. so those ones that go awry sometimes cause an elongation look. but i literally have just been guessing this entire time. someday i'd love to dive into the coding side of it

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IowaStorm05

IowaStorm05

Posted
Posted

Bearing in mind I am not a trained meteorologist, I can state a few things:

1. 06z and 18z model runs are not as accurate or precise as 12z and 00z

2. 18z CMC still shows a strong hit over  ESNE

3. Sampling has not occurred

4. NAM is exhibiting erratic behavior.

I do not enjay the models behavior this afternoon but we can't say she is gone quite yet.

 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's both true that it needs work and that it improved. The 18z MSLP is actually farther west and definitely stronger than 12z. It just also happens to be farther east than we want it.

spread decreased significantly this run, so hard to say how much that is driving the mslp increase

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

24 hours from now when a huge hit is imminent as they all continue west. The last 12 hours of hundreds of melts and no snow calls we’ve seen today are going to be pretty fun to bump . 

I just see no reason to melt when all we really don't have much more information than 12 hours ago or will 12 hours from now. 

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Ha. Chris is great but I dunno... I don't think the GEFS look very good at all to me. They are waaaaaay offshore.

Oh I never said they looked good! They just improved from 12z. :lol:

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Bearing in mind I am not a trained meteorologist, I can state a few things:

1. 06z and 18z model runs are not as accurate or precise as 12z and 00z

2. 18z CMC still shows a strong hit over  ESNE

3. Sampling has not occurred

4. NAM is exhibiting erratic behavior.

I do not enjay the models behavior this afternoon but we can't say she is gone quite yet.

 

This is demonstrably false. Each new model run is on average more accurate than the last when inside 3 days. Now beyond that models in general just aren't THAT good at nailing down outcomes.

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