Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[bristolri_wx]

6 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Does WPC still have a model diagnostic text discussion?

They do not:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

...but their 4 PM extended forecast discussion and 3:30 PM snow discussions did not mention anything regarding the 18z models, or how awful the NAM is.  Mostly referenced 00z/06z/12z trends today.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

“… for far coastal areas.” You forgot that part.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m not sure I’d call a small improvement in the gefs that have looked atrocious for several runs a victory. I guess we are really stuffing that gunshot wound from 18z with as much quick clot gauze as possible 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

 

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Great case for why ensembles are important. Despite the op GFS sending weenies swan diving off the Tobin, the ensemble actually improved in the mean, and likely brought more members in that direction vs a few outliers skewing things.

24 hours from now when a huge hit is imminent as they all continue west. The last 12 hours of hundreds of melts and no snow calls we’ve seen today are going to be pretty fun to bump . 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure I’d call a small improvement in the gefs that have looked atrocious for several runs a victory. I guess we are really stuffing that gunshot wound from 18z with as much quick clot gauze as possible 

Unless of course all the NCEP models are wrong, which has happened before.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I don't understand why they use such big snow maps.

Literally no one in CT receives WCVB or WBZ over the air.

Internet?  Back in the 1970s, big NYC blackout (a lot of arson) in the Summer, our chimney antenna was picking up Rhode Island and Philadelphia TV stations.

[JC-CT]

remember the 12z nam? good times

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Woof. That need A LOT of work.

Interesting that the majority of western solutions are stronger than the eastern solutions by a few mb...

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

 

Ha. Chris is great but I dunno... I don't think the GEFS look very good at all to me. They are waaaaaay offshore.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Digityman said:

Newb question but are each of those weighted the same?   Is it truly the mean?  For example, lets say you have 10 members total and 8 of the 10 are on top of each other but you have 2 members 100 miles east, that can have a decent impact on the model, correct? 

Yes, equal weights in a sense. I'm no expert in modeling but there is probably some sort of neighborhood weighting to smooth things out a bit. 

[bristolri_wx]

17 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I don't understand why they use such big snow maps.

Literally no one in CT receives WCVB or WBZ over the air.

People who live in Boston do leave the city and travel west... rarely... 

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

remember the 12z nam? good times

Yup, like a girl you loved who left you for a boyfriend in Bermuda.  

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yes, equal weights in a sense. I'm no expert in modeling but there is probably some sort of neighborhood weighting to smooth things out a bit. 

I always figured it was just the average slp at that grid point for all the members. so those ones that go awry sometimes cause an elongation look. but i literally have just been guessing this entire time. someday i'd love to dive into the coding side of it

[JC-CT]

Just now, Patrick-02540 said:

Yup, like a girl you loved who left you for a boyfriend in Bermuda.  

maybe we should join her

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

 

It's both true that it needs work and that it improved. The 18z MSLP is actually farther west and definitely stronger than 12z. It just also happens to be farther east than we want it.

[Heisy]

Going to head up from Philly Friday barring any more shifts east. Probably somewhere in SE MA, cape idk. Always enjoy my time up in NE. Was up there for 2013 and 2015, let's bring it home.

Ps. Sorry for the jinx 

[IowaStorm05]

Bearing in mind I am not a trained meteorologist, I can state a few things:

1. 06z and 18z model runs are not as accurate or precise as 12z and 00z

2. 18z CMC still shows a strong hit over  ESNE

3. Sampling has not occurred

4. NAM is exhibiting erratic behavior.

I do not enjay the models behavior this afternoon but we can't say she is gone quite yet.

 

[The Graupler]

Incredible how here and the Southeast thread are normally fighting with one another over the way the models fluctuate due to our r different climates but this went from a storm everybody gets hammered by to one everybody loses out on 

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's both true that it needs work and that it improved. The 18z MSLP is actually farther west and definitely stronger than 12z. It just also happens to be farther east than we want it.

spread decreased significantly this run, so hard to say how much that is driving the mslp increase

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

24 hours from now when a huge hit is imminent as they all continue west. The last 12 hours of hundreds of melts and no snow calls we’ve seen today are going to be pretty fun to bump . 

I just see no reason to melt when all we really don't have much more information than 12 hours ago or will 12 hours from now. 

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Ha. Chris is great but I dunno... I don't think the GEFS look very good at all to me. They are waaaaaay offshore.

Oh I never said they looked good! They just improved from 12z. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Huge bump NW 18z Reggie . Great trends this evening as the folks that called it over will start wondering why

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Going to head up from Philly Friday barring any more shifts east. Probably somewhere in SE MA, cape idk. Always enjoy my time up in NE. Was up there for 2013 and 2015, let's bring it home.

Ps. Sorry for the jinx 

Look for a place on George’s bank 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Bearing in mind I am not a trained meteorologist, I can state a few things:

1. 06z and 18z model runs are not as accurate or precise as 12z and 00z

2. 18z CMC still shows a strong hit over  ESNE

3. Sampling has not occurred

4. NAM is exhibiting erratic behavior.

I do not enjay the models behavior this afternoon but we can't say she is gone quite yet.

 

This is demonstrably false. Each new model run is on average more accurate than the last when inside 3 days. Now beyond that models in general just aren't THAT good at nailing down outcomes.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huge bump NW 18z Reggie . Great trends this evening as the folks that called it over will start wondering why

its east of 12z

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huge bump NW 18z Reggie . Great trends this evening as the folks that called it over will start wondering why

now do 10:1

[Torch Tiger]

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Lol, 1 mm? What is this, a blizzard for ants?

You're forgetting the fluff factor.  5,000:1

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

This is demonstrably false. Each new model run is on average more accurate than the last when inside 3 days. Now beyond that models in general just aren't THAT good at nailing down outcomes.

careful...don't tease the bear

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huge bump NW 18z Reggie . Great trends this evening as the folks that called it over will start wondering why

Here’s the last two runs.  If that’s a huge jump NW you are drunker than you think.  Top is old, bottom is new.