Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Torch Tiger]

it's certainly a possibility.  :/

 

John Homenuk

 

@jhomenuk

·

1h

 

That's about all we can truly discern at this range. There are a few mitigating factors for a bigger storm (noted above), but an impactful system is certainly still a possibility and ensembles are still advertising that potential. Happy tracking!

[Heisy]

Control usually follows closely to what the OP was going to show....it is a good model to use as a trending tool. Was first to pick up the Buffalo event before the OP.

This would have crushed SNE 

 

[PhineasC]

NJ-centric update.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NJ-centric update.

Part of me keeps visualizing this getting grander ...and sort of growing down the seaboard, as a major up this way becomes more coherent..  like each successive run, brings the QPF back SW... and we get back to the original solutions with this thing.  Proving the whole saga is ( same old saga) just model peregrinations.  I could see that ... Not forecasting that - yet.  But I could see that happening.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Part of me keeps visualizing this getting grander ...and sort of growing down the seaboard, as a major up this way becomes more coherent..  like each successive run, brings the QPF back SW... and we get back to the original solutions with this thing.  Proving the whole saga is ( same old saga) just model peregrinations.  I could see that ... Not forecasting that - yet.  But I could see that happening.

I'd bet a good majority of people here are thinking the same thing and will legitimately be disappointed if it doesn't.

Myself included.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I mean that they trend with the OP, not that they are perfectly clustered around it.

The next few runs will be telling I think. If the GFS and Euro OPs shift west, then it's probably a serious threat. But if the ensembles continue to be west of the OP and the OP doesn't budge, that's a flag against the ensembles.

You posting in here, after saying in the NYC subforum, we in SNE wish cast  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS made a significant jump towards a more amped solution. PNA ridging better, leading to more favorable momentum of the NS piece as well as a slower, deeper initial trough

Hm .. I think what this is showing ( me ) is that yes, the ridge in the west is becoming more stout/upright in successive means - that's "air" apparent ( n'yuk n'yuk)... And down stream, where that trough nadir is, it's really more about establishing a "correction vector" toward more amplitude -

again... where is the f'n operational run.  This is mind-boggling at this point, because almost invariably, ... the ensemble mean parrots the operational version - they are typically more so nondispersive they make people physically frustrated.  So this is anomalous in general, but anomalous relative to that performance arc. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'd bet a good majority of people here are thinking the same thing and will legitimately be disappointed if it doesn't.

Myself included.

I would hit a 6 inch fall at this point.

[WxWatcher007]

I'm not sold on anything, but here's a trend gif of the EPS for 18z Saturday. 

[dendrite]

The control is just a lower res version of the op. The ens members are perturbed from that.

[Heisy]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The control is just a lower res version of the op. The ens members are perturbed from that.

Yea exactly. I just use it as guesstimate during the off runs of what the OP "may" have shown if it went beyond 90 hours. I also use it as a trending tool. I obviously do not put much weight with it. Still, as a whole we got a nice trend towards what we want to see at 18z (gefs, eps)

[The 4 Seasons]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The control is just a lower res version of the op. The ens members are perturbed from that.

If its just a lower res version wouldn't it spit out the same solution as the op? I figured it would just look smoother/less detail i.e. lower res no matter what point in time you look at. This is the control and op run at hour 240 they look quite a bit different. I've always wondered this because i've heard a lot of other people say this as well

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If its just a lower res version wouldn't it spit out the same solution as the op? I figured it would just look smoother/less detail i.e. lower res no matter what point in time you look at. This is the control and op run at hour 240 they look quite a bit different. I've always wondered this because i've heard a lot of other people say this as well

Nope…doesn’t work that way. Lower res means fewer data points, different values, and different calculations. Plus you have chaos with the difference in rounding of values.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nope…doesn’t work that way. Lower res means fewer data points, different values, and different calculations. Plus you have chaos with the difference in rounding of values.

Well said… the less data and the lower the resolution, the more error downstream in time seems perfectly logical.

[DavisStraight]

WOW another great game

[PhineasC]

Go Bills!

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Go Bills!

Upstate NY represent!

[DJln491]

As a Pats fan, Josh Allen is going to be huge problem for years to come. Dude is a player. 

[DavisStraight]

Unreal games today

[PhineasC]

wow. Allen needs a miracle now.

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, DJln491 said:

As a Pats fan, Josh Allen is going to be huge problem for years to come. Dude is a player. 

So is Mahomes

[powderfreak]

What a game!  This is insane!  American Football at its finest this weekend.

[CoastalWx]

Football ftw

[WxWatcher007]

The NFL remains the best show on TV. What a weekend. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

What a game!  This is insane!  American Football at its finest this weekend.

This sportsball match has me on the edge of my seat cushion, indeed. I just opened a lager beer as well.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

As a Pats fan, Josh Allen is going to be huge problem for years to come. Dude is a player. 

He used to be an interception machine but he figured it out. Should be a good ending here.

[DavisStraight]

OMG, unfreakingbelievable

[JC-CT]

4 td game

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Wowowowowowow